I’ve researched these peak-trough cycles to identify what sectors perform best going from trough to peak and the results are unanimous: get long silver. Both gold and silver represent reflation, as well as “safety.” When the market bottoms, without a doubt, the miners will offer the best returns for aggressive investors.
My favorites are AG, EXK and maybe a little PAAS.
The billion dollar question is “when will the fucking market bottom already?”
It’s hard to bottom when the higher tax ax looms in the balance. I don’t think Israel bombing the shit out of Gaza has anything to do with the PE ratio of AAPL; therefore, it’s irrelevant. I doubt the GOP is going to allow Obama cut a “fiscal cliff” deal. I really believe we’re going over that fucking cliff and crashing into a depot filled with flammables.
But, in the event they do cut a deal, this market is going to rip higher.
I’m not a coal man anymore, so coal and steel are off the table for me. On a bounce, I like tech and precious metals. Tech stocks like CRUS, NXPI, IPGP and CREE are of great interest to me.
We’re in trouble here. We need to bounce now.
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WE’RE IN BEAR MARKET!!!!!!!!!
correct. But even in bear markets, bounces are to be found.
Don’t be a stupid fucking moron.
Gary North on “Why Gold Owners Are Targets of the Government”
Assuming this applies to silver owners, too.
http://www.garynorth.com/public/4857.cfm
Trading the metals is out of the question, IMO. Holding them for an overnight USD devaluation is the better trade.
This is pure gold:
“Why would a central bank or the IMF say in advance that it planned to sell a large portion of its gold holdings? When a large holder of commodities is going to sell the commodity into the open market, he does not announce this in advance. His goal is to maximize the amount of money he gains by the sale of the asset. If he warns the world in advance how much he plans to sell and over which time period, this will depress the price if the sale constitutes a significant quantity. It is economically irrational for a seller of commodity to say in advance how much she plans to sell. I say “economically irrational” on the assumption that the goal is to make a profit. But if the goal is not to make a profit, but rather to inflict economic harm on people who hold a particular commodity as an investment, the announcement makes eminently good sense.
The fact that the IMF sale was announced by the IMF for years preceding the G20 meeting, and the fact that it was announced at the G20 meeting, indicate the degree of the hostility of the IMF and the central bankers to people who invest in gold. They were willing to take a loss in terms of the amount of money they could have obtained for the gold by quiet, unannounced sales. They are willing to take this loss because they believe that it is more important to create uncertainty in the gold market than it is to maximize the amount of fiat money gained by the sale of gold. So committed are these people to inflicting financial losses on gold investors that they are willing to suffer hundreds of millions of dollars of losses. After all, it’s not their money.”
The IMF pump and dumb announcements have no sustaining power. Nobody cares because they never go through with it.
If governments really want to hurt gold owners, they could always jack interest rates and close the deficits…
The central bankers want Americans to get used to the idea of not making any interest on their wealth, and skipping retirement to become worker slaves for life. This will ensure we shut the fuck up and stay out of central bankers affairs forever.
Thusly, zero interest rates forever.
Deficits will never be paid off. They can be paid off today by any govt, with zero repercussions, but the BIS pressures them not to.
The need for a reason to enslave humanity for its “evil” acts of consumerism must be in place. This is to convince the Tavistock-humping public to give up everything to cut carbon emissions.
Otherwise, I would say you are right.
“Deficits will never be paid off. They can be paid off today by any govt, with zero repercussions, but the BIS pressures them not to.”
aaaaarrru…??
Aaarrruu back to you… whatever that means.
http://www.themoneymasters.com/monetary-reform-act/
All governments have the power to issue their own debt and credit, and then erase all of it. A private corporation does not need to do this for them (a central bank).
the biggest problem here is there is absolutely no fear…can’t have a real bottom without real fear
and money never went into bonds yesterday indicating another data point of no fear
NTAP was on your value list a month ago…looks like she cut a bottom today
Is that you, Ozzie Joe?
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who the fuck is ozzie joe?
Aussie joe?
Cotton-eye joe?
There was a currecncy trader here who used to sign in under the rubric “joe.”
He was from Australia.
Capisce?
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Bounces are to be found for sure. But is the bounce up higher than the drop down? You can thesis this or that but until there is a capitulation it’s a crapshoot. If you have the balls and deep pockets to ride out the wide swings then go for it. Otherwise stay on the sidelines.
It is not out of the realm of possibility that we will have a rip to the upside which will allow the bigs to unload before the new year.
Fly, any idea why SWHC shit the bed yesterday?
I think EXK stands for Ex-crete.
Ex-kiting at under $8 like this.
RGLD too, wow!
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Think of EXK and gold and SWHC like coiled cobras waiting to strike and when they do they will all poison you and your family’s family.
In a bear market (and I don’t know when) everything gets sold (not t-bills) especially commodities and that includes gold and silver.
Metals stocks fall faster and farther.
So what did I learn today?
I learned from listening to WFAN that it was George Halas (Bears owner) who played outfield for the Yankees just before they got Babe Ruth. Thanks to Butch from Brooklyn for that one.
