Full disclosure, I am long gold and gold miners and believe both will do fine, especially when revealed the Fed will never, ever, ever raise interest rates.
It’s amusing to see gold miners off by 2.5%, in a very beat me about the face and chin sort of way, at the onset of what has been the single worst month to be long the yellow metal.
Observe the seasonality stats, courtesy of Exodus.
For the past month, the sector has been under fire — off by more than 6.5%. The sell off began when rumors of an imminent Fed hike started to circulate and the sector has been dead money since then. As the technicals devolve, more bears pile into the trade — making it a scary hold for hot money seekers.
But if you took a step back pal (extra Les Grossman), and looked at the technicals of the industry, you might think twice about following all of the other assholes out of the sector and into overbought denizens of depravity, such as semis and oil.
Note that the chart above represents Exodus‘ algorithmic scores for all stocks in the gold industry, encompassing both technicals and fundamentals. In other words, whenever it gets this low, the sector bounces hard off the lows.
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Dot Plot says 2 hikes in 2017 with 1 left for this year after the election. But what is a rate hike? .25 BPS? I mean really? Nothing till after the election for sure. And just a mere 2 in the entire 2017? Pretty much no hikes for the foreseeable future.
Seems no big event to drive gold right now. I sm down 10% of so off highs.