Why is CNBC covering Ford Motor’s new CEO ceremony? I don’t care about that. For those of you who ponder as to why I watch CNBC: I watch it because their breaking news reports move markets. Shut up and quit bellyaching.
YELP is through the roof, something that I thought should happen post earnings. I just couldn’t hold onto it any longer. No one can say that I didn’t give those stocks a shot to bounce. The line in the sand had to be drawn somewhere and I decided to place it at the catastrophic level.
Just thinking about making 40% from here, just to get back to break even, is incredibly daunting. It’s impossible to do with my ETF strategy and not likely to occur with olde man stocks. I can’t take high risk trades because -32% is just about as far as I can go without doing irreversible damage. If I were to take it easy and go a conservative rout, it will take me 3-5 years to make back the losses I just incurred over the past 8 weeks.
What a mess.
I need a gigantic winner. Even if I took on a 20% position and it rose by 50%, that would only make back 1/3rd of my losses. With the S&P up over 29% last year, it would be unprecedented to see similar returns in 2014. This is going to be a hard year, a regular slug fest and I am starting off with a ridiculous handicap.
The only way I get it back is by nailing an extreme bottom. I need to be in a 90% cash position whilst the market flash crashes into the rocks, breaking skulls and collared bones–causing mass hysteria. Like a regular funeral director, I would need to take advantage of this tragedy and act aggressively. But I need to be realistic about my expectations.
This should not happen in May. As a matter of fact, I think we’ll be up in May. Hopefully, I can make a solid 3-5% in May. God willing, I can make another 5% in June, 2% in July, 1% in August, then set up for the classic September- October crash banking 10% in extreme pornographic fashion.
If I did all of that, merrily cruising about my business, catching trends, dodging crashes, I will be down just 9% by November.
What a stupid position to be in. Impossible!
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Difficult, yes, but not Impossible
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnZyIHgM1xY
I will start to worry about you when you trade in the Mercedes for a Honda.
First time post, Love the honesty in this article. No doubt a scenario faced by many retail traders at some point of their trading lives – what to do, go out all aggressive and try and regain over a short period or “start again” and take several years.
Respect for showing us your lows as well as your highs.
“Like a regular funeral director…”
Anybody remember one of my favorite WWE wrestler’s, ‘The Undertaker’? He had a manager/spokesman who would give interviews in a high pitch voice to try and sound scarey. I never laughed so hard.
What does this have to do with markets? Nothing, but I just wanted to share a laugh.
Ps. My other favorite wrestler was ‘IRS’ -Irving R Schister, he would come out with a briefcase and tell competitors they would get an ‘audit’. Man those were the days…
Funny, when I wrote that he crossed my mind, the guy holding the urn.
Paul Bearer died recently. RIP
“ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!” (Paul Bearer voice)
uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuundertaker will rise from the shadowy depths of hell, to CRUSH YOU! [rage turns to giggle] Ha, ha, he, he, muhahahaahah! (Paul Bearer voice) [undertaker stares from under his brim].
This makes my point Cp’n Fly, ere’s what ya need:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeJF8wV1ZK0
I think his name is ‘Paul Bearer’. But remember, The Undertaker may LOOK dead, but in the end he kicks ASS.
What are your thoughts on solar? do you like SUNE?
I was a buyer of sune at 5, no interest here
Slow and steady.
Any wild ass quick like attempt to make up a loss never works.
I know you know it but sometimes one goes into denial about these things and believes this time will be different (it won’t be).
Russell has really been diverging and we are perhaps in the early stage of something like the ’60 where small cap growth is dead and large cap plods ahead.
Ain’t gonna happen. Not with the growth rates of some of these smaller companies. Money will rotate out of mega caps because all you hear is that is the way to go. I never made any good money with the herd. I sold my aapl yest. Had shares in the 80’s all the way up to 600’s that I bought. When I was buying in the 400’s everyone was negative. Now I sold for immense profits and will rebuy when it comes down again.
Fly: Are you not afraid of losing most of your customers when they see they are DOWN 32%?
