It’s all bullshit, really. Futures are getting banged around and I’m 75% cash, but I don’t feel smart or even lucky. As a matter of fact, I’m pretty sure markets will end up higher regardless and all of this trade war talk will end up being nothing more than a footnote in a market built for higher prices.
“Following President Trump’s threat of further escalation, we now think the probability that all imports from China will ultimately be subject to tariffs has risen to 60 percent,” the bank’s analysts wrote in a research note.
I do not speak out of hubris, or confidence, a self-assurance that my decisions are correct — as a result of decades of experience in markets. I’m more programmed by recent events to conclude that to bet against progress is to ruin oneself with hateful thoughts. Moreover, to harbor hateful thoughts is a waste of labor and spirit. I’ve always harangued myself with one hatred after the next, not knowing it was simply a reflection of my own unhappiness. My life could be better, naturally, as it could be much worse. I’m content with my place and my role, ebbing and flowing through markets and the internets — gaining new experience and laughing at the weak and the fat and the ugly.
Futures are lower, but everything is fine. Sleep well knowing by the time you awaken they will be higher.
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Trade wars are an in your face way to put inflation in the system. What will be interesting is whether this translates into higher wages long term. After all, need to inflate to make the debt worthless in the long run.