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Yearly Archives: 2017

FAKE NEWS ALERT: Trump Menaced Australian, Mexican Leaders, Threatened to Send Troops into Mexico

Since the media has proven to lie over and over again, using ‘anonymous’ sources as a shield to publish blatant propaganda — directed to hurt President Trump — paint me skeptical over tonight’s alleged ‘leaks’ that attempt to cast a negative hue over Trump’s discussions with foreign leaders.

Here are some of the comments made by Trump, according to the mysterious leaker.

Trump to Mexico’s Nieto:

“You have a bunch of bad hombres down there,” Trump told Pena Nieto, according to the excerpt given to AP. “You aren’t doing enough to stop them. I think your military is scared. Our military isn’t, so I just might send them down to take care of it.”

Mexico’s foreign relations dept calls bullshit on the report.

Mexico’s foreign relations department denied that account, saying it “is based on absolute falsehoods,” and later said the statement also applied to the excerpt provided to AP.

“The assertions that you make about said conversation do not correspond to the reality of it,” the statement said. “The tone was constructive and it was agreed by the presidents to continue working and that the teams will continue to meet frequently to construct an agreement that is positive for Mexico and for the United States.”

That was the first ‘bombshell’ to hit the internet, sending leftards to the lavatory for expeditious masturbation.

Then a phone call transcript between Trump and Australia’s Turnbull, or at least the juiciest part of it, was leaked to the AP — which showed an irate Trump pissed off over a deal that would force the United States to accept 1,250 refugees currently being held in Australia.

At one point Trump informed Turnbull that he had spoken with four other world leaders that day — including Russian President Vladi­mir Putin — and that “This was the worst call by far.”

“This is the worst deal ever,” Trump fumed as Turnbull attempted to confirm that the United States would honor its pledge to take in 1,250 refugees from an Australian detention center. Trump, who one day earlier had signed an executive order temporarily barring the admissions of refugees, complained that he was “going to get killed” politically and accused Australia of seeking to export the “next Boston bombers.”

So that’s it? This is the damaging details of Trump’s approach to flaccid leadership in both Mexico and Australia? My question is this: how could these transcripts leak to the media without it being traceable, or were they leaked by the foreign leaders themselves?

Or, is this another foray into the blissfully ignorant world of fake news?

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NONSENSE: Facebook Declares 25% of the World’s Population Uses Them

Facebook crushed earnings and the stock is up a little bit in the after hours. Everyone loves Mark Zuckerberg for creating the world’s best spy site, preferred by law enforcement officials everywhere. I get it and I’m not going to impugn his achievements, other than suggest his claim that nearly 2 billion people use $FB on a monthly basis is wholesale horseshit.

EPS: $1.41 per share vs. $1.31 per share, adjusted, expected by a Thomson Reuters consensus estimate
Revenue: $8.81 billion vs. $8.51 billion expected by Reuters
Monthly active users (MAUS): 1.96 billion vs. 1.83 billion expected by StreetAccount
Daily active users (DAUs): 1.23 billion vs. 1.19 billion expected by StreetAccount

Does anyone else think this is bullshit, or is it just me? Most of the world’s population can’t find food to eat this evening and you mean to tell me they’re facebooking that — maybe perhaps snapping photos of empty dinner plates?

If two billion people are using Facebook, approximately 25% of the world’s population, then I have an oil well to sell you in Brooklyn.

They’re bots and pet accounts — dead people and scams. The fuck out of with this shit.

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The Speculative Fever is Back; Bubble Basket Back in Vogue

I run several indexes inside Exodus, mostly to track certain things I view important to the health of the market. One of them is a semi annually adjusted ‘Bubble Basket’, which consists of 25 overvalued stocks — from all different walks of life.

Year to date, it’s higher by a staggering 13%, crushing everything else to ten thousand pieces.

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If this were to happen last year, I’d probably view it bearishly, since the onerous Obama regime was an oppressive form of government out to ruin prosperity. But since things are looking up now, via lower taxes, bigly cuts in regulations, fiscal stimulus etc, I view the fervor in the bubble basket as an indicator that animal spirits (extra Yolo Wolf) are running high.

All of the best markets I’ve ever traded in were bubbles. I fucking love bubbles and hope to trade in another one soon.

