Enough is enough already. I can’t take it anymore, the fakery, pretending to not see what’s in front of my face. For the sake of clarity, I demand that all of the liars step forth and explain to me how the US economy is growing at 5%, while TLT is trading north of $131.
I demand to know how interest rates are at record lows, across the US and Europe, at a time when, apparently, stocks are doing great.
On paper, there is nothing that should be bought whence inside of the deflationary vortex. Perhaps you can buy toilet paper stocks and companies that provide meat to the savage populous, but this isn’t the time to declare “bull market” for all of those home gamers.
This market that you see here, my friends, is what you call “transient.” It cannot and will not last.
The liars and the thieves may now step forward to receive penance.
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FIG
Damn he’s fast.
1) Limited supply from fed buying. 2) Increased demand from Baby Boomers allocating bigger % of their portfolio to bonds. 3) Bonds of all other 1st world countries going into the deflationary shitstorm abyss & ours are playing yield catchup. (why buy france and get 60bps when you could get more in USA?)
1. Fed isn’t buying anymore
2.Baby Boomers aren’t allocating shit, asset managers are.
3. meh
Next!
Doesn’t matter if FED is still buying… they bought and they will hold. 2) Don’t be pedantic about who’s allocating.
Dislocations Abound!
good chunk of that Gdp 5% was old/previous quarter/old Healthcare. Stuffed. In
don’t overthink things Fly. You don’t get extra money in your account for being able to write a coherent explanation for all this.
That’s the whole point of the blog, you idiot, to overthink things.
You need to add some sort of a comment recommendation system. I don’t want to have to comment to tell you this was hilarious.
We once tried that, but it failed because of my enemies insistence to vote down all of my comments.
You? Have enemies? Noooo. 🙂
I have thousands of them, some have even entered the inner confines of the iBC Capstone.
That seems like it would be an easy problem to fix.
hahahahahahahahah
What’s the worry? Its all good, to the moon!
^^
Still alive?! Awesome. I wasn’t getting the Chicago updates as much.
You should come into 12631, I am there all day.
People seem to be buying gold because they see all this, and can’t think of a less expensive risk-off alternative. The problem is that this has to be deflation. Fed out. Eurozone never healed. China losing steam. USA is uneven regardless of the most recent GDP print. But those who see it as risk off instead of deflation are just looking for hiding spots that aren’t super expensive bonds or dollars. You can’t hide from deflation you numbskulls! Certainly not in gold.
Hey look deflation. Better buy gold.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardDocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm At times when everyone is discussing deflation, we should all remember what the great Bernak once said about deflation in America.
The second bulwark against deflation in the United States, and the one that will be the focus of my remarks today, is the Federal Reserve System itself. The Congress has given the Fed the responsibility of preserving price stability (among other objectives), which most definitely implies avoiding deflation as well as inflation. I am confident that the Fed would take whatever means necessary to prevent significant deflation in the United States and, moreover, that the U.S. central bank, in cooperation with other parts of the government as needed, has sufficient policy instruments to ensure that any deflation that might occur would be both mild and brief.
Who did that 100 year bond years ago? Disney? Time for a new batch….THE GOLDEN AGE!
As is customary. Like putting on the condom
The top is… 2090. I call a top. Top
CONDOM NO BREAKY. TOP NO BREAKY. GET IT??
You’re back.
[ [.. .. .. you know the drill .. .. ..] ]
Today’s action got me in the door!
Wrong again. 2100s coming up.
