But just not yet.
The reason why the tech sector is in vapor lock mode is because they are reporting good numbers and their shares are trading off anyway. Everyone is scared to hold during earnings; therefore, we have a bid less market. I am almost 100% convinced that I was wrong about my “this time is different” assessment of the nature of the decline. I am very close to the Einhorn way of thinking now, that this is identical to the dot com blow up. Price to sales ratios should compress to 10x and under, while larger cap grandma stocks hold firm.
The bear market won’t happen until next year, if ever. But, one thing is for certain: this is no garden variety sell off, where we can simply brush it under the rug and make believe that a massive destruction of wealth had not occurred.
Therefore, until I get an edge, until I gather up some gains, I will remain in a 90% cash position, waiting for an extreme oversold condition. We will measure such a condition by analyzing the technical and fundamental data of over 4,000 companies and try to time an inflection point just right. Without a compass, you’re all just wandering around the wilderness, listening to fools teach other fools how to get lost.
I apologize for being so reckless, as it is never a habit of mine to ride things out because of an emotional whim.
I am feeling optimistic and look forward to capitalizing on said opportunity very soon.
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That yelp buyout is getting cheaper by the day for yahoo.
Thanks Fly..Your insight is greatly valued and appreciated.
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… please see last post … on previous thread !
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I’m too lazy.
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Can I repost ?
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Just read it.
Not sure if that’s the best thing for the site, as a whole. I’d be happy to do it on occasion. However, after all, I am Emperor Supreme, Master and Commander of the Internets.
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Ah hem … THAT … you ARE !!!
As I said … just a thought !!!
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The reason has more to do with traffic, than hearing some excellent ideas.
Fly has charisma, the other bloggers don’t even come close
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I find chessNwine pretty damn “charismatic” !!!
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Really? How so? He’s definitely sharp … but also incredibly bland imo
I mean, here you get fisticuffs, meated loaf, crass cynicism, even the occasional mustache removal and over there it’s just a thick neww yawwwk accent lecturing you about respecting the XYZ. It’s clear he takes his work serious so that’s commendable.
^ Clearly just an anonymous opinion, he works hard, so in before the “where’s your blog blah blah blah”
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… the thing is … YOU … tend to suck the air right out of the “room” !!!
These guys are workin’ hard …
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Meanwhile, you got a great “supporting cast” … that are relegated as “extras” … on a casting call !!!
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SHARE THE SPOTLIGHT !!!
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That is what SUPERSTARS do !!!
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reminds me of the “backdraft” phenomenon in a raging inferno
Maybe I can play the “Jack’s Cold Sweat” to Fly’s Tyler Durden
I think FEYE is trading around 9 x sales.
The mob loves a comeback, or at least I do. Looking forward to watching it.
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Spurs 73
Mavs 65
Start of the 4th Quarter !
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I am sure Original Don will disagree with those numbers Alf.
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… that dude bears a striking resemblance to “Jake Gint” … in his posting style !
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Well you would know better than most. I doubt Jake would bother taking me to task so vigorously, as we are on good terms.
Reading some of Jake’s stuff just now I can see that is a first class compliment, so thank you
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… YEP !!!
You’re “Jake” alright !!!
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Only that pompous fuckin’ ass would come back with that self righteous BS !!!
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😀
I agree Jake Gint is/was “pompous fuckin’ ass” 🙂
But I like Original Don for his insight.
And I bet he is a system trader!
For most, being exceedingly cautious and skeptical of backtest results is an absolute must, just to ensure survival – if not winship.
That was funny, obviously your sense of humor is still sharp as ever
Quiet around here. Disbelief or discouragement?
Distention
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BTW, MAVS lose !
SIGH !!!
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During the .com blow up, did the Nasdaq mask the carnage underneath or are we still too early in the cycle?
Og
Yes!
Great cover picture.
We will find out who this original don is before it’s all said and done.
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… Well, I got my suspicions !!!
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Don
We did the same Qqq study and it netted a 58% return for 2013 and 12% for 2014.
Meant to say, we applied the Qqq study with ppt OS signals to Tqqq
And TQQQ was up 52.3% in 2012 and 139.7% in 2013, so that doesn’t change the core of the point
“Simply put, I don’t believe using data points from the upper 90th percentile of market returns in the last few decades as the core basis for the study will bear out with similar results in the future, especially since you expect a lot more volatility.”
Citing what a buy and hold return versus one that has much less risk, by holding for just 1/3rd of the time is simply retarded.
Apples and oranges. Go swing from your banana tree you big stupid gorilla
Mr. Fly How can you make this statement? “The bear market won’t happen until next year, if ever” As if there is a chance there will “never” be a bear mkt. That is an extremely naïve declaration. All its going to take is an interest rate increase.
They will never ever raise rates
the market is about to take off today. I predict up 200 in the DOW.
I see your 200 and raise you another 200. The markets will never drop again!!! The machines will see to that. DOW 25k or bust (where bust is not an option)!
No, you fool. The markets are topping, but they will not go down easily. Today will be an up 200 day, and it should be shorted.
from a Cramer article: http://www.thestreet.com/story/12685278/1/jim-cramer-the-blueprints-for-this-market.html
There was a prolonged period, beginning in 1998, where the highest fliers took off. But things didn’t start to go nuts by traditional metrics until August 1999. Take this stroll down memory lane with some of the more prominent and yes, profitable, momentum stocks of the era. In just a year’s time Ariba went from a $6 billion market capitalization to $35 billion in 2000, before bottoming at $358 million in 2002. Brocade (BRCD) ran from $7 billion to $25 billion and then back to $1.5 billion in 2002. Broadcom (BRCM) went from $5 billion to $59 billion and then back to $4 billion in 2002. JDS Uniphase (JDSU) went from $5 billion to $114 billion and then to $3 billion in 2002. Juniper (JNPR) went from $17 billion in 1999 to $40 billion in 2000 to $2.5 billion in 2002. QLogic (QLGC) went from $1 billion to $12 billion and then back to $4 billion in 2002. Others had somewhat similar trajectories but took off earlier: Qualcomm (QCOM) went from $3 billion in 1998 to $54 billion in 2000 to $22 billion in 2002. VeriSign (VRSN) went from $1 billion in 1998 to $19 billion in 1999, before falling to $1.9 billion in 2002.
I like my futures like my drugs. Green and large.