This Tin-Pot South American Market is Crushing it

I sold out of a small position of mine last week in GGAL. The stock ran straight up like a bat out of hell. As a matter of fact, the entire Merval, Argentina’s main index, is up 46% for the year and up 31% over the past month alone.

Ask me why?

Zero fucks.

All I know is some asshole is going to replace another asshole as Presidente. As such, people can’t get enough of this Merval.

Here are Argentinian stocks listed here, with their fanatical one month returns, courtesy of Exodus.

If stocks aren’t your thing, being a dumbass advisor who solely depends on ETFs for business, have a look at ARGT. Here is how its stacked up v the Merval this past month.

Do we chase here?

The fuck do I know? Quit trying to kill the middle man. All I know is, while we’re over here getting our fingers cut off with these bastard stocks, fuckers in Argentina are getting rich, drinking cervezas, and having lots of siestas.

He admitted to several important things. For one, his average cost is $186. Also, he owns upwards of 21 million shares, making VRX his largest position in the “mid-teens” as far as positions size goes.

And, lastly, he said the stock has 89% short term upside and should be worth $448 within 3 years.

Here are some other notes from the call, via Briefing.

Does not believe business model is broken; Notes there are some big holders still in the name; thinks passage of time will lead to a revaluation of the co.
Does not see Philador as being materially relevant.
Does not believe a share buyback is the co’s first choice for use of cash at the moment.
Ackman has no plans to ask for a seat on the Board.
Notes Novartis saw similar issues however the stock was never attacked because people had more confidence in the co’s business model as it has been around longer; believes the perception is unfair to VRX.
From what it has heard, believes there could be some overstatement of Philadors numbers; does not believe VRX had sufficient control over Philador.

To me, this is pretty unbelievable stuff, putting himself out there like this. It’s reminiscent of his absurd JCP plan, or his HLF vendetta. Ackman does things big and very public. If this turns south on him, he’s gonna be wiping egg off his face for a very long time.

VRX is near the lows of the day, down 13%. Citron has been rubbing salt into Ackman’s wounds, tweeting VRX has a better chance of seeing zero than HLF ever will. Ouch!

It was so bad, it was good.

He must be smoking some goood ganja, the same shit the Tepper for SUNE rumor mongers were smoking, if he thinks this will ever happen.

“I consider [Chinese monetary policy] much, much too tight still. And they play too many games with their economy,” he said. “If there was going to be paradigm, it would be China really easing; not one quarter, but they could lower a couple hundred basis points.

As you know, he shot down the SUNE rumors and laughed at the idea he’d ever buy something as stupid as SUNE. Also, he was cautious on his outlook for stocks, with little to no swagger.

Fact: stocks are up 8% since the last time he cast shade on the market. Oh, and he’s also still worth many, many billions of dollars.

Is it too little too late, or can the caped crusaders at Valeant turn this around (POW, ZAP, ZAM!) and get their stock price higher again?

“The newest allegations about activities at Philidor raise additional questions about the company’s business practices,” Michael Pearson, Valeant’s chief executive officer, said in the statement. “We have lost confidence in Philidor’s ability to continue to operate in a manner that is acceptable to Valeant and the patients and doctors we serve.”

Clearly, if VRX is running a scam, they’re pretty shitty at it. This all comes ahead of Bill Ackman’s sales pitch to Wall Street this morniing, regarding his awesome and amazing reasons to be long such a wonderful company.

Last go around for the Peanut Gallery was several years ago, an open blogging forum that iBC hosted for scores of vagrants and intellects alike. For me, it was a grande failure because the culture of iBankCoin was diluted by know-nothing fucktards, mostly interested in self promotion. After posting my request for formal Twitter resumes, I’ve received dozens of emails from people interested in voicing their opinions.

This is good news from a finance blogging viewpoint, as some believe Twitter has all but eliminated the need for blogs. The truth is, if you’re only on Twitter, you’re a nomad without a home. iBC can offer a homebase for you, one that is without agenda, aside from the completion of the Orbital Space Cannon (OSC), designed wholly for offensive purposes only. To my point, I offer zero promises or monetary reward for joining our ranks. Ad dollars do not support the site and I’d be a ridiculous person to offer money to people who’ve yet to prove themselves valuable to our organization.

Where we’re going with this?

Sky is the limit. iBankCoin has a powerful voice in finance, with over 65 million page views since inception. If you differentiate yourself from the pack, I will assuredly invite you to become a “tabbed blogger.” With it, eventually, may or may not lead to monetary gain. I’ve netted millions in profits from the site, since inception, self funded, totally bootstrapped, and without the hawk eyes of vulture capitalists peering over my shoulder.

