Bob Parker from Credit Suisse is easily my favorite market strategist. I do not pretend to know more than him and will not debate the merits of his argument. If he thinks fears of a Chinese hard landing have dissipated, I’m inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt and surmise that the market is very soon going to adopt Bob’s opinion and run higher.
Truth be told, I’m inclined to think that nonetheless, as I am 200% long SPY.
Judging by European indices and U.S. futures, it appears the party has only just started.
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2+2 = 5
So China’s economy has supposedly landed softly? Well, even if we don’t believe them, if we own stocks, why look a gift horse in the mouth? Maybe the inaccurate view was that they ever were in for a hard landing, for all we know.
BTW, here is an article here about the presidential candidate whose policy plans are the most similar to those of Communism. Who is that? Donald Trump.
Donald Trump Says He’ll Stop Apple From Making iPhones in China
http://fortune.com/2016/01/18/donald-trump-says-hell-make-apple-stop-making-iphones-in-china/
Of course, none of the Republican or Democratic candidates are actually Communist. Despite the inaccurate ideas expressed on some TV programs and Internet sites, there are not just 2 choices: laissez-faire capitalism vs. Communism. There are many choices in between those 2 possibilities, the Scandinavian countries being examples of in-between possibilities.
People just want to get immigration under control. It has nothing to do with economics or politics for that matter.
the price is right. lessons in greed coming today.
Market fell so fast in 2 weeks – is there any chance we have a rally of more than 10 minutes?
Yes.
So we should disregard your doom and gloom about European banks and exploding bankruptcies among energy companies etc from yesterday? You flip back and forth like pancake on a hot griddle. Think politics is your true calling.
I’m afraid I have to agree with trader confessions about your too sudden turnaround.
And if you are going to provide us with your position of being long 200% SPY, please do so when you purchase it, like in this case what must have been Friday. Don’t provide it the morning that the Spooz are up 1.5% Not a good look, at all. I do enjoy your blog but I may have to look at it as more entertainment that a source for clear, reasoned, professional thinking.
From the last week or so mr. Le Fly has been building this position, he even gave his basis last week. IMHO he provides the most enjoyable financial read found anywhere.
Let me put it another way… When you decide to short this rally, please state it before the preopening SPY is trading down 1.5%. That will give you more credibility.
You should probably do some reading of the Fly’s work before you go about running your mouth. Go read his posts from the past week and a half or so in which he details his building of a 200% long position in SPY…
Your not going to make it. Go give a little kiss to an oncoming train.
“Well when events change, I change my mind. What do you do?”
Paul Samuelson, who died in 2009 and was the first American to win the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.
What event changed?
The “events” in China changed. Actually China is such a closed up place that we don’t know what the real events are. So we have to go by the possibly imaginary events described by the Chinese, such as the decent GDP figures.
So would folks like Fly to be like GW Bush?
The great Stephen Colbert said about GW Bush at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in 2006:
“He believes the same thing Wednesday that he believed on Monday, no matter what happened Tuesday. Events can change; this man’s beliefs never will.”
Does anyone want to make a Netflix prediction for tonight’s earnings??
Only 15 million empty apartments… soft landing?
Like the last 25 years in Japan perhaps
Arsehat 2016 – Contender
5% growth? Look at steel volume and price. Services are not going to replace the 50% of GDP focussed on investment.
Who cares anyway when the SP500 PE needs to contract 30%?
It is a sideshow.