Speaking of bubbles, $FB just crushed earnings. Boring.

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NEW PURCHASE: Look at Me, I’m a Zinc Miner Now

In addition to current zinc related positions, $TECK, $HBM, I bought the world’s second largest zinc miner today, acquiring a stake in $VEDL — localed in the slums of India.

Since I was already fully invested, this is a foray into leverage, a world replete with broken dreams festooned with wolf masks.

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The price of zinc has risen by 73% over the past year, the best amongst base metals. The core thesis is infrastructure spending. Zinc is mainly used to galvanize stainless steel, used mostly in car production and infrastructure projects.
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In my estimation, it will be next to impossible for me to lose money on these investments over the next 6 months. The world is a fluid confluence of events, so let’s see how this pans out first, before I begin the celebratory festivities.

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U.S. Steel Sees Optimistic Future: ‘Trump is Remaining True to His Promises’

During this morning’s U.S. Steel earnings conference call,  CEO Mario Longhi said he was optimistic that tubular steel had bottomed and that  trade issues were improving thanks to tighter controls by US regulators to make sure Chinese companies weren’t circumventing the law and dumping government subsidized steel on American shores.

Additionally, he praised Donald Trump for remaining true to his campaign promises to encourage people to buy American and hire American — citing The Donald as being very open and curious — which he viewed as rightly optimistic for the state of his business.

Trade issues? It’s one of the areas where opportunity remains real. We continue to remain engaged, good work is being done. Commerce Dept is now issuing more details on what is being shipped and from where, this should help with enforcement.

Trump administration has openly declared they will do everything they can to enforce the trade laws. One area that remains a concern is circumvention. But co feels optimistic about trade issues. Co does not like to use the word protectionism, we are not asking for a favor. Rule of law needs to prevail everywhere and US Steel will remain vigilant, otherwise conditions will quickly return.

Can you break down $1 bln headwind forecast for raw materials in 2017? Coal prices are much higher in Europe, that’s really what’s driving it more than in the US.

What is Trump asking from you? Trump is remaining true to his promises, buy America, hire America. He has been very open and is paying attention. We think this is all very positive. He’s very curious and once cabinet in place, conversation will continue and action will follow which will be positive for the steel industry.

For the quarter, $X crushed earnings and guided up FY17 earnings to an astounding $3.08 v previously expected $1.67.

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.27 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.29 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.02); revenues rose 3.0% year/year to $2.65 bln vs the $2.67 bln Capital IQ Consensus.

Co issues upside guidance for FY17, sees EPS of $3.08 vs. $1.67 Capital IQ Consensus and EBITDA of ~$1.3 billion; Results for our Flat-Rolled, European, and Tubular segments to be higher than 2016; To be cash positive for the year, primarily due to improved cash from operations; and Other Businesses to be comparable to 2016 and ~$50 million of postretirement benefit expense.

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Over the past three months, shares of X have scorched higher by 69% — based off the hopes of a robust Trumponion fiscal stimulus budget. Any wall, bridge, tunnel or pipeline would likely require lots of American steel — which is the core thesis behind the shares of X.

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TEPCO TERMINATES CAMECO URANIUM CONTRACT; CAMECO REJECTS ANY SUCH TERMINATION AND PROMISES TO PURSUE ITS LAWFUL RIGHTS

Well this is interesting. Due to being burdened with regulatory issues in a post Fukushima Japan, the utility that underwent the meltdown, TEPCO, refused delivery of their monthly uranium shipment and informed $CCJ they’d terminated the contract.

In turn, Cameco rejected any such cancellation, based upon the law, and has promised to pursue their rights to seek payment from the insolent knaves at TEPCO.

Source: CAMECO
Cameco (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ) announced Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc. (TEPCO) has issued a termination notice for a uranium supply contract with Cameco Inc. that we do not accept. Cameco Inc. sees no basis for terminating the contract, considers TEPCO to be in default, and will pursue all its legal rights and remedies.

On January 31, 2017, TEPCO confirmed it would not accept a uranium delivery scheduled for February 1, 2017, and would not withdraw the contract termination notice it provided to Cameco Inc. on January 24, 2017. TEPCO alleges that an event of ‘force majeure’ has occurred because it has been unable to operate its nuclear generating plants for 18 consecutive months due to government regulations arising from the Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011.

