I always expect the worst; therefore, whenever something good happens, it’s an upside surprise.
People can never disappoint you when you fully expect them to fuck up. The same goes for The Fiscal Cliff negotiations and everything that comes with it. I was going to dedicate tonight to making predictions, like some sort of sorcerer, foretelling the events of 2013. But I lost interest after reflecting upon how ridiculous it makes me look, considering the fact that nothing can be predicted in a country that is designed like a carnivale funhouse.
The mirrors are wacky and so are the patrons. This is the reason why I’ve thrown out all of my glorified ideas of ‘thesis trading’ and sticking with core fundamentals. It’s all a crock of shit, so I might as well acknowledge it and trade accordingly.
There is plenty of diversification in the ETF world and I will be using them a lot more in 2013.
In the meantime, I’m long an enormous amount of VHC, given to me by seemingly smart and connected folks. I’ve watched in sheer horror a +20% winner turn into a loss and there is nothing that I can do about it. The options market is illiquid, as well as the stock. People who are up are selling to lock in lower capital gains rates and the Cramer crowd are dumping for fear of losing their shirts. I imagine this is happening to many stocks right now. It’s best to reevaluate your investments after the New Year.
With regards to VHC, they have a court date on 1/15 and I find it hard to believe that anything coming out of that hearing will be negative for the share price. Shortly afterwards, in March, they are scheduled to beat CSCO over the head with clawhammers, claiming ‘willful infringement.’ There will be plenty of catalysts that will drive VHC higher in 2013. I have to remind myself that the trading taking place now is nothing more than amateurish tomfoolery.
Regarding the cliff, as predicted, we’re going over it. I don’t think they will come to an agreement until late January, maybe even later. The reaction might be negative; but rest assured, like all other frantic crisis we’ve endured these last few years, it will be used to fuel the fire for a fanatical short squeeze and subsequent upside explosion in stock prices.
Until then, I am 35% cash.
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I watched “Meat” the Press today, apparantly the blame falls at the feet of the “50” hard-right elected Officials.
Seems they ran short of riot-inspiring Youtube movies.
I am buying VHC.
Futures are up. LOL!
Futures are down 8 after fair value
The political process sure is a clusterfuck.
I fully expect to be drawn and quartered by folks for saying this, but democracy is inefficient by its very nature. At least they are all bickering and fighting. People get voted in to do so.
Should this have ended already? Of course. However those that were voted in were voted in to stand by their beliefs.
Perhaps that is actually taking place? I sincerely doubt it because most politicians are out for themselves and only attend to matters that will give them an uptick in re-election polling. I am just considering that maybe this is good. To fight and hash it out to the bitter end.
I have a feeling I am being a bit naive and too hopeful with that attitude. Nothing changes. And the “system” is corrupt as hell on many levels.
However non-compromise can be good in the long run. For the markets and the nation.
(of course recession in the short term is not good.)
While the VHC story is compelling, putting your cash in the hands of lawyers and judges is akin to putting it in the hands of wide receiver, quarterbacks, and running backs.
Fly, Chuck said we could petition you on his & the Devil’s behalf, so I did. But I don’t really understand your relationship to one another at present. In the past, it seemed like you were all friends. Did you & Chuck or the Devil have a fight about VHC and are no longer friends?
Chuck had dinner at my home last night.
Oh good. I like you both & didn’t want to see you folks lose your friendship. I was afraid getting Cramered might have come between you.
Some interesting facts about 1976:
-April 1 – Apple Computer Company is formed by Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak
-TraderCaddy kicks ass in 2d year of law school (makes law review) after almost flunking out in 1st semester of year one
-NBA -ABA merge
-November 26 – Microsoft is officially registered with the Office of the Secretary of the State of New Mexico.
-DJIA gains 53 points in first week to 900 after tax loss selling week before (Dec. 75)
-TraderCaddy buys a real “groovy” used Ford Maverick with plaid seats.
’76
I traded My 3.5hp mini-bike for a Browning 22
And those were the highlights
Fly got Cramered by VHC.
agree with fly here…our mentally retarded congress of rednecks and insider trading scumbags will give us a great buying opp soon
Fiscal cliff soon to be old news.
GOP will mostly back off and shift the battle to the debt limit, figuring that they will be in a better bargaining position when tax cuts have been restored.
The debt limit fight is likely to be more disruptive to the markets as a result.