This is the type of tape built to burn everyone. Bulls are long because the Fed, resumption of growth post virus, and because they’re fucking morons. Bears will end up getting ensnared and bankrupted because they’ll overstay their welcome and lose the trade. There are 1,000 reasons to be bearish here — only 1 reason to be long.
REMINDER: The Fed lost 2008-2009, because stocks dropped dead -75% before recovering. It took years to recover and many never had the chance because they got wiped clean.
I will word my next thoughts carefully and without hyperbole.
There is significant credit issues persisting now and central banks are throwing everything they have at it. On the surface, this is incredibly bullish for asset prices — but the X factor is COVID-19. How long will it last? No one believes stats out of China — just 82k infected whilst America is running hot towards 300k. Please.
I don’t need to remind you but everything is closed. Everything is shut in. The psychological affects of this event will persist for years, or until there is a vaccine.
I am bullish on consumer staples and long stocks like K, CPB, GIS, CLX, and HAIN — all higher today — because your supermarket is the only place for discretionary spending now. As unemployment checks roll in and government stimulus and bailouts, spending at your local grocer will only exacerbate. Stocks like KMB and CLX command higher multiples now because growth is about to hockey stick.
Aside from that, I am short banks, commercial Re, semis, and small caps. Fuck the market.
Today’s closed out trades.
(FRO -27%)
JNUG +1.5%
NVAX +5.5% (day trade)
W +2.9% (day trade)
BAND +1.35% (day trade)
NOTE: WTI ran up 13% today, after the TEXAS RAILROAD COMMISSIONER MADE AN INCREDULOUS APPEARANCE ON CNBC, talking shit.
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Well, well, well, Tyler Durden’s alter ego falls to earth. Hey now, the TICK’s grown a mighty big woodie in the last half-hour each day this week. If that isn’t a reason to light a fine cigar and enjoy being a man, I don’t know what might be!
The commissioner is talking greasy, Mr. Fly. If he turns out to be made of gas, we should bring out the Catherine wheel.
The Catherine Wheel, nice. Not a Gene Wolfe aficionado, are you?
____
Big fan of his torturer series. Love the morally ambiguous existentialism.
Jake!
Good to see you ’round here.
The only thing about China I believe is:
– They did lockdown hard and fast and their people followed it because they had no choice
– They were probably more used to social distancing and wearing masks than the US
No way to tell given China just lies about the protein content in baby food, to the financials of LK to pretty much everything.
But they locked it down hard.
We still have people in various states going to work as their towns aren’t in a shelter in place and peeps still flying about.
There will be a resurgence. Just don’t know when.
It may not stop.
Korea did it by being smart…no one has been more retarded about this than Trump and the USA. We ARE #1. In covid.
This is what we have become, unable to control our government or to react to forseeable threats.
Are we- Spoiled? Arrogant? Delusional? Lazy?
I think all of that. If we are #1 God help the world. But relax, we’re not. Yet the world, whether they admit it or not, looks to us for leadership.
Take care of yourself, World. A country that tells its states to take care of themselves cannot be trusted or relied upon, unless, possibly, the appropriate deference is granted to the Orange Antichrist. Prostrate yourselves.
Consider November. Alot can change politically between now and then. Also, a large swath of the populous may be dead broke by Thanksgiving. Throw in a resurgence of Corona in the fall and you have a perfect storm that could finish off the economy.
They locked down Wuhan so hard they boarded up flu houses and came back 2 weeks later when the smell got too bad. Now the city’s seven crematoria have been working for a week straight at 1,000 bodies a day, each…
____
Love to know your thoughts on:
– When do we stop this shelter in place?
– What do we do if there is a resurgence?
– How long before any type of vaccine would be realistically applied like a flu shot?
Couple months.
Depends not enough info.
Unless something that will work is already approved and on the shelf, January. If we’re lucky.
Not surprised it has spread so fast in the USA. Idiots still saying it’s just the flu and hitting the beaches.
There were for sure people believing this on east coast. They getting taken to court with a misdy on the spot if caught on the beach.
