iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,433 Blog Posts

A Case of the Nervous Nellies

Critics argue that I’ve been too cautious for too long, effectively missing out on some good rallies in cocaine and other drug related stocks. The truth is, I am Rocky Balboa, post Clubber Lang knockout, scared while running on the beach with Apollo Creed.

I’ve been taken to the woodshed for two years in a row, after achieving huge gains early on. The collapse occurred the same way it always does: I get all bearish, then lose patience, invest all of my money, then the market collapses.

Rinse and repeat.

It’s the preferred recipe to cook a Fly on Wall Street.

So pardon my apprehensiveness if I opt to wait out the harder months of the year, preserving a high teenage digit return, while living the life of leisure that the Gods intended me to have. There isn’t anything wrong, per se, with having 40% of my assets in cash. It only speak to a profound act of cowardice, one that I admit to be guilty of.

One cannot expect to achieve greatness while watching from the sidelines–all very well and true. But I, my friends, am sitting on the sidelines in an Orbital Space Cannon (OSC)–fully intent on committing aggressive acts of war at a given notice.

Do not worry about Le Fly, for he is partaking in “stock market art,” using his portfolio as a canvas. In time, the gains will come together. Until the market adjusts to what I deem to be “reasonably oversold,” I will continue to flee from risk, running away with a yellow line painted on my back.

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36 comments

  1. The Pirate

    Damn Rock, cmon!!!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UC_1U7xgAeY

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  2. pushaT

    “The better part of Valour, is Discretion; in the which better part, I haue saued my life” –Falstaff

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  3. LX1X10^100

    its funny to see so many traders bickering at you that you aren’t long enough or mad that you dare to suggest a pullback. There is something to be taken from these tea leaves…

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  4. Julz

    Don Senor Le Fly, nice read. In times of weakness do you write options against your positions?

    Cheers,
    Jules

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  5. GeezerWhiz

    It is one thing to call for a “pullback”, for a pullback is part of any bull market and it is healthy. It is quite another to call for a massive drop in the markets that will wipe out anyone holding long. The Fly has been saying the latter over and over for a long time now. However, the market keep marching higher and now he says he has simply been “cautious: and calling for a “pullback”. That is funny! Sorry Fly, you’ve been wrong on your call for a total meltdown in the markets. As long as Bernanke is in control, it just ain’t gonna happen. Sorry.

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    • Long and STRONG

      Is it just me or is EVERYONE in EVERY FINANCIAL FORUM and EVERY HEADLINE calling for a DROP IN MAY just because it has a history of selling off like it’s a 100% certainty it will do it again! BUY IN MAY AND GO AWAY will be the theme this time. Headed higher and chopping off balls in May!

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    • The Fly

      I have never made a short bet calling for a total meltdown.

      Banned

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      • Sinbad2026

        Why would you ban him just because he called you out for something you DID predict in December for January? You say you’ve never called for a market meltdown? Then what is this:

        “I can’t help but believe that January is going to bring hell. This is all very reminiscent of 2007, when I was saddled HEAVY SHORT into the New Year. Stocks were making new highs and everyone was high as fuck on the real estate cocaine train–until 2008 came. I don’t know what it is about year changes, but the market is very sentimental about the calendar. Brace yourselves for a very black January, filled with toxic smoke and chards of metal floating throughout your neighborhoods.
        I am so convinced about this eventuality, coupled with the inevitability of us going over the fiscal cliff, I may rescind my promises to “never short the market” and just fucking do it. Stocks will quickly dive lower, as soon as 2013 hits because the forecast is grim.”

        You were also clamoring much of the same recently about post-tax date. Then as the market steams higher you get long again. Enough of the predictions and just stick with the tape. Anyone can “be cautious” and “look for a pullback” in a rip-roaring bull market. Pullbacks are inevitable along the way.

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        • The Fly

          These all are lies and propaganda.

          These are great halls. You needn’t converse with others superior to you. As a result, you’re banned too.

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    • JJ

      +1 trillion likes
      as long as there is a wall of worry, and interest rates are at a record bottom, top callers will get their ball chopped off. ;-D

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  6. Cornethius12

    The FLY’s call for total meltdown. Can’t have it both ways:

    http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2012/12/03/random-late-night-pearls-wisdom/

    He was singing the same tune last month:

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    • The Fly

      I adjust my calls for meltdowns on a minute by minute basis.

      Predictions are for entertainment. Actions are what should be ridiculed.

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  7. Trading_Nymph

    With NO Fear in the Market, (like how low are Italian/Spain Bonds)..like how much can the Clam Magic Show really wow this market? ..FWIW IMHO, Fly I think I am more like Rocky 1, a amature, brused and bleeding, a mess, but still in the ring…your more like George Foreman, Great Fights and Great Career.

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    • Bullish

      You are more like Tommy Gun… stricken with the AIDS virus.

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      • Trading_Nymph

        lol…lame. Did you see Flash PMI’s and todays Chicago PMI…2009 level, for that, this is a financial experiment that will end so ugly…I will win in the end…the final Bell has not rung.

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      • 200day

        LOL!

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  8. Vertigo

    Stallone’s best movie is ‘Death Race 2000’ (with David Carradine as ‘Frankenstein’) – not the Rocky series.

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  9. Mr. President

    Just to be clear, if this is you: http://i.imgur.com/dR9Gu.gif, then who is the other chap?

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  10. Yabollox

    Waiting is not doing nothing.

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  11. The Fly

    Only a handful of you are professionals, responsible for millions of dollars. Most simply trade in and out of stupid stocks because their accounts themselves are in fact stupid.

    Refrain from passing judgement on the professionals here.

    Thx

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  12. The Fly

    There isn’t any controversy gents. These are smear tactics by a singular person, using multiple user names.

    I’ve always been long in 2013. So much so, after January, seeing the market rally, I was 140% long until late march.

    Anyone suggesting otherwise has to be banned.

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  13. heaterman

    The Bernanke will continue to pump up the US market until it is the only financial “entity” left rising in the entire world.

    Then he will say, “All your money are ours”. And pull the plug.

    To all the young Skywalkers out there…..this is the only way the US can unwind it’s debt.

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  14. PostApocalypticTrader
    PostApocalypticTrader

    Totally agree, Fly. I have been in 50% cash for a week. Today I deployed a bit of cash into inverse ETFs, which might turn out to be early, but with patience will put me on the right side of the trade very soon.

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  15. Mr. President

    Le Fly,

    Any interest in dabbling in 3X / degenerate / psychopath ETFs, like circa a year or two ago?

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  16. Blind Read Ant

    BC V Commeth soon. Keep the eyes out.

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