VHC nearing 30
EXK doesn’t look to regain any footing until 7.50 at least. Until then, it seems to be an exercise in futility.
Vhc has been horrible this week.
the “fickle” shareholder base of $VHC has not changed – the shorts are still in control – short squeezes are a thing of the past, they are but myths….
We soon.
Just bought SMH etf and xlf etf for a quickie daytrade.
Waiting to go into GDXJ etf for a day trade.
Got killed on VHC! Thanks Fly!
hey Dumbo, at the end of the day you pulled the trigger, so man up !
remember when the fly put a gun to your head and forced you to buy VHC?
That was cool.
chortle.
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Ben just dropped $$ from the sky.
Now just bought GDXJ and CDE and SLW- in and out trades.
VHC is repeating the pattern again. quick gain then quick drop. Terrible.
Out.
Made too much too quick.
Need to take a nap and get ready for the early bird special at Golden Corral.
You are one of the funniest guys I know TC.
But like a prophet in his home town, very underappreciated.
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Sir Salty Snap Kick.
Hit Vegas’ buffet while the City’s in the economic pits. You can get a two week visit for the price of one in demand times.
Buffet paradise.
Caesar’s Bacchus IS the largest in the world (quality on all levels as well).
Much market cap is being pissed away for tax avoidance. Nice policy 0bama.
Have to agree that this is at least part of the pullback.
Why do I get the feeling that recent “buy” suggestions here (by everyone) SUCK big time?
Because the market is liquidating
Chicken, buy chicken
Fly, even with the populace preapred to blame GOP for lack of a deal, you think they’ll really put it over the edge? if so, what does GOP have to gain from this?
Ask Newt Gingrich. He parlayed a government shutdown in 1995 and 1996 into a lucrative career as a pundit and, for a time, leading position in a presidential primary.
It’s not about governing anymore (if it ever was) it’s about achieving personal ambitions.
Very cynical. Different people have different heartfelt views about what is the best policy for our nation.
Of course — I don’t doubt that’s true.
But how many have heartfelt views that if enacted would result in their getting / keeping less?
I’ll admit I am cynical, but — with respect to politics and government — I’d dearly love to see more evidence of why I shouldn’t be.
Boehner is a giant pussy. If he sacrifices for “personal ambition” it will be in capitulating to the Marxists, not in going the Gingrich route.
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Hmmm, Bronco Bama could have his own show on Fox News
@longview, ok, I give half a poitn to that thought. Now was the govetrnment shutdown at the beginning of Clinton’s term, or going into an election. It just seems ridiculous to try to pull that type of move at the beginning of a term.
house republicans have gerrymandered their districts (and Dems to lesser degree) so they have little to lose for voting in a “Tea Partyish” way. So yes they can take you over the cliff – but by late January I’d expect a deal in place.
Right now the GOP cannot agree to a damn thing since they are all Grover Norquist acolyctes.
So instead of raising taxes temporarily in December they will let fiscal cliff happen then “cut taxes” from higher levels after Jan 1 – just so they can yell they never raised taxes. Even though taxes will go up.
Raising taxes is not an issue… it’s the cutting of the spending.
You Dems’ modus operandi for years has been “yeah, yeah, you raise taxes and we’ll cut spending, WE PROMISE!”
And then you pull the football away when it comes time to cut.
You want compromise? Get serious about spending. Otherwise, over we go.
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Oh yeah – Congress has an 8% approval rating and almost every incumbent who was really running held serve. Thats why they dont need to do diddly – stoopid people think its every other Congress person’s fault, but not their own.
Hush now. Markets mean nothing today for it is opening day of deer season. Many Bambi’s will be slain, eviscerated and hauled off to be processed into sausages and silver dollar tenderloins. Oh the nummy goodness thereof.
How am I supposed to watch for deer when you are all talking about bears?
It’s all about men drinking beer and whiskey around the campfire and then tromping around in the woods with guns.
Nice post, Fly. Thanks.
FLY, what do you think of VHC now?
Gary Kaminsky is a sore-headed election loser.
And a LOUSY Stock Analyst.
I think it blows.
The ceiling on the VIX is close to 19, no rally until then…Yah Moh B There
Don’t blame me I did not vote for that ass! Lmao! People are such idiots!
best headline ever.
the silver bullet sounds like a female sex toy. So when you wrote “riding a silver bullet…” haha
I’m long MRE’s here.
VXX Thanksgiving
AGQ looking verrrry tasty here.
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Just bought GDXJ,SLV,KRE (regional bank etf) for another day trade right here.
SPX via financials holding up well- usually means a rally in the PM.
Too bad about Louisville FB team- on to BB.
VHC Open gap and monthly Pivot Point at 28.38. Monthly R2 = 36.80 Monthly R1 = 33.42. Yearly Pivot Point is 25.92 Yearly R1 40.82.
standard calc.
Everone’s liquidating locking in gains on big movers to take advantage of the gauranteed lower tax rate on capital gains.
I think budget deal timing is likely to be coordinated with US Congress holiday recess. They may have a deal in place, but no desire to change their current posturing before they go home for recess.