THERE’S ALWAYS A BAD REASON TO PANIC

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way–in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

 

-Master of the English language, Charles Dickens

There isn’t anyone who has ever written a passage as succinct and haunting as the opening paragraph in A Tale of Two Cities, by Dickens. The first time I read those words, I was hooked. In many ways, it describes the plight of mankind, at least since the invention of fire and the wheel.  There will always be injustices thrusted upon the lower wrung of society and there will always be excesses enjoyed by those in a position to enjoy them. Somewhere in the middle we fight for position, trying to outmanoeuvre one another for the spoils of capitalism. To that end, many of us (speaking in general terms here, nothing personal you insolent knave) cheat and steal to further our position, regular mountebanks living in the shadows of treachery.

Here is my point: how is it that we were stricken by panic, sheer unadulterated panic, when rates were going higher? Now that they’re going lower, these same blackguards are trying to instill fear into the hearts of all of you in the middle, who rarely refuse an opportunity to step on each other’s faces in order to get a leg up on the competition. This is intellectually insulting and you should try to ignore what the hucksters in the bond markets are doing, for they are always led astray–easily tricked like red meat tossed at a dog…by a burglar.

I was going to post some research that I’ve been doing, pertaining to cash rich companies that might be worth your while in this era of obscene value we find ourselves in. But then it dawned on me,  none of you are interested in “uncovering” long term value. This ludicrous wave of value bargain shopping is ephemeral and will not last though the summer.

While I’ve been taking my hits with equanimity, there is nothing that I want more than to throw my African spears through the chest cavities of the parasitic fainéants who fritter away in the comments section of this great house. If you are intent on offering nothing to the conversation, as we try to wade through, mind you, this Warren Buffet market, then you and I have very little to discuss.

The bannings shall continue until morale improves.

I invite you to continue reading, bearing witness to what can only be described as Annus Mirabillis, a year in which I intend to perform great feats of magic and introduce the pangs of misery to my enemies, the very same misery that I’ve been burdened with for the past 8 weeks, only a lot stronger. Remember, it’s not paranoia if people are truly out to get you. After seeing how many catamites decided to appear– in the comments– when I was at my lowest point in over a decade, there can no longer be a discussion of whether or not I exaggerate the threat.

S&P futures are down 2, after reports that a single Russian soldier was spotted inside of Ukraine with a loaded pistol.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvclxOKoAug

Today is the big day for degenerates across the country: Derby day. Alcoholics everywhere unite on this day, to give thanks to gambling and fast running animals with midgets mounted on top.

I am sure you will partake in a few mint juleps, dress up like the Kentucky Fried Chicken guy, and have yourself a regular grande time. I’m not passing judgement, believe you me. The new Fly is all about community, mutual understanding, and against unsolicited acts of extreme violence. There was a time when I’d opt for “ultra-violence”, ban everyone in the comments section for looking at me sideways, and prohibit the dissemination of financial advice, of any sort, by the “reading class.” But all of that has changed now, as I am one of you–a regular Joe Shmo, losing in the market, working paycheck to paycheck to finance a Friday night malted liquor or two.

Sit back and enjoy the ponies. Although you haven’t earned the right to leisure, take it nonetheless.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YTghYfVbiQ

There are plenty of mentally challenged folk here, who regularly attempt to detract from the conversation, all to do with a lot of nothing. Hyper-analyzers I like to call them, regular ner’erdowells, people of a lower cloth. It’s a good thing humans die so soon, for they are an evil species. Seventy five years is more than enough for the Original Don’s of the world, men of mice who suck the oxygen right out of a party.

We do not have the patience to wait around while these sordid individuals evolve into a more tolerable form of species. Therefore, back by popular demand, I’ve begun a campaign to purge this site of its miscreants. All of the people who scream from their housing tenement rooftops, throwing excrement at the good tax payers down below: they shall be liquidated and fed to our spam bots to give life to a better form of troll, reincarnate.

I do this, not to shield myself from barbaric attacks upon my person, but for the people.

Into the bell, I am 75% long the stocks mentioned before, equal weighting, old man stocking it into the weekend to come.

Have a pleasant weekend and enjoy the derby.

Today’s jobs numbers demands action. More than that, TLT is top heavy and I am sensing we might drift higher, specifically in stocks that have PEs and are valued relatively inexpensive. I am taking a two prong approach to the market here.

