iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,431 Blog Posts

Facing New Realities

I am enjoying the global warmed winter. We nearly had a hurricane here last night. The trees in the yard were menacing my house, as wind gusts knocked out the power, disrupting my movie watching excursions. Truth be told, my power returned within a few hours–but it was still an inconvenience.

I do not miss the winter. It’s been several years since the winter showed itself in the tri-state area. The new climes are wonderful for people who loathe shoveling snow, but dreadful for retailers.

I’d avoid any and all retailers because their highest margin products are winter garments. I don’t care what Sam Poser says, DECK is a sell.

On the other hand, this warm weather is a boon for restaurants. Places of gluttony, like PNRA and CMG, should continue to do well. I hate fast food restaurants. But upscale casual dining is a sweet spot that should engender plenty of shareholder satisfaction.

Also, with warmer climes comes the unfortunate side effect of storm activity. As power outages persist, sales of generators will soar. I am having a permanent, natural gas, generator installed, made by GNRC.

FB is selling off hard. My position is so small, I don’t care what happens to the stock. There were some impressive earnings last night, especially from CTXS, QCOM and SWKS. Last quarter was dreadful and was reflected in the number of earnings short falls, as well as negative GDP. Look at the bright side: the markets are near new highs, even though the economy contracted last quarter. Should we grow by 1.5% this quarter, the market should rip higher, based upon some pretty decent quarter over quarter growth.

The only way this market gets derailed is by government interference. Until April 15th, any dips should be viewed as an opportunity to gather some free money for the lean summer months that will follow.

 

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16 comments

  1. Freddy Fishsticks
    Freddy Fishsticks

    I see weakness in some critical sectors – heavy manufacturing/transport not the least of which.

    Scared.

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  2. The Eye-Talian Stallion
    The Eye-Talian Stallion

    MCD – 47M folks a day like fast food, onward to $100

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  3. razorsedge

    was looking at drug makers today. i then read an artical about how this roofer contracted shingles. ironc no?(LLY)

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  4. Bozo on a bus

    Sir Fly, I live a few miles west of Princeton. I’m very surprised your power went out. We had the same high winds but no interruption. We have had two outages in the last five years; both were caused by auto accidents.

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    • The Fly

      What town are you in, Bozo?

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      • TraderCaddy

        I thought everybody knew that Bozo lives in MagicCity, USA and yes it is West of Princeton.
        Even if Bozo’s electricity went out I am sure his helpers Sandy The Clown and Ringmaster Ned would have helped out.
        I know this because you can’t keep a good clown down.

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      • Bozo on a bus

        Fly, I live in Plainsboro, which is actually northeast of Princeton (I must have been thinking of work when I said west). Almost all of the local power lines are underground, except for the numerous high voltage transmission lines. For whatever reason, apart from Sandy, we have had almost no power failures.

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  5. tm

    Not sure what you are talking about with the weather. In Boston, it’s been warm for the last two days. Before that it was frigid (well below avg temps) for weeks. Regardless I wouldn’t extrapolate to a national trend, which is what you’d need to trade names like PNRA.

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  6. haha

    Man Made global warming is such a farce.

    Yes climates don’t remain constant, but they never did even long before the automobile.

    Dinosaurs may have even been extinct because of climate change, yet somehow because of cars we should all pay carbon taxes and businesses should go green or be taxed to death? LOL! It’s supposed to be 70 degrees 24/7 365 a year and because it’s not, somehow it’s our fault? LOL.

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