iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
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BofA/Merrill: The U.S. Economy Will Take Off Under Trump

Well, you don’t hear stuff like this coming out of Clinton country, aka Wall Street, these days. Funny thing about Wall Street, it’s very similar to the unions, where all of the workers, or many of them are pro republican, but the leaders are mostly democrat shills. On Wall Street, they’re not so much democrat shills, as they are establishment whores.

David Woo, Head of Global Rates and Currencies, said in an interview today a potential Trumo presidency would equate to a massive boom in the dollar and the overall economy as a whole.

The U.S. economy would take off in a big way” if Trump were elected and Republicans control both legislative houses next year, said Woo, thanks to the fiscal stimulus that Trump would enact. Trump has pledged to spend at least twice as much as the Democratic nominee on infrastructure and also enact a massive tax cut, two measures that would entail a renewed issuance of Treasuries.

Against this backdrop, the greenback would strengthen and U.S. Treasury yields would rise, a view shared by Woo and other fixed income veterans as well.

Without question, lower taxes and a stronger border will help both wages and investment. However, I am far less sanguine abount the immediate after shocks of a Trump win. There is this pervasive belief that Trump is simply talking shit and doesn’t mean to build walls or fuck with China and NAFTA. Well, what if he’s not just talking shit? What if he truly intends to start trade wars, in order to get better deals?

Long term, a Trump win would be fantastic for markets. However, in the short term, I am fairly certain markets will freak the fuck out over the specter of tighter Fed policy and the end to market rigging.

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2 comments

  1. rigged game

    “Trump has pledged to spend at least twice as much as the Democratic nominee on infrastructure and also enact a massive tax cut”. And he has also promised to increase defense spending. And Veteran’s benefits.

    $4 TRILLION annual deficits as far as the eye can see, taking the DEBT to $35 TRILLION in four years.

    But I personally don’t give a shit about the debt, since the USA owns a printing press.

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  2. vandamme

    Lol if you think even a gop Senate will let him spend that much.

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