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article241371631.html
Overall none in the world have been more retarded in response to covid than the US of A. Good to know some used their heads.
Even in Missouri some counties with populations of 6k declared lockdowns.
Trump? LOL. Idiot in charge. Even idiots who voted for The Idiot know better.
Did we ever stand a chance? Will we actually learn?
We aren’t the country we used to be. We need to think at least two levels above the Trump IQ, but science deniers, the Trump base, are two hundred years behind. We have seven months.
“Overall none in the world have been more retarded in response to covid than the US of A.”
What are you just not paying attention to anywhere else?
China arrested doctors who tried to warn them.
Spain told people attending a feminism rally in fucking March was a matter of national responsibility to protect women.
Italy did nothing until they were the death capital of the world.
The UK didn’t just do nothing. After it was obvious to everyone else that doing nothing was not possible, they had NHS doctors come out spouting complete fucking nonsense about how the infection rate might be way higher than estimates and Boris Johnson decided the UK policy would be to just let every human catch it.
Angela Merkel’s initial policy response was telling Germany that every citizen should just expect to get sick.
Western Europe is the epicenter of this disease and they have way more cases than we do.
And then there are those small ex-Soviet satellites that are passing laws making it literally illegal to say the word “coronavirus”.
Whatever poorly fleshed out point that exists in your head, you cannot possibly believe the US has been the worst offender here.
I knew our government under Trump was fucked up, but check this shit out:
1) FEMA issues worldwide Request for Quotations for PPE
2) FEMA coordinates delivery of equipemnt tothe USA
**** 3) FEMA distributes said PPE to private medical distributors****
4) States bid against each other for said PPE
Un-fucking-beleivable, but it’s what Admiral Polowczyk said in the press conference and it’s right there in their policy:
“Upon arrival, PPE will be provided, in varying quantities, first to medical distributors in areas of greatest need; then, the remainder will be infused into the broader U.S. supply chain.”
https://www.fema.gov/fema-supply-chain-stabilization-task-force
Why isn’t FEMA putting this into the Federal stockpile and distributing itself to the States?
“Capitalize the profits (medical distributors), socialize the costs (FEMA logistics).”
Trump knows people who like the profit. Perhaps Trump has interest? Ha! You bet your ass!
Bidding wars. The federal government always wins. Trump chooses who gets it…”be nice to me”.
If this is the way we have to live kill me.
This country is disgusting under Trump.
“Why isn’t FEMA putting this into the Federal stockpile and distributing itself to the States?”
Probably because that would take way longer for the end locations like hospitals to receive the actual supplies and more people would die.
Let’s do some math. According to worst case scenarios if the virus is left to run its course without intervention, 1/3 of the population is infected and 2.2 million people die.
Our leaders decide not to do that and are going to spend $4 trillion dollars so far with predictions of up to $10 trillion in spending. This will save 2 million lives. Whats is $4 trillion divided by 2 million? What is $10 trillion divided by 2 million? Is what this country is going to look like in a year worth it?
Everyone will know someone this killed. Best case. Who would you sacrifice?
Let Nature make the call. Unlike the flu, this virus preys upon those who really don’t have that long to live anyway, that i feel is a significant factor in deciding waht course of action to take.
Ask these grandparents: do you want your grandkids to spend $millions to give you another 5 years of life? The probelm is that altough it doesn’t fell leik it yet – these interventiosn aren’t free.
However, it is kind of a false naraative, because much of the $2T will just help keep the wealth gap from shrinking through corporate bailouts, with little benefit for society and din’t need to be spent.
For example, I 100% agree that it it critical that the US have at least one airlien manufacturer (Boeing).. However, Boeing could ahve easily gone through bankruptcy. Congress didn’t save Boeing, they saved Boieing stockholders. .
WB sold airlines and I am long, also long energy, BAC, WFC, BA call(reload), casinos.
Let’s see if the world’s biggest casino goes bust Monday?
Expecting COVID carnage to ease Monday, at least in Europe if not in NYC.
