THE ERA OF THE BEAR HAS ENDED; BEHOLD A NEW ERA OF PEACE AND ELEGANCE

My brief encounter with VIX related products has ended, once again in a loss. I sold TVIX for a 5.5% loss. I was having bouts of PTSD watching it, as it behaved terribly as all VIX products do. For the love of Christ, can Mueller investigate Direxion and lock them up once and for all?

I bought SOXL, RP, and SPLK — but still hold 80% cash. No sense diving back in now, headlong, ahead of what could equate to a declaration of war on China.

Let’s see how it plays out. If we gap up hugely on Monday, I’ll be happy. If we collapse, I’ll still be happy.

Price action is bullish and so am I. For now.

Next week is likely the most important week of the trading year. We’ve chopped and slapped dicks against the wall for much of the year, drowned in our own blood the past month or two — and now we’re relying upon King Donald to forge a deal with President 11.

I am going to publish my final Quantitative portfolio of the year on Monday. I’m also formulating a new version of the Quant strategy for 2019 and will release details of it in the Exodus blog on Monday.

End of year re-jiggering means a new Bubble Basket, a sublime harmony of ill repute stocks that crushes any portfolio during times of wanton excess.

The Capstone Programme, my consulting arm and highest level of service to date, will be launched inside of two weeks. This means I will be exceedingly busy with one on one calls with members and will not have time to do live demos for Exodus. Book your live demos now.

“The Fly” is a wonderful teacher and a true renaissance man. Joining Exodus, even for our FREE TRIALS, will make you a better person. Plus, our trading room, The Pelican Room is lit AF.

Lastly, our mean reversion algorithms have been through the fires and will soon be accurately assessing trading ranges and pivots. Case in point, the 3 mo algorithm nailed the recent bottom to the exact day twice over the past month. This can only mean we’ve reached a point of calm normality and we will soon be entreated to mathematical excellence and easy wins inside our halls.

Why is oil below $50 today, down by more than 3%? Some argue that Trump tricked the House of Saud into fucking themselves. Others believe it’s forecasting a very weak Chinese economy. Whatever the reason for it, let me remind you that there are HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS in oil debt — fuckers who borrowed money to dig holes in the ground — hoping their team of geologists have the faintest idea of what they’re doing.

Truthfully, and this goes without saying, the market cannot go higher with oil so weak. We’ve become accustomed to seeing oil go up when growth is strong. This can only mean weaker than expected China. Maybe a US-China trade deal can reverse this tide; but I warn you against such pollyanna thinking. It may be too late. We might’ve already fucked ourselves, so severely, so monstrously, that stocks have no choice but to trend lower.

I will tell you this, very quietly: next week is the most important week of the year for stocks.

The brand of Trump is on the line. Do you hear me fuckers? He must close a deal, else all is lost and we’ll be vaporized into sub-atomic particles.

This is a straightforward trade. Do you think Trump can leave Argentina with good news or not? Place your fucking bets, for your financial future might depend on it.

Futures have recovered somewhat after a representative in team Trump said he thought the President’s meeting with Xi would be a ‘success.’ Also, Fed’s Kashkari said he doesn’t think rates should go up. These are the magic bullets I’ve been telling you about. What you need to concern yourselves with is the tone of the market AFTER these bullets have been fired. Then, of course, we’d have the specter of Federal Reserve easing and another round of QE, should things really go awry. We’ll always have a bid in stocks, which is why shorting them for a long period of time is stupid.

It’s a Friday and stocks do not bottom on Friday’s, god damn it. Who in their right mind will position heavily long into this news flow? By the time Trump gets back, Mueller himself will be waiting for him with handcuffs, taking him into Federal custody.

What foolishness, what wonderful foolishness, this country is.

Even the guy with the MAGA hat is cringing like fuck right now — as Trump descends into nonsensical banter about the virtues of duties on Chinese goods. HELLO, they don’t just import Hello Kitty shit. The entire store of Target and Walmart is filled with Chinese wares.

Billions of Dollars are pouring into the coffers of the U.S.A. because of the Tariffs being charged to China, and there is a long way to go. If companies don’t want to pay Tariffs, build in the U.S.A. Otherwise, lets just make our Country richer than ever before!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 29, 2018

That tweet, I believe, is genuine. He really things that shit.

But in reality…

More posturing by Dealer in Chief ahead of the all important dinner with Xi?

We’ll see soon.

It was a nice idea, rallying and all. But people must be afraid of Navarro leaning over the table and spitting in President Xi’s face this weekend. I must admit, the pin action looked very good for a short while, but then it all fell apart — the eastern winds of fate commingled with destiny have brought us to this conclusion.