Bomb
No
Thoughts on CPST senor?
Secondary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeJF8wV1ZK0
check out Paul at 8:00 LOL!
Fly, maybe could you write an algo predicated on yourself, that figures out how to project the appropriate holding period for your own insanely insightful thesis picks a.k.a FTK, WNR, YELP, PPC etc….
Fly, just curious as to your thoughts on this: it seems that after the pounding YELP took leading up to earnings, shouldn’t it have had a very limited downside, even if earnings disappointed?
GWPH. Buy on any dip; sell the month’s call on the next strike, instant +14%. Coke-addled premiums on this one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3l01uUKWZw
Mr. Fly, I know you laugh at the idea that this market will crash. I believe it will. I believe that nothing has really changed and we are going to see another 2009 or worse. Patients are what’s needed at this stage. The easy money has been made. But there will be another chance at dirt cheap prices. Remember GE at 6? I do. I bought 300,000 dollars worth. its coming again. But, I have never understood why its so easy to lose 100K in a couple days and so hard to make it in the same time frame. lol! Good luck, you will be back. And for the most part so will I.
You are gonna be by yourself with your crash. Market has never crashed with rates this low.
I understand that. There is a lot more in play right now. Russia, China, economy…etc But I could be wrong.
Nearly everyone with a functioning brain realizes that virtually nothing has changed since 2007/8. The market is nothing more than a bucket of manure propped up by the Fed via artificial $$,00.(sticking with the agricultural theme, maybe propped up by artificial insemination is more accurate)…..
At any rate, there is little real growth to be had anywhere other than where the Feds helicopter billions….trillions?….have made things appear more rosy than they really are.
It. Will. Crash.
I agree. The interest rate is all they have left. but that will soon not help either.
Fly needs to play options. I understand that there is an awesome options trader who has a blog on this site.
Are you that dumb?? Options player consistently lose. Theta burn.
you’re justifying theta as the reason why option traders lose?
you do know you can always take the OPPOSITE side of a trade, don’t you? if there’s an opposite side to a trade that CONSISTENTLY LOSES, as you stated, you wouldn’t take that bet?
@Fly – agree with ur post. i’m in the same situation. depressing. i’ll be happy to get half my losses back before yr end
I know you play with a shit load of capital but have you ever thought about scalping with very large positions using ETFs?
Date Settlement Date Symbol Description Commission/Fees Interest Amount Avg Price
4/30/2014 – INTEREST EARNED BANK DEP PROGRAM 30 DAYS @ 0.01% APYE 0.01% $2.12 CR. BAL 257,626.04 $0.00 $0.00 $2.12 No
4/28/2014 5/1/2014 TNA SOLD 4100 SHARES OF TNA AT $69.3301 ($13.29) $0.00 $284,240.12 No
4/28/2014 5/1/2014 TNA BOUGHT 4100 SHARES OF TNA AT $68.4799 ($7.00) $0.00 ($280,774.59) No
4/22/2014 4/25/2014 TNA SOLD 3825 SHARES OF TNA AT $73.43 ($13.21) $0.00 $280,856.54 No
4/22/2014 4/25/2014 TNA BOUGHT 3825 SHARES OF TNA AT $72.5099 ($7.00) $0.00 ($277,357.37) No
4/14/2014 4/17/2014 TNA SOLD 4025 SHARES OF TNA AT $68.79 ($13.12) $0.00 $276,866.63 No
4/14/2014 4/17/2014 TNA BOUGHT 4025 SHARES OF TNA AT $67.78 ($7.00) $0.00 ($272,821.50) No
4/8/2014 4/11/2014 TNA SOLD 3800 SHARES OF TNA AT $72.0301 ($13.05) $0.00 $273,701.33 No
4/7/2014 4/10/2014 TNA BOUGHT 3800 SHARES OF TNA AT $70.95 ($7.00) $0.00 ($269,617.00) No