*note, not replying to you, as per your third sentence it would make me a liar, and while a card-carrying raconteur, and riposter I am, a liar I most certainly am not. Replying to the inevitable others*
–> would you rather loan to zee germans only country in EU thats not comically fucked at 0 or US at 200 bps
–> EU is in actual deflationary vortex. They have to depreciate since they cant print, only sell bonds, and they need to depreciate Euro if they want foreign investors to buy those bonds
–> US rates are going lower
–> this amplifies chase for yield, aka the past two years
–> many “areas” have good dividend yield or earnings yield, esp if the “bullshit models” price in lower rates eg lower costs of capital. LIKE SRC BABY WOO (extra ric flair)
–> if this is deflation, sure has fooled me (literally, I am fooled about it). Still think a run from hard assets gold oil etc is cause not change in demand
–> so many complexities, what a great and terrifying position to be in
The Leftist machine is notoriously adept at making bullshit sparkle. They own the journalists, you know.
There was the Gilded Age, the Progressive Era, and now we have this fetid state of affairs where the club members amassed an unprecedented amount of wealth in the shadows while the vast majority of America stagnated or withered.
So true. The “dementia” evening news. The channel is irrelevant. Fluff pieces and outright propaganda. Why the airplane/airport stories every night? You could assume humans just figured out how to fucking fly. The Age of the Old.
Danny
Either TLT drops $15 this year, or the market falls 1,500 points. This relationship must fracture in 2015.
cant decide if I prefer former or the latter…I know market doesnt really operate on “whys” but am wondering what would “cause” the relationship to break (knowing full well all things break eventually)
anyway… I…well it may be another year of correlation between the two is what I am bracing for.
Agree. Bullard can only whisper sweet nothings to the market so long before bluff is called. Draghi is about to learn the same lesson. Meanwhile, Ben smoking a fattie laughing at all of us.
Must be cush for sure…just learned over the weekend that cush is 10 times as potent as the weed available in my college days. If it’s true, holy shit. I mean, how high do you have to get?
Kush lol, not cush. And if you were a 22 year old unemployed college grad, how high would you want to be all day?
My problem is knowing what to believe.
At some point you have to believe something. I believe in job growth in
the U.S.A. Every young person I know
with a degree has a job. This should
mean good things .Long U.S.A.
Every young person you know with a degree has a job? What is your sample size? Two Computer Science guys from Stanford???
Health and wholesale and low level management
Aka underemployed?? Do these young people with degrees earn enough to afford to purchase a house?
My cousin just graduated from UCLA. Engineering. About 20% of his graduating class of engineers still doesn’t have jobs.
A family member works in career services for top DC school. Underemployment, lower salary consulting jobs then 07 and higher % of unemployment by major then 2013.
I just think the argument of “the youth have jobs and will boost us” is irrational. Recent college grads are attempting to pay off student loans and CC debt. Not consumption.
Did you say Engineer just graduated.No
worries, will find work soon. Also cannot
buy a brownstone in N.Y but most anything in Indiana.
I’m an engineer in my 20s as are most of my friends and a couple family members. All including those who graduated in 2013 have jobs and found one within 2 months of graduation. This definitely isn’t 2010-2011 anymore. I also train machinists to operate CNC controlled machines for a living, and everywhere I go the biggest capacity constraint is skilled workers, either a lack of engineers or operators. The work is there, just the will to roll up your sleeves and work hard to achieve something isn’t. A few of those engineers I mentioned were C level students who were laid off from less stable work in 08-09 and decided to something about it rather than sit on their ass, get high, and complain about how screwed up the world is.
Thankyou
Demand is being propped up as much as earnings are, I believe
Inventory/Subprime sales/Debt float production/etc games
Employment will -become- less stable again when the quicksand
you know
Labor participation rate & gov assistance are masking a lot of the picture
Gotta be a reason Europe shits the bed every three years – 2009, 2012, 2015. The LTRO’s expire every the years. Maybe their banks are running low on cash cause they had to pay back their LTRO. The market knows they can be fucked with until 1/22. Thus the rush for treasuries which could be used to borrow overnight from Feds
Anybody who buys bonds here – a monetary agency like the Fed or Draghi’s shitbox, a pension fund, or a trader or investor – is a fuckin MAROON.
They won’t collect shit in interest and probably will not collect principal if the bond defaults. And if interest rates rise, they get killed on bond valuation.