The Fly will win again and again. You salty motherfuckers will cede, once and for all, cave into the pressures that are abundant without safe harbor. This new decline, fresh and ruinous, will wreak havoc on the greediest profession in America: investment advisors.

Absolute pole-smokers, absolutely, torn and shredded from their nice little fee based businesses models and harangued by 10,000 punching gorillas into a maelstrom of inexactitude. While some of you might escape, and others cleverly get by, the coming storm filled with cock-punching gorillas will annihilate you.

Eighty five percent cash, 10% TVIX — winning like Clubber Lang into the bell.

The whipsaw has begun. This is the most formidable and dangerous form of tape, one that cannot be analyzed or assessed for technical or fundamental attributes, but instead moves thinly based upon innuendo and veiled signs of news that may or may not be on the horizon. This is chicanery at its best, America trying to stem the flow of blood from markets and preserve our last refuge of dignity: capital markets.

The U.S. and China are said to be exploring a trade pact that would halt further tariffs from Washington in exchange for talks looking at major changes to Beijing’s economy policies.

Talks would center around a barrage of issues the U.S. has wanted Beijing to remedy, including intellectual property protections, the Wall Street Journal reported.

President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping are set to meet at a Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires on Saturday.

Note that doesn’t mean current tariffs will be reversed. By my count, we’re already taxing Chinese goods in nearly their entirety. I’m sure we can find something else to tax, but the damage, more or less, has been done. What markets are running higher on now is optimism, Mr. Navarro heading to g20 discussions to spit in the face of President Xi. I think it’s notable that Trump canceled his meeting with Putin; but that’s more likely related to Cohen ratting and Mueller fixing to indict his son.

What does a pleb do here?

Nothing.

I’m 85% cash in my trading account, 10% in TVIX — hoping for darker times.

Staying true to my bipolar ways, I am 100% invested in my Quant, with GLD and TLT positions making up 10%.

Without equivocation, the good folks at Twitter are certainly doing nefarious things over there — banning and blocking people — shadow banning, and suspending accounts based on rules that aren’t applied equally. On a personal level, I’d like to see all political tweets get erased and the account fucking banned for life. I get the fact that most Twitter employees are a certain distinction on the political landscape and they hate the guts of MAGA Trumpsters. Even still, it’s bad business to appear to be unjust — especially when your platform is a integral platform in disseminating news. This sort of bias will most certainly attract politically motivated regulation –also a negative for TWTR shareholders.

Politico reported last night that Fox News hasn’t tweeted to its 18 million followers since 11/8/18. Why?

How the fuck should I know?

It probably has something to do with the Tucker Carlson protests and how Twitter permitted his info to be disseminated.

And then there was the case of Jesse Kelly, a moribund mainstream Trumper who caught a ban for no reason at all. His ban caused two republican Senators to tweet shade at Jack, which then was met with an unbanning of Mr. Kelly. What a god damned coincidence.

Twitter recently banned a Marine vet & conservative pundit, Jesse Kelly, without explanation. This follows Twitter’s ban of Canadian feminist Megan Murphy for her speech. @jack told Congress Twitter doesn’t target political speech. Is that true?

— Josh Hawley (@HawleyMO) November 27, 2018

All of this horseshit is needling shareholders and causing distractions. While Twitter cannot permit Pizza-gaters to run around sticking their dicks in evert John Podesta pizza pie, they also can’t be seen as being unfair to ordinary retards. Let the people play in the sand and kick dirt in each other’s face, Jack. That’s what Twitter is for, a place where the intellectual elite and pavement ape meet for tea and crumpets.

Fucking Nasdaq jumped a quick 30 handles after Bloomberg reported the FUCKING LIE that Trump was close to a deal with China.

It’s worth noting, Zerohedge was first to tweet this news.

Now the unwind comes. People got in based on a lie and now have to sell. The selling will beget more selling, etc. These false stories make it WORSE for stocks, not better. Trump is desperately trying to buoy markets. I’d advise him to keep quiet, broker a deal, and then talk shit.

What can go wrong, fuckers?

This is the thesis.

The low vol environment had ended. The era of the Bear has begun. With that in mind, I believe we’ll see heightened volatility on a permanent basis, just like post 2007.

See the lull pre-financial crisis?

Now look at current lull. Same shit.

Yeah, that’s going to end and bring forth a new era in extreme panic. Also, I sold TNA and FAS for 4.5% gains. Also, I sold PYX for a single day 7.3% loss. The TNA and FAS positions were doubled weighted, 10% holdings, so that was a nice gain, especially for the holding period.

My cash is now 65% and I just bought some fucking TVIX, with an initial purchase at double weighting, at 10%.

The fear, naturally, is for a total and complete give back of yesterday’s gains. That would suck; but what would suck more if it happened and I didn’t own TVIX.