“We are surprised and disappointed that TEPCO is seeking to terminate its contract given all the past productive discussions we have had to date,” said Tim Gitzel, president and CEO of Cameco. “For the past six years we have worked in good faith with TEPCO to restructure this contract, and would continue to do so if there was any basis for a commercial resolution. During the past week we tried to engage TEPCO to obtain clarification given conflicting information we had received previously from them and only received confirmation of their intent to terminate the contract yesterday.”

“Now we will vigorously pursue remedies to recover value for our shareholders and other stakeholders, as we have done successfully in the past.”

Under the contract, TEPCO has already received and paid for 2.2 million pounds of uranium since 2014. The termination would affect approximately 9.3 million pounds of uranium deliveries through 2028, worth approximately $1.3 billion in revenue to Cameco, including about $126 million in each of 2017, 2018 and 2019 based on 855,000 pounds of deliveries in each of those years.

In 2017, Cameco’s consolidated revenue, including the TEPCO volume, is expected to range between $2.1 billion to $2.2 billion. More information on Cameco’s 2017 outlook will be provided with our annual results which will be released after markets close on February 9, 2017.

Cameco Inc. will be moving expeditiously to enforce its rights under the uranium supply contract to recover losses arising from TEPCO’s actions. The uranium supply contract provides for disputes to be resolved by binding arbitration after a period of good faith negotiations. As with any commercial dispute, it will take some time for a resolution to be achieved, particularly if it proceeds all the way to arbitration.

Cameco has sufficient financial capacity to manage any loss of revenue in 2017 as a result of the dispute.

All estimates and uranium volumes are provided on a consolidated basis for Cameco using expected contract prices and an exchange rate of $1.00 (US) for $1.30 (Cdn) and do not reflect any resale of the cancelled deliveries under the contract with TEPCO.

$CCJ is careening lower on this news.

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Considering the fact that TEPCO represents just 5% of CCJs 2017 revenues outlook and the stock down more than 10%, I’d say the sell off is a bit overdone. This is likely a good entry point into the uranium sector.

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THE YOLO WOLF DID NOTHING WRONG

I’ve read a lot of articles about the now infamous “Yolo Wolf” losing his entire $2.5m inheritance in the stock market — topped off by getting vanquished, live, for all the world to see in an after hours trading session by betting against $AAPL — donning a fucking blazer and wolf mask.

Apparently, this wasn’t a spontaneous thing, as he was interviewed by several different people ahead of the momentous event. Immediately following this brutish defeat, people said the whole thing was a hoax. Most simply surmised it was fake because who in the world would do such a thing — betting it all in put contracts into an earnings announcement, after already losing 70% of an inheritance?

Yolo Wolf does.

For the sake of this arguement, let’s assume it was real and the man in the wolf mask, awaiting golden showers and champagne toasts, was truly yoloing it because the planets aligned that way for him and this was his shot.

THE YOLO WOLF DID NOTHING WRONG.

You pussies always talk about being hardcore, going for the kill, but rarely, if ever, actually do it. Yolo Wolf was already dead before the trade happened. With just $250k left in the bank, barely enough for a nice car, some clothes and a night out on the town without a watch, he literally had nothing to lose — except $250k of course.

In order to make back the $2.25m that he had lost in retarded trading, he’d have to become a vampire and toil away in front of a hot monitor for the next hundred years or so.

Yolo Wolf was fighting for Sparta, even though he’s a fucking leaf.

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He grabbed life by the balls and squeezed as hard as he could and ended up with a handful of mashed testicles.

A great man once said ‘no balls, no babies.’ While Yolo Wolf might not be able to have babies anymore, being that his dick got cut off in the after hours session and all, he still went for the glory, the ephremeral dream cast out by many Yolo Wolves throughout history, as old as time itself. Both the downtrodden caitiff and the canaille — imbibed with the ambrosia of an eager Third Estate, have been inside of that wolf mask innumerable times. For the love of glory, Winston Churchill and Franklin Delano Roosevelt once wore it.

It’s worth noting, however, Hitler wore it too.