The effin Street is bipolar by design.
In times like these, what kind of a leader will you rather have?
1. A soothsayer, hope giver who later, apologizes sincerely, if things really got out of hand.
2. A fear monger, a believer in a worst-case scenario, taking credit afterward if things turn out less dire?
Anybody but Trump. I stand on his record.
I would like someone who can sense the urgency of a crisis, and react decisively and with reason. Someone who can act for the common good; not to ask what’s in it for him.
Roosevelt. Truman. Ike. Kennedy. Johnson. Nixon ugh, still better. Ford. Carter. Reagan, Bush1, Clinton, Bush2, Obama, whoever is next.
Trump is a piece of shit. A selfish sociopath who can’t get past himself. A spoiled rich kid who only sees what he wants to see, who is used to firing those who will not entertain his delusions…that is the best case…those who see him as anything else are purposely ignorant. Ignorance is a value to them and Trump has shown them the way to ignorance nirvana.
Take all of your oxycontin at once and die. Let the rest of us put this country back together. Damn you people.
Honestly, you can’t see? Worse yet you think he was sent by God. FU. I know some of you believe that!
The financial industry had a great deal to do with this crisis. The ridiculous response of this administration did too…hoax, magical disappearance, contained, nothing is our fault, it’s our stuff, be nice to me (You’ll only get what I want you to have).
So Trump shows up and he wants a Bubble too. The most bigly beautiful Bubble you ever saw. At least until November 3. After that fuck it.
He damn near made it. Rot in hell.
If only right wingers had a brain. If only liberals could get something done. But it’s only one or the other. The human condition. Fuck me.
Humanity is failing. We have reached our limits.
Ha! I didn’t think a rant would occur when I started that. I proof read, and read again. I approve of this message.
TL;DR….
The problem with the Democarts is that they try to appease Republicans. Republcians play dirty. Witness:
1) the Trump lies
2) Mitch McConnels’ blocking the vote on Merrick Garland
3) voter suppression.
Republicans are a hollow party that can’t win the American people in a fair fight.
Also, the one area where Democrats *don’t* try to win over Republcians and Independants is the area in which the Majority of Americans are against them: social issues such as abortion, gay rights, etc. (I’m talkign the grey details). Instead they take a hard line, giving the Republicans a desperately-needed lifeline.
Why doesn’t a party just look at where the majority of Americans are, and just take those political positions?
Why is compromise so quick when it comes to corporate interests (such as and billion- or trillion- dolalr bailouts), but so difficult otherwise?
Numbers, Both need to appease the big money.
The dems biggest problem is diversity, dozens, or hundreds, of groups all want their agenda first.
Dems are too fair minded. They need to go for the kill, fuck bipartisanship.
Seems like a trick question
To political creatures, I don’t vote. (NYC)
Saying “Don’t worry, this thing isn’t a big deal and wil lbe gone soon, isn’t hope. It’s either delusion or willful ignorance, neither of which is Presidential.”
Now, later when he said, ” I want to reopen the country by Easter,” I’ll give him a pass on that. Just like most people, he wasn’t intelligent/educated enough to know how viruses spread, so he could have actaulyl beleived waht he said.
There was actaully a NY medical doctor on this blog who also thought this woudl only lead to 2000 US deaths just 2 weeks ago, so the ignorance is pervasive.
****
Clearly the media is biased. Unliek Trump, Gov. Cuomo hasn’t had to deal with “How did you le this situation get so bad? “Why wasn’t NY prepared?” type of questions. Nonetheless, his apporach is “Here are all the facts we know, here is waht we are doing (without lieing…), here’s how bad we think it will be, but it could be better or worse.” That is how to handle things. Trump’s administration is doing better, but they have still yet to take control of the PPE supply chain, instead making the problem worse (see my psot above). Also, now they (Jared) are pretending that the FEMA supplies aere only meant for Federal employees, which is NOT how FEMA does or should work.
I think things will get better for the red states. Trump is an evil piece of shit. Play games with people’s lives.
