I know what you’re thinking.
“Why can’t I be like Le Fly?”
You just can’t, so quit acting like me.
Lesser men sold gold and silver yesterday, during the pangs of the decline. Do you remember how dreadful it looked yesterday and then I said this?
If you’re not buying gold now, you should close your accounts and just put it all in $BTC
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) July 31, 2019
That’s just how I roll, bro.
What did I do today?
Oh, I don’t know. How about reconstruct the only Quant in town, on these internets, worth looking at and also sell out of my losers and book some small losses, in order to make room for some massive wins. How about that?
Doesn’t sounds like much and some might accuse me of making a big deal out of nothing — but fuck off.
I bought a few stocks today, based off the algorithmic greatness of Exodus.
Oh, what does that mean? (I am not insane for interviewing myself with fictitiously dumb questions)
It means momentum based algos leading me towards the promise land. This is what you called high probability hit rates, not so much different from an American bomber laying waste to some Middle East shit hole. This is what I do all day long.
Other than that, not much going on. Just running a world class trading room and data platform, making gazillions. No biggie.
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That’s only because only lesser men were still holding it.
ok, well, wow. I did not see that coming.
Yesterday was a classic Fed day head-fake. Seen it a million times.
Trade gold if you think you have an edge, but the long-term fundamentals aren’t there: no iflation to hedge against.
What people miss is that inflation as measured by the CPI and PPI is **consumer** driven. QE and low-interest rates provide stimuluis to **Investors**. Supply-side economics has been an utter failure, which is why the FED is able to drop rates at a time when rates are already near ATLs and the market is near ATHs.
High oil pirce in 2007-08 drove up inflation and gold, but then the Great Recssion crushed spending and gold fell. The QE was expected to boost inflation in 2010-11, so Gold rose again but it crashed and burned when inflation was a no-show.
So I guess you don’t believe the massive redistribution from the wealthy to the eaters, as pitched by the Dems over the last two nights, will ever happen.
It’s more of a reimbursement than a redistribution.
The corporate capture of legislative bodies has done well to fill the pockets of investors. Besides increasign the wealth gap, this has also raised housing costs for working families. This is waht tipped the election to Donald Trump in 2016 and waht will tip the election away from him in 2020: middle-class promises broken. The Tax Cut is Exhibit 1.
Also, just like when they elected Trump, the public will see these pitches/plans not as promises but as symbols of what the candidate believes in. Did anybody actaully expect Trump to make Mexico pay for the wall or to raise his own taxes?
Anyway, you can reply if you want, but I wan’t repond because Fly has a done a good job of moving this blog back to econmics and away from politics.
Dude, you can’t write a political screed and then congratulate Fly for keeping people responding to you …well, I guess you can …since you did.
here come the Trump tariffs.
In other news, the bulls are staging an impressive rally. However, this is based on a weak manufacturing (ISM) report? So bulls can choose from falling economy+falling interest rates or rising economoy + rising interest rates. An economist would choose the later, but investors have differnt ideas. Still, it seems that banks are screwed either way.
Are you watching XLF?
Did you note that it is nowhere near ATHs?
Did you note that it hasn’t even topped its pre-fall-2018 peak?
Did you note that it has been making higher lows, and is currently sitting at a make-or-break level on a weekly and monthly chart?
Did you see that it is currently on its 4th straight down day, including almost -1% on this strong rally day?
No, well, you have no business investing then. Even a rookie shoul be able to spot the price levels in the cahrt.
TL;DR: banks are showing weakness and the market won’t sustain a summer rally without them.
Did you mention the pathetic performance of small caps?
I caught a little short set up in /cl just after 8 this morning. Oil was the tell for stock rally skeptics. Lesser men missed it.
Fucking Tariff Man strikes again
“Lesser Men Sold Gold and Silver Yesterday”
– Le Fly Aug 1, 2019
Amen to that!
Massive money printing is a great thing. It redistributes the wealth from non talented bums to the 1% capable men.
I never thought that I would be making millions in my 30s but here I am.
It’s really not that hard to figure out what Trump likes…real estate, gold and the America that lets you get whatever you choose while having the best choices in the world. I’ll sprinkle in some technological advances in their big time, as well. You long semis?