That being said, if you’re interested in joining our platform and offering content, whenever it suits you, email me at [email protected].

I am likely to select just 5 people to beta test the program, then expand from there. Ideally, you will bring something to the table, in the form of a Twitter or StockTwits following. If not, I’d like proof that you actually know english.

Regards,

Le Fly

This market has a certain finality to it. You can sense the storm brewing, the indescribable calamity to come. Earnings short fall are swiftly met with decapitation. Entire sectors are dropped into large vats of grease, then lit aflame. The small piker investor is tossed out into the winter winds, without clothes or weapon, then told to hunt.

News flash for all of you: if you aren’t investing in your business, staying informed by reading the missives of persons of superior intellect, you’re already behind the curve. I implore you, for the sake of your children and your children’s children, join the league of top hatted gentlemen inside the grande halls of Exodus and get an edge.

Stocks careened lower, despite what the indices said. I shed all of the gains made yesterday and I am now expecting the very worst to close out the week. The respite was had, and enjoyed. I expect chop from here until January 1st. After the New Year, I expect the market to drop 10% in January, fucking every single person who bought long into what they thought would be “The January Effect.”

X-mas has been canceled.

Chanukah has been canceled.

Fucking Kwanza never happened.

Enjoy the rest of your miserable days.

Thank you for your interest in the new ibc peanut gallery. Your applications will be thoroughly examined by the board of directors and we will conduct thorough backround checks, even visit you while you sleep to rifle through your personal belongings to see if you’re a good match.

I see the market is down just a little bit. But, once again, there is an indescribable evil in this tape, one that I haven’t seen in some time. Naturally, I had foreseen such an event and raised some cash, made COST my largest holding. But even I can’t escape the horrors of this grinder. With positions in SHAK, TWTR and XON, I am not enjoying today’s tape.

A lot of people compare today to 1998. That’s great. The only problem with 1998, for those who traded it, is that it sucked. I lost my first stockbroker job in ’98, being an early investor in internet stocks. No one liked internet stocks back then and I got hammered into pieces. I wrote about my life story in three parts, here.

The Fed is most likely interested in bankrupting some bad actors with their rate hikes. I see no other reason why they’d be so foolish as to tighten now, during the most fucked up part of this little recovery we find ourselves in. Tread carefully and remember that 1998 was not as cool as the charts said they were. It was 1999 that kicked ass, made short sellers regret the day their idiot Fathers took Mom to the movies.

We’e bringing the Peanut Gallery back. For those unfamiliar, it was a blogging platform on iBC that had dozens of independent writers contributing and fucking up the site. This time around, you’re gonna need my approval to be accepted into this league of gentlemen.

If interested in writing for us, email me at Flybroker@gmail.
Don’t forget to tell me your twitter handle, for we will not accept applicants who do not have a fucking twitter handle, God damn it.

In light of the potential PFE for AGN deal, I like pharmaceuticals stocks. I do not, however, like phase 1 biotech gambles. My top pick here is JAZZ, a company that will earn $10 this year and is treated like the fat lady at the end of the bar.

Don’t sleep on JAZZ (double entendre!). They specialize in narcolepsy treatment.

Yesterday’s Fed statement personified fuckery. I am no longer going to name call them as “stupid” or “morons”, for that gives them an easy way out of the nonsensical bullshit they perpetuate. The people at the Fed are the brightest and deliberate in their actions. It’s obvious to me they are trying to do something, just like Greenspan was trying to do something via all of them rate hikes in 2006-2007.

We may need to beware of the Fed.

JP Morgan on Fed statement:

What was to be a somewhat sleepy, noncommittal FOMC statement turned out to be a bit more interesting and, on balance, more hawkish. If nothing else, it reminded markets that there still is a risk of a Fed that starts its rate hiking in December….While remaining noncommittal (as it must), the Fed has introduced language to more strongly emphasize its long-held view that 1) it is data dependent and 2) every meeting is live for a potential rate hike (in this case: December). Not surprisingly, markets are taking notice.

Oil and gold are getting poleaxed this morning, off by 1.5%. The market is starting to worry about a December rate hike, because, umm, we need it so badly.

Global luxury goods sales will register its worst year since Lehman, growing less than 3%. The big hurt is coming from China, who represents more than 30% of global luxury goods sales. It’s obvious to everyone that the economies of the world are struggling. As to why the Fed believes this tepid economy deserves tightening, I have no fucking idea.

Once rates go up, weak companies will bankrupt amidst tighter credit. Maybe that’s what the Fed is trying to do: wash away the weak so that the strong might flourish.

Either way, prepare for some volatility and extreme fuckery.