Btw The Orange Antichrist is hold his corona briefing. Spouting politics. He’s so cheap.
🙂 I understand.
For dawg.
Gave you a like Dawg…I probably wouldn’t have read it either!
Funny. So many doing that kind of thing who wouldn’t normally do that kind of thing.
I’d like to go to the country house and shoot some shit but I will respect the lockdown. Ammo could get precious anyway.
[ Work At Home For USA ]
?My last month paycheck was for 1500 dollars… All i did was simple online work from comfort at home for 3-4 hours/day that I got from this agency I discovered over the internet and they paid me for it 95 bucks every hour………Read More
Here’s the site unmasked: https://dailymailreport.com/
Report it here: https://www.ftccomplaintassistant.gov/
Well the good news is that we’ve seen some progress on the messaging out of the Trump task force. Still, since he “can’t see himself wearing a mask”, the oh so macho Trumptards will continue to go to stores unmasked and give the virus to lovely 19 year old girls who will then bring it home. What a dooosh.
i.e., the cash register staff ..etc
Most of the focus is on the US, but failing to control the outbreak in other neighboring countries (Mexico, Caribbean, Central America, South America, etc.) will elevate the risk of prolonging the outbreak.
If you need to see the magnitude of the colossal fuck up that we are now looking at in the US, and how that stacks up against how other countries have manged this, all in a handy dandy chart ,
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-out-of-many-one-36b886af37e9
If this were an Ichimoku candle chart , you would have a great big fucking green candle blowing through the roof of your house.
The enlightened , advanced ‘civilized ‘ western world cant even provide paper based face masks to their own population , but needs to go scrounging around Chinese an Asian factories begging them to take money for a few masks.
Are we tired of winning yet?
How many times are you ***suckers*** going to let Trump screw you over?
On Friday, Trump met with US oil CEOs. A reported asked him what came out of the meeting and wahst was discussed in terms of particulars such as cocnessions. The answer was basically nothing, except maybe *tariffs*. I boguht more DRIP in the Afterhours session.
This is an essentila problem that many investors don’t understand: In most oil producing countries (Middle East, RUssai, Venezuala, Nigeria, etc.), the Fedearl governements have a tight grip on – if not outright ownership of – the major oil companies. So it is relatively easy for them to adjust oil output. However, this is not the case in our privatize-the-profits sytesm here in the US. So it is much more complicated to reduce oil output. I’m not sure if it is even legal (without emergency poers), and there is still the question of *who* cuts and by *how much*. If somebody already redcued production due to falling oil prices, do they still have to cut more for example?
The other mistake that investors made (which I pointed out immediately) is that they never considered how Turmp (who is a terrible negotiator) could ahve gotten Saudi Arabia and Russia to agree to cut, when they coudln’t do it between themselves. As it tursn out, that was a problem that many understiamted to a huge degree:
“the OPEC+ (or R-OPEC) meeting scheduled for Monday has been delayed as Riyadh and Moscow have discovered a new reason to feud: arguing over who’s to blame for the collapse in oil prices.
…
it is unclear if the meeting will take place at all now that the diplomatic spat has reached the highest levels of the world’s top oil producers (Putin and the Saudi Oil Minister)
…
Which means that absent either Putin or MBS making some major concessions in what would be seen as a glaring sign of weakness (you can see why Trump lieks these guys), the record oil rally is about to go in reverse because the primary reason behind the oil price crash still looms: the world running out of oil storage in months if not weeks, and is why the Saudis, who have ramped up production to a record 12 million barrels a day in the past month and massively discounted the price of their oil, have insisted a new agreement must involve significant contributions from all OPEC+ nations and major producers outside the coalition, including the U.S. and Canada.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/after-record-rally-oil-faces-collapse-new-feud-erupts-between-saudis-and-russia-monday-opec
The thing I like the most about bear markets is that with emotions running hard **symetrically** as opposed to BTFD, it allows real price discovery. TSLA’s 10% intraday drop is another profitable example.
Numbers, good points (as usual) but the wild card is that Vlad and MBS want their stooge re-elected.