This shit is drifting in the wind now. WTI is off by a staggering 6% now.
One or two things come to mind with crude.
Price action is rigged. Some sort of deal with Trump and Saudi Arabia was reached due to Wapo journalist killing. But that might be a stretch.
Or, China is slowing much faster than we previously expected. There is no third option. Choose.
Interestingly, crude stocks are only down by 1-3%, as if this collapse isn’t happening now.
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How did I miss this? Peter Navarro, director of trade and industrial policy, went fucking apeshit the other day over Wall Street’s meddling into Chinese trade relations, calling them ‘unregistered foreign agents.’
He went on about their interference and how it doesn’t serve the interests of the country. He even blamed Goldman Sachs and the globalists for the opioid crisis — saying because jobs were shipped overseas — people became fucking junkies.
No wonder why stocks have been getting hit.
Kudlow just offered a rebuttal to those comments, saying “He was not speaking for the president, nor was he speaking for the administration. “His remarks were way off base. They were not authorized by anybody. I actually think he did the president a great disservice.”
If the President is half as passionate and serious as Navarro, we might be in for an extended period of negotiations with China.
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I bought the following stocks — because I felt like it.
$RNG, $GRUB, $LABU, $MOS, $NVDA, $OKTA
Present cash levels are at 40%. Bear market rallies are the best, believe me. Lots of chatter about China trade talk now.
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This is a tough, tough tape — not for beginners. If I was all in on my trading account, I’d be having a meltdown right now. Instead, I am long SOXL and semis are doing just fine.
Go figure.
But the point remains. Buying into a tape with such poor technicals is very risky. You’re better off waiting for higher prices and when the technicals are better, than catching knives and trying to time the bottom.
That being said, there are two things to look for that can move markets.
1. China trade deal.
2. The Fed slowing down on ruining the economy via rate hikes.
At the moment, I am bullish for today’s tape — because of the semis. I am very curious about natural gas prices and find the overall market to be difficult and disgusting. Hence, I have 70% of my trading account in cash.
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I am a novice farmer, a pseudo intellectual when it comes to things pertaining to the land, so correct me if I’m wrong on any of these items — FarmerFAGS.
Shares of MOS are higher by 23% the past mo and the whole sector is doing well, alongside natural gas. Gas prices in Europe are at new highs and our prices are the highest since 2014. All of this is happening whilst the market gets crushed, so the coverage of these two items have gone mostly unnoticed.
Apparently, natural gas is used in the production of ammonia. It is used as a source of hydrogen. I don’t know if this is a chicken vs egg deal. All I know is prices are going higher and the earnings at MOS were good and getting better.
The share price is on a tear too.
Spot prices for fertilizers, through the roof.
Here are some random notes I picked up while doing some digging.
Urea prices are higher due to increased Indian demand and also because of Iranian sanctions. Indian is no longer accepting supply from Iran — a major supplier of urea.
Production costs in Europe, due to high gas prices and limited Chinese exports have decreased supply.
This is an industry that seems to be insulated from the market environs. Now you know.
Stocks that I’m interested in now are MOS, IPI, UAN, NTR, SWN and NGS.
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You can always expect this sort of news to happen when markets get bad. This is a very important news item so pay attention.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Vice Premier Liu He have reportedly resumed discussions about a possible deal that would ease trade tensions.
Mnuchin and He spoke via phone on Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported.
The US is demanding that China put forth an offer before negotiations on a trade deal can begin, while China would like discussion to begin before making a formal proposal.
Trump is an ego-maniac. He will not permit his big beautiful stock market to be sullied. He will ensure a trade deal is worked out with China. That being said, we need to see if this actually moves the needle. At some point, there will be diminishing returns on US-China trade talks and we might even trade lower on the news. We cannot truly go into a bear market without a China trade deal done and the Fed removing themselves from this storyline. Now if we go lower in spite of those two things happening, then we have a problem.
Nasdaq futs are +40.
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I told you not to get hooked. You may be…HOOKED.
Markets slid by 600. If you’re still of the frame of mind that this cannot be a bear market, then you’re a delusional permanent-bull idiot. I don’t care how smart you think you are, listen to me — you’re a god damned idiot.
What to do?
RAISE CASH.
What should you do?
BUY TREASURIES.
What should you do?
Stop believing the hype. This market is literally built on a house of cards. It can go much lower.
That being said, lower markets force the Fed to stop raising rates and Trump to broker a deal with China. If we fell after those two things happened, then we’re really in for a harrowing decline.
How far can we fall?
Another 20% from today’s closing price.
Into the bell, I remain long SOXL, for a trade — TMF, a few stocks, and 70% cash. I am supremely positioned to buy the blood. That’s what I do and who I am.
Don’t act surprised.
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I anticipated this retesting of the lows, which we’re doing now. I was 70% cash heading into today, long LABD and TMF.
What were you doing — fuckhead? I bet you were long GE.
That’s who I am, and you’re nothing.
Good Father?
Fuck you, go home and play with your kids.
I am also long TLRY, which is spiking like a motherfucker now — because America has a love affair with drugs.
My only errors are staying long DOCU and DBX. But I had to be long something, otherwise I’d have no exposure to the upside. I also bought SOXL this morning, hoping for a bounce — but not depending on it. Don’t get it twisted, young man; I depend on nothing.
Long term, we’ll all be dead. In the interim, markets are behaving in a manner that looks and feels like a bear market. Sure, things can change. But right now we have to trade the market in front of us, not the one we hope to have.
You cannot repeat the past. We are but shadows on the wall, haunting refrains in the narrative of man. Make your time here count for something. Get off your asses and protect yourselves from the doom that is fast approaching.
My stop on SOXL is $91.
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Larry Culp, the CEO of GE, gave a calm and measured interview with CNBC’s David Faber this morning, the exact demeanor that got GE in this mess in the first place. This is a company built by Jack and destroyed by Jeff. Their acquisitions and asset sales have been horrendously ruinous throughout the years. And all of those chickens are coming home to roost now, with an underfunded pension of $31 billion and debt in excess of $115b.
GE has now entered the negative feedback loop. It’s an auto-catalyst that perpetuates itself until it’s gone. I’ve seen this countless times before and it almost always ends bad. GE must do something bold and quickly, else we’ll start to see credit agencies downgrade their debt, their lines of credit withdrawn, and the company forced into bankruptcy.
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Lots of fucked up cross currents today, especially with continued dollar strength. This tape is starting to look increasingly bearish and it has me thinking bear market, which is why I did the opposite and went long triple upside semis.
I sold my LABD for a ~9% gain. That I bought on Friday. Replacing it, I stepped in and bought SOXL — because why not? It’s a 5% position and I’m 70% cash. The market looks poisonous and I do not feel okay with keeping a triple inverse ETFs on a massive gap lower.
I’m looking for a little mean reversion here. This isn’t a high confidence trade, however. Just spit balling it.
My only other defensive stock is TMF — triple long bonds.
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