TLT has just marched from $114 to $124, without fanfare or untoward publicity. The Yen has rebounded and is starting to gain some upward momentum. At the same time, the SPY continues to hit new highs, all the while the jobs market and earnings come in less than stellar.
I’ve always been a huge advocate, almost to the point of worship, of the Federal Reserve–Benjamin “Blunt Smokin'” Bernanke and his miraculous beard. I was always at the forefront, reminding people what POMO meant for stocks and how a little cocaine never killed anyone, when applied to the markets of course. But even legends such as Ben need a day off, in this case a single month.
Yes, everyone thinks the market will trade down in May; therefore, as all laws of contrarian opinion go, the markets shall rise again. But what about the 6 month winning streak for the SPY? Surely, if the market is up for 6 straight months, there must be some “excess speculative fervor”, no?
According to the laws (don’t shoot the messenger) of seasonality, it doesn’t matter what you think or say. The month of May is siesta time for policy makers. It’s the time of year everyone long stocks finds God, begging for his forgiveness, so that he may grant respite.
I, myself, am a victim today, long both AMBA and RBCN into the sharpest of teeth. My largest position is cash; but I haven’t a solitary hedge. Therefore, it goes without saying, I am losing my shirt today. But there’s a certain feeling of exhilaration in today’s rout, one that demotivates me from acting in favor of watching.
So I shall watch, as the rats scurry about–in search for more cheese. In the meantime, 80% of stocks are lower today. The tape is much worse than the indices suggest.
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What do you think about USG?
Love it.
Getting hit with many housing plays today.
Don’t forget, I invited you into the (very long) bus of shorting precious metals, yesterday.
BGC is a worthwhile counterpoint to the ‘housing recovering’ thesis. Seems to me the real estate market is stronger, but its not yet trickling into actual construction.
@fly Thanks, I think I’ll add a little.
Not only are stocks lower in dollar terms, but the dollar is lower in terms of foreign currency…
So today stocks lost even more value than on the surface, especially when priced in inverse ETFs.
p.s. what happened to the bitcoin market?
Nymex crude -2.8%
HOD +5.4%
Still seems to be working
Stocks are lower than their actual prices.
52 week highs for $NOC, $LMT
War never goes out of style.
picked up AGN at 97, TCP at 45.06 for hopefully a divy capture. nice to be in cash.
Very mild pullback with buyers stepping in. Look at AAPL. Beautiful. Smart money buys the dip. The dips think the market will sell off sharply. This market shrugs everything off. Stay long
Fly left scratching head again today as markets head higher from lows. He doesn’t understand the power of QE 🙂
Market timing is as useless as tits on a boarhog.
Yep! Sticking with the trend has always served me well, ill leave the market timing stuff to the gypsies and palm readers..lol
JRCC squeezing 34%.
met a guy yesterday, said he could predict the future, with that he stuck his finger up his nose… the finger returned with a grand booger.. he started to make predictions of the future… guess you could call him NOSTRIL-DAMIS… JUST LIKE THIS MARKET… a joke.