Rates are through the roof and the 30yr is now above 3%, up 10bps. The market was supposed to Jimmy higher, but is being battered down. Your safe havens in commodities are being FESTOONED all over Wall Street, blood and guts everywhere. This is what happens when stagflation happens. We tried to warn you, tell you it could happen, but you chose not to listen. Now you are absorbing the consequences of your actions — as your brokerage accounts STEAM to zero.
In all seriousness, markets should go higher today, but not commodities. They are marked for dead — because of “demand destruction” or the idea of that. The global engine of GDP is slowing. Ergo, so will the demand for commodities. If the Fed is successful, we might see unemployment go to 7%, stocks down another 20%, and commodities down 50-75%. This is what they are attempting to do. Prove me wrong.
I’m having a late start today, so no trades so far. I own some refiners and all cash, down 12bps. Will update this fucking blog when I get a better look.
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That’s what they’re trying to do but so far still failing.
Look at those ISM numbers this morning. Everyone is focused on the indexes going “down”. But it’s a growth index, anything over 50 denotes expansion.
Even as certain trends decelerate, the ISM numbers show new orders, employment, backorders, prices paid and PMI all growing, and inventories are generally still declining. They’re just doing so a bit “slower”.
That Q1 GDP number remains an anomaly. I bet we can bur. Forward another 6-9 months before the economy contracts. I was betting 12-15 months before the GDP print but if I’m right that’s still a long time.
Burn forward*