3/31/2014 – INTEREST EARNED BANK DEP PROGRAM 31 DAYS @ 0.01% APYE 0.01% $2.24 CR. BAL 263,873.52 $0.00 $0.00 $2.24 No
3/28/2014 4/2/2014 TNA SOLD 3550 SHARES OF TNA AT $75.07 ($12.89) $0.00 $266,485.61 No
3/27/2014 4/1/2014 TNA BOUGHT 3550 SHARES OF TNA AT $73.98 ($7.00) $0.00 ($262,636.00) No
3/13/2014 3/18/2014 UVXY SOLD 3850 SHARES OF UVXY AT $69.08 ($11.63) $0.00 $265,946.37 No
3/13/2014 3/18/2014 UVXY BOUGHT 3850 SHARES OF UVXY AT $68.54 ($7.00) $0.00 ($263,886.00) No
3/13/2014 – TRANSFER TO SCOTTRADE BNKACCT XX9229 $0.00 $0.00 ($500.00) No
3/7/2014 3/12/2014 TNA SOLD 3100 SHARES OF TNA AT $85.16 ($11.60) $0.00 $263,984.40 No
3/7/2014 3/12/2014 TNA BOUGHT 3100 SHARES OF TNA AT $84.09 ($7.00) $0.00 ($260,686.00) No
3/3/2014 3/6/2014 TNA SOLD 3290 SHARES OF TNA AT $79.20 ($11.54) $0.00 $260,556.46 No
3/3/2014 3/6/2014 TNA BOUGHT 3290 SHARES OF TNA AT $78.83 ($7.00) $0.00 ($259,357.70) No
Nice trading!
Ha ha!
What trips the retail unwashed is the bitterness after a bad run.
Pros fall to the greed following a good run.
Going in gang-ho to get ‘our money’ back is the prerogative of us fools 🙂
I lost lots money this year and stepped sideline for now. As G. Soros predicted 2014 will be a year of survive rather than making money. He seems right. I will try making back even slowly. But survive first. Mr. Fry, thank you for your honest words.
Thoughts on IFON? Is it your top pick right now? Can we discuss small caps that have been beaten down and have a chance of being homeruns the focus of a future post?
I have DNN on my radar….
Sorry Mr. “Fly”
1. I think you need some $SDRL.
2. I hardly deign to offer advice to an esteemed gentleman and scholar such as yourself, but whenever I’ve thought in terms of “making it back,” whether that was in business, in a casino, or in the markets — and, in fact, particularly in the markets — it’s caused me to make bad decisions and to just dig the hole deeper.
Why SDRL? What do you like besides the 11% dividend?
I like that it’s at the bottom of a big channel starting in March of ’09, and it has a pretty good history of consistent dividend raises.
I also see fib support around $34.21.
Seems like you’re risking a buck or two here in order to potentially see it run up to $54 or so, should it go back up to that channel top in an expected timeframe, all while getting a massive yield that I think is unlikely to be cut or suspended.
Also has a 6.52 P/E right now.
There’s a reason for the low price — it has some debt — but it has a young fleet and I think it will grow its way out it once people realize that while fracking is nice, deep sea drilling still is necessary / lucrative.
Looking at some of these momos that have gotten crushed these past 2 months. So tempted to get back in some of these names.
That’s me every time I’ve been to Vegas. Baby needs a new MOMO Chinese Burrito
Anyone have thoughts on GNRC? (I currently have no position).
“Difficult takes a day, impossible takes a week” – Jay-Z
$NUS and a little time is part of the answer.
I wouldn’t scratch my ass with NUS
Arr, but would yee scratch yer A-$NUS?
Walked inta that one, yee did…
Thumbs up..LOL!
iFON ( have me sum), will go sky high after it’s raving endorsement from some Terror Camp as their go-to IED
2nd the comments on CPST – interesting now that the secondary is complete.
all-in on YELP front month calls for the earnings play would have done it. lol
Or wiped him completely out.
Wtf is wrong with the regional banks? KRE is barely hanging on. Zero bounce in this last floater of the indices.
Gold miners?