I sold out of my TVIX and SOXS too god damned early. Had I known Trump would ruin and otherwise perfect rally, I would’ve held. But I didn’t. Those are the rules. I don’t make them up. Overnight trades are sold, win or loss, the next day. So I took a 0.5% loss in SOXS and a 5% ding in TVIX. So what both ETFs are sharply the fuck higher now and I would’ve made a fortune. So god damned what! You don’t see me lamenting over it — do you?
Those are the rules and I follow them without complaint.
On the plus side of things, my gold and silver stocks are giving shorts strokes now. The heat is hot because it’s fucking fire. The key tell now is oil, down nearly 8% — complete and utter destruction in the oil space. That shit is getting lit the fuck up. If you’re buying the dip in oil, you might as well hand your money over to a financial advisor and have him lose you money at a slower pace. Seriously, oil is cooked.
On a very interesting note, BOND YIELDS HAVE FUCKING COLLAPSED. Look at TLT. The 10yr is 1.89%, down an astounding 12bps.
Why did all of this happen? Fucking Trump, declaring war on China via Twitter. He even blamed them for our opioid crisis. This is autistic stuff.
…buy agricultural product from the U.S. in large quantities, but did not do so. Additionally, my friend President Xi said that he would stop the sale of Fentanyl to the United States – this never happened, and many Americans continue to die! Trade talks are continuing, and…
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 1, 2019
…during the talks the U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country. This does not include the 250 Billion Dollars already Tariffed at 25%…
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 1, 2019
…We look forward to continuing our positive dialogue with China on a comprehensive Trade Deal, and feel that the future between our two countries will be a very bright one!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 1, 2019
My advice:
Raise cash and be patient. I am 40% cash and about 25% precious metals. I will win, sir.
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Damn, if only I were long 30-year bonds. Oh wait…
You have been wrong for 10 years in a row.
I stomped you last fall.
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2018/12/14/happy-friday-4-trillion-losses-achieved-since-september/
I didn’t go long Treasuries until 2019, asnd they are up more than 10%.
Awesome. You needed a win after the beating you took with you poor entries trading volatility.
Some of my entires were early, but I’ll have you know that I had the cash (adding on) and the wisdom to understand that VIX 12/13 + market ATHs meant to hold on. My TVIX trades have produced a positive net return, although a lot of that was luck for holding on yesterday. However, I’ve seen plenty of traders (including Fly) hold at earnings and then credit their skill becuase the company beat.
Also, at least I have the guts to post my trades *before* they turn profitable.
If you held TVIX all that time, and you do not have a cranial implant which you use to control the Tweeter in Chief, you are simply a degenerate gambler.
Note that we had carryover to today from yestrerday’s devastation. It was just as likely that we would have had carryover from Wednesday and drop again on Thursday – even before trump’s tweet.
Note that I was not the only one with that thought: https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2019/07/31/alert-markets-destroyed-tomorrow/
If I was a gambler, I’d be holding stocks at ATHs while the China deal was still completely up in the air and the FED was considering dropping rates…
Or I’d be buying random micro-caps hoping for an overnight gain,
or buying companies right before earnings,
or buying FAANGS with 50+ PEs, just because it worked in the past.
That doesn’t sound at all like a trade deal with China.
You must not reproach yourself for selling early, Mr. Fly. Trump is capricious, and even my quantum models can’t predict what he will do next.
By the end of the year, gold and silver will be significantly higher. BTC will be $20k so Fly doesn’t have to chew off his arm on a YouTube vid. ETH will be around $700-900.
GOLD, Bitchezz!!
I was a bag holder in a variety of stocks yesterday and overnight, but was lucky I slipped out with a decent profit early in the day (LK for example). As far as politics go, I never question an Elephant’s proclivity to step on something.
The endgame here is that China will attempt to bring Trumps big beautiful stock market to its knees and for the fed to surrender the USD currency reserve in the process. This doesn’t end well.
Do you ever regret voting for him and encouraging others to do the same?
Do you think things would be any better under President Shitlery? We certainly would have not been as entertained.
Besides, no one was going to prevent us from hitting a brick wall. Trump is just getting us there a bit sooner perhaps.
” If you’re buying the dip in oil, you might as well hand your money over to a financial advisor and have him lose you money at a slower pace.”
Poetic! As a former FA, strangely, I take offense to that:)
“So what both ETFs are sharply the fuck higher now and I would’ve made a fortune. So god damned what! You don’t see me lamenting over it — do you?”
Ahem…No, not in the slightest!