1. I am investing in a wide swath of low FPE, low p/s names that are under accumulation.

2. I am investing in several high growth names that are either EPS positive and exhibiting signs of bottom line growth and/or buying a few tech names that have low p/s ratios.

I am avoiding, like the plague, tech stocks with p/s ratios above 10, losing money.

I’ve begun buying the following stocks, methodically, and will continue to do so until I am 90% long. I intend on holding this “value basket” until it nets me 5%.

FANG

RKUS

CRTO

DLPH

KMT

HBI

JAZZ

WCC

EL

I see the market reversed lower and Rickard Santelli is on the teevee, fully erect, calling for a fucking crash. I’d much rather buy these stocks on dips, so if the market sells off today, so be it. I’ve given this approach a lot of thought and consider it my best foot forward, considering the sort of bastard tape I have in front of me. I am out of my comfort zone, navigating in unfriendly, foreign, waters.

The country added 288,000 jobs last month and more than 300,000 people left the jobs market because, umm, they couldn’t get jobs. Those people aren’t coming back to the “job pool.” They’ll just “go away” and either suck on the government tit for the remainder of their lives or drive their cars off bridges. No matter which way you slice it, this is a very bullish number for the market.

Try to think of a reason why this market shouldn’t trade higher. Let’s assume that buying high growth money losing ventures was a bad idea; that shouldn’t preclude us from delving back into stocks in an effort to realize our manifest destinies, should it? I mean, isn’t it our god given right to enjoy life in a prosperous way, tapping the old equity markets for coin whenever we feel the urge to splurge?

Clearly, I’ve let fear grab me by the neck and slap the sense out of me.

I must invest today.

If you bought high beta growth this morning, in the hopes of catching a nice 10% rip to the upside, you caught an ax to the face instead. I was sitting in my office, lamenting my position, trying to figure out–FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, how to escape this tragic nightmare I find myself in. I gathered up my courage and crafted a portfolio of stocks that I felt would yield between 3-5% over the next month, then I got cold feet. It’s a good thing because this market is selling off into tomorrow’s jobs numbers.

If the jobs numbers are weak tomorrow, coupled with the fact that the Fed is being led by an old seahag, kiss this market goodbye, for it will drift out to sea, doling out egregious losses along the way.

If you are having a decent year, play the jobs numbers and do it with style. If you’re like me, hard core loser, down 32% for the year, you might want to pick a better spot to gamble.

Breadth stands at 42% and TLT is through the roof, hardly a bullish scenario to behold.

Why is CNBC covering Ford Motor’s new CEO ceremony? I don’t care about that. For those of you who ponder as to why I watch CNBC: I watch it because their breaking news reports move markets. Shut up and quit bellyaching.

YELP is through the roof, something that I thought should happen post earnings. I just couldn’t hold onto it any longer. No one can say that I didn’t give those stocks a shot to bounce. The line in the sand had to be drawn somewhere and I decided to place it at the catastrophic level.

Just thinking about making 40% from here, just to get back to break even, is incredibly daunting. It’s impossible to do with my ETF strategy and not likely to occur with olde man stocks. I can’t take high risk trades because -32% is just about as far as I can go without doing irreversible damage. If I were to take it easy and go a conservative rout, it will take me 3-5 years to make back the losses I just incurred over the past 8 weeks.

What a mess.

I need a gigantic winner. Even if I took on a 20% position and it rose by 50%, that would only make back 1/3rd of my losses. With the S&P up over 29% last year, it would be unprecedented to see similar returns in 2014. This is going to be a hard year, a regular slug fest and I am starting off with a ridiculous handicap.

The only way I get it back is by nailing an extreme bottom. I need to be in a 90% cash position whilst the market flash crashes into the rocks, breaking skulls and collared bones–causing mass hysteria. Like a regular funeral director, I would need to take advantage of this tragedy and act aggressively. But I need to be realistic about my expectations.

This should not happen in May. As a matter of fact, I think we’ll be up in May. Hopefully, I can make a solid 3-5% in May. God willing, I can make another 5% in June, 2% in July, 1% in August, then set up for the classic September- October crash banking 10% in extreme pornographic fashion.

If I did all of that, merrily cruising about my business, catching trends, dodging crashes, I will be down just 9% by November.

What a stupid position to be in. Impossible!