Even though this coxcomb resides in loyalist territory belonging to the crown, dare I say, that very same wolf mask, the one bore by both Hitler and Churchill, was worn by our very own George Washington long ago too — during his dream to remove our nation from the clutches of British colonialism. The actions of this magnanimous man then paved the way for the greatest nation to ever grace the planet — the zenith of civilization — becoming home to innovators and inventors who would one day create the most profitable and successful company the world had even known — which sadly and profoundly laid waste to our dear friend Yolo Wolf today. Almost everything comes full circle; it’s the way of life.

Wolf eats wolf.

Godspeed.

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Deutsche Bank Bullish on U.S. Equities, Sees V Shaped Recovery in Earnings

Binky from Deutsch Bank makes the case for higher U.S. stocks, based on the premise of a revitalized corporate earnings scene. He points out that earnings are beating by an average of 3.5% — heading into estimates that were flat. In other words, earnings are at record highs and they’re expected to trend higher — taking stocks with it.

The recent rally in stocks is ‘typical of a close election’, as well as the current lull.

Markets aren’t pricing in stimulus. As such, get long now else miss out.

I’ll take zinc. I got a new zinc trade that I’ll unveil tomorrow.

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Shares of $AAPL Rise on Better Than Expected iPhone Sales; Man in Wolf Mask Livestreams Himself Losing Fortune

$AAPL is no longer an interesting company. Under the direction of Tim Cook, the company is geared to avoid risk and has fallen behind Samsung in nearly every facet of innovation. This is more of a finance company now, compiling cash at a record pace and keenly focused on creating free cash flow.

For the quarter, Apple beat on both the top and bottom lines. They issued downside guidance; but no one really gives a shit about that.

Reports Q1 (Dec) earnings of $3.36 per share, $0.14 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $3.22; revenues rose 3.3% year/year to $78.35 bln vs the $77.26 bln Capital IQ Consensus. Gross margin 38.5%, in-line with estimates vs. 40.5% last year.

iPhones 78.3 mln vs 77.3 mln ests and 74.8 mln last year.

iPads 13.1 mln vs 14.7 mln ests and 16.1 mln last year Macs 5.4 mln vs 5.2 mln ests versus 5.3 mln last year.

Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $51.5-53.5 bln vs. $54.05 bln Capital IQ Consensus; gross margin between 38-39% vs 38.7% ests and 39.4% last year.; operating expenses between $6.5 billion and $6.6 billion; other income/(expense) of $400 million; tax rate of 26 percent

All people care about are iPhone sales and they crushed it.

Co reported Q1 iPhones of 78.3 mln vs 77.3 mln ests versus 74.8 mln last year.
Co reported Q1 iPads of 13.1 mln vs 14.7 mln ests versus 16.1 mln last year.
Co reported Q1 Macs of 5.4 mln vs 5.2 mln ests versus 5.3 mln last year.

And then there’s this guy, livestream shorting $AAPL with his entire net worth wearing a fucking wolf mask. LOL

Here’s some background on the aforementioned man wearing the wolf mask.

And, he did an interview with Chicago Sean discussing this stupid trade in detail.

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STOCKS RALLY INTO THE BELL AND CLOSE GREEN; DOW BE DAMNED

My portfolio was up nearly 2% today — buoyed by a very strong zinc market. For 2017, I am all about zinc and uranium. Zinc closed higher by 2.8% and after the market closed, $X guided way up, in ridiculous fashion.

U.S. Steel sees FY17 $3.08 vs $1.67 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

The more demand for steel, the greater demand for zinc. Unlike steel, there isn’t a great oversupply of zinc. Hence, I expect both $TECK and $HBM to do quite well this year, especially with Trump’s fiscal stimulus plans looming.

Both the NASDAQ and the S&P closed higher, with the Dow being the only standout. Breadth was upwards of 61% and most people had a good day. I view today’s tape as a proper consolidation day and expect a resumption of the market rally tomorrow morning.

This being the last trading day of January, I am pleased to announce returns of 6%. Inside Exodus, my GARP portfolio was higher by nearly 5% — led by a 43% return in $UEC.

Happy 80th birthday to the legendary Phillip Glass, my favorite contemporary composer.

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