LOL tell us how you really feel
(secret, rates aren’t going up)
Buying TLT here is like trying to short a $2 stock to zero and cover before trading is halted. It’s time for any logical person to unwind his bond positions.
And this logical person would unwind his bond positions into?
TBT?
Stocks granny.
Spanking is legal again!
http://blog.sfgate.com/sfmoms/2015/01/06/dad-invites-police-officer-to-watch-him-spank-his-12-year-old-daughter/
Wage growth is zilch, people have to put together a couple of part time jobs, if they can, and record numbers are dropping out of the work force all together and have stopped looking.
There you go.
I start drawing my SS in 2015 and I couldn’t be happier about it.
Strange. I’d need two hands to count the number of people in my social circle who have received at least two raises in the last year. a COLA raise and a separate merit raise/promotion. We’re the same group that complained about a lack of (any) raises from 2008-2013. Things are definitely different at least in my end of the pool.
let me know where you work… i’d like to sign up!
GIC’s and high interest savings accounts work against deflation. Bonds too if you hold them to maturity.
You all are grossly pessimistic. The sun rises and the world is in crisis. Meanwhile, capital gets redeployed to its best use via the market
In a word MANIPULATION
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le73sWDlhz4
No joke, or market movers immune to the usual factors, f-ing Financial Thor and other Viking gods stomping around the market ocean. My raft is getting beat into a postage stamp.
a fancy gas guzzler and driving around looking for burgers, chics and long drives is clearly the next option. I think I should buy more HABT …..
What is there to understand? You mention all the necessary information to explain the behaviour. US economy has been growing pretty well and companies have been able to grow earnings as well, hence the stock market has been going up. A little too much? Perhaps.
Deflationary scares in Europe, the strong dollar and the slow realization the perhaps equities are a little overbought are driving bond prices up as well. Things will settle down… eventually.
What’s happening? Not much other than the market telling the Fed, don’t dare raise interest rates this year.
The Fed will NEVER raise rates.
+1
Fly
Why not raise them a 1/4 or 1/2 a point if for nothing else to give themselves room to maneuver and drop when the next crisis hits?
What the fuck?
Have you seen commodities and treasuries?
Nice
Stay classy w the F bomb. I said a 1/4 point not 5%… Geez
The S&P 500 is flat over the past past 6 months and volatility has risen 50%. Typically such conditions tend to be bullish for safe havens such as treasury bonds
Oh, GOOD NEWS EVERYONE, our overlords are fixing to RAISE the gas tax, now that we’ve gotten accustomed to cheap gasoline.
aha … now the engineered manufactured decline in oil makes sense .. they wanted to pass a gas tax with no resistance from the proletariat .. as soon as it’s law, oil shall rise
cmon bruh it was the Saudis “engineering” not US, they are the honey badger in the oil space
Sen Corker is leading the charge on gas tax.
Should have seen that coming! I was fixated on the screw Putin angle missed the obvious
The overlords are making everyone in America sick
This galaxy is 32 BILLION LIGHT YEARS from earth. Bonds? What Bonds!!
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/space-odyssey/ss-BBhAIlK?ocid=UP97DHP&fullscreen=true#image=6
As long as corporations can keep strip-mining middle class wealth and borrowers keep borrowing this game will continue. Maybe it stopped last month, maybe it goes on until the last short is insolvent. I can’t know right now.
.
… so I’m contemplating a trading bias for tomorrow … let’s see … hmmm …
ROCKS … PAPER … SCISSORS …
.
Seems to me the big question of the new year is……..
How much longer before “the deflation”
There is no inflation. Hence, interest rates are -0-. But that’s okay, if you have a lot of cash you can put it in the bank and not lose value. Time was, money in the bank lost value over time to inflation. But not now. You don’t have to put your money to work, just keep it in a safe account. Lots of huge accounts of dead money for companies and rich fuckers. Banks dont have to offer good rates. Deflationary environment.