iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,179 Blog Posts

You Need to Be Scared Here

Gonna wrap this up. Why is this time different?

Exogenous even meets already loose Fed and global central bank policy means NO BULLETS in the chamber. Moreover, the Fed came out intraday to jawbone and markets went down anyway. They shot their load.

Behavior is being affected on a global scale, which means GDP will grind to a halt and probably go in the red.

More than that, we are seeing a wholesale collapse in all commodities and businesses are scaling back operations out of caution. While the uncertainty is present, it’s hard to buy stocks. Since we don’t know, my bias is for lower prices — even though we’re so oversold.

I look around me and see a sense of entitlement everywhere. Advisors screaming to their clients to hold stocks — mainly because their fees depend on it. We normalized $1.5t market caps and everyone thought it could last forever. Borrow billions to do share buybacks and hike dividends was the formula. Now with businesses slowing down — what’s left is the net result of grift and corporate malfeasance on a massive scale.

In the end, we get the market we deserve.

90% cash, long SOXS.

HAGW.

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20 comments

  1. The Equalizer

    The bear case for the weekend is pretty easy to make: is any good news likely to come out?

    Clearly not as far as the virus goes. We know there’s going to be no cure this weekend because this isn’t an episode of House MD in which all problems are solved in a 1-hour episode. It’s reasonable to presume that the weekend news flow will consist of a stream of countries reporting their first, second, and tenth community-originated cases. (because containment has failed.)

    Economically, I don’t want to gamble on either Fed (or coordinated central banks) policy or tariff suspension because I doubt anybody in the White House knows what, if anything, they’re going to do policy-wise over the weekend because there is no plan. Even if there was a plan, I still have no edge there because, not working inside the WH, I have no way to tell which policy option is favored, nor whether or not it is capable of producing the desired effect.

    Sitting on my hands for the rest of the session sounds like the best bet for me.

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  2. irma vep

    2000-2002

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  3. narcist

    Fat (and I mean PHAT) chance futures gap higher on Sunday.

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  4. narcist

    LMAO they already squeezing the shorts.

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  5. narcist

    Let’s not forget President Moron-A-Virus told everyone to buy stocks on Monday.

    Shut up and obey.

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  6. og

    That end of day ramp was amazing.

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  7. purdy

    Wow, some pops into the close. Look at GE. Global supply chains are now passe. USA USA. Mfg coming back to USA. Orange man saves the economy! Slashes Medicare and SS obligations by being slow to respond to virus that kills off 60 plusers! Tax cuts for all survivors!

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  8. pb

    Fucking A right! Thanks for the commentary, you never disappoint.

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  9. it is showtime

    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    ! WRONG

    NOTHING CAN STOP IT
    Dr. Fly
    Wed Feb 12 2020 1:02pm
    https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/02/12/nothing-can-stop-2/#sthash.ekBzR6Um.5d9rO2cZ.dpbs
    Just when you thought the market might stall or pause

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  10. numbersgame

    At 3:13pm, this article makes sense. However, it is based on obsolete market price action. Check out the close (DAQ even squeezed a gain) and AH.

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  11. bennyhill

    Thanks Fly, exactly what we needed to mark the bottom – a “this time is different” blog post.

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  12. moosh

    Extra tinned foil cap on… where is count Soros been? Is it true that Bloomberg has been paying people $150 per social post just to praise him? If the game is already set up by the media to bring down a president, what are the odds some super rich nefarious fellow pays people with nothing else to do, to just pretend they might have corona?

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  13. flea

    Was that the PPT I saw in there yesterday at 3:45 EST?

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  14. heckler

    Fly gonna need you to do some research on virus disinfection plays over the weekend. It’s looking increasingly likely that disinfecting / wiping down all school, public places, buses, etc will be the new norm for a while. I’ve got a small list here: SEE, OBCI, OLN, HAPP, PCYO.

    Thanks Friendo!

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  15. roguewave

    Monday.
    Joey 9-5 had his head down working all week. He knew there was a lot johnny-nonsense going on in the market, but his boss wants that work done – now.

    Over the weekend, he has time to assess the damage. Well Joey, what’ya gonna do on Monday morning?
    The Fed & PPT know this drill. What are they gonna do Mon?

    I have no idea, but I suspect it will be some crazy shit.
    PS
    I was going to post a youtube video for fun & emphasis; but they (gootube) don’t seem to like me anymore. I clicked on the video; they put on a 1+ minute advertisement – no option to skip it. After that they played a 1 hour and 20 minute advertisement – again, no option to skip it. Needless to say, I didn’t waste my time. I’ll get a vpn this weekend and see if that helps. Measure / counter-measure

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