What to Expect From the Markets in October

Last year we went up 10.9% in October, following a tough summer. Over the past several months, the S&P has plodded along, almost methodically, 1-2.5% higher every month without volatility. The theme for 2012, thus far, has been “volatility compression.” Central banks have succeeded in succoring the insecurities of equity investors through grift. Because of the nature of this unbelievable melt up, many are waiting for the hammer to drop, wishcasting for it to be blunt.

On paper, October is the second best trading month of the year, second only to April, sporting a 68% win rate for the S&P. While it’s true, the month of October is most readily known for its flamboyantly gay market crashes and subsequent Louis Rukeyser specials. It’s also fact that the true nature of the market for the month of October is of supreme bullishness.

Based upon seasonality, which happens to be a fond novelty hobby of mine, certain stocks stand out in the month of October, such as FFIV, GPS, MAKO, even ERX. There is a full report inside of The PPT, for those who are interested. We have a working seasonality engine there for your most hedonistic desires.

In short, the market looks and smells like shit. But we have winds behind our sails, courtesy of the Fed, ECB and the seemingly never-ending walk higher–which has devastated purveyors of VXX.

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50 Responses to What to Expect From the Markets in October

moolahheaven says:

Hey Fly, you still long OSG and SVU?

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The Fly says:

yes

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moolahheaven says:

Thx!

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Good Q moolah.

The ATR on $SVU inched by winced tight in range ’till Q3′s end, but is now teasing at a drop.

Not known for penny trading, opportunity costs are casting doubts for me, too, on that position.

“Investing” is for dead and dying wheelchair fuckers.

This is a bot market (no grift).

One must play fast to get pay.

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The Eye-Talian Stallion says:

An old timer market hack I know is advising his fixed income folks to go from 25% equity 75% bonds to 100% bonds. The risk takers are advised to pull out at a moments notice while staying 100% long for now. This guy has been a bull for years so maybe he smells the same thing you do.

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vking says:

Two New BUYS…You know where you can find them…

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Bullish says:

Will you be doing a power point presentation momentarily?

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vking says:

With lasers and a smoke machine…makes sure you get a good seat

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The Fly says:

How about leg lifts? Will you demonstrate to the audience how to properly lift 1,500 lbs?

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vking says:

Developing…

I’ll assume you meant Leg Press…Which all depends on the sled…otherwise i can come by you…we can get a 12′ long 2×10 and I can leg ress a dozen mexican lawn guys

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L.K.W. says:

Impressive!

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vking says:

If you think that’s impressive you should check out The V.Kingdom Blog….Voted 5 Stars by Internet Traders Magazine

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Mike says:

isnt a small position in VXX a reasonable insure against a down market?? I mean LONG the market..but a small VXX is a good insurance policy is it not??

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The Fly says:

No, VXX is a flawed product. If you want a hedge, you’re better off with TZA or HDGE

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Mike says:

always learning something…..can you give me a brief reason (because I trust your opinion) why VXX is flawed??

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The Fly says:

Just look at the chart. I once lost $5 million in a VXX trade gone bad. I have vast experience in trading it and it never follows the VIX correctly.

You are better off outright short, than betting on a volatility event.

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tm says:

The actual reason that VXX doesn’t track VIX is because the VIX is not a tradable security, but rather just a calculation of SPX vol. The VXX buys VIX futures. When VIX futures are in contango, that is, when further out expirations are more costly, the VXX fund has to keep paying more when they roll each month (selling cheap and buying high). This has been written about extensively. Anyone who is still going to hold VXX anyway, for longer than a quick trade, should really consider booking the next flight to Oregon (one-way) to see Dr. K.

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ANNOUNCEMENT:

I’m picking up some $CROX when it breaches the $16 floor.

Any day now.

$CROX

Play Hard…Finish Strong! V.King 10:31

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bigpun2012 says:

fucking einhorn is retarded…People who eat Chipolte will switch to taco bell…REALLY? REALLY? Great thesis fuck tard!

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The Fly says:

I agree. But Einhorn is rarely wrong on his shorts.

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bigpun2012 says:

I agree I usually wouldnt ever think about going long any stock he shorts. He is a smart man but this thesis is soooo weak. The way CMG has been beat up lately makes me wanna strap on my helmet and buy a bunch.

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TraderCaddy says:

A day of divergences.
$$ to be made on days like this.
Just bought some etfs (to dump later as a daytrade).
SMH (chips),KRE regional banks),ITB (homies).
I believe the last 25 years of October have been so good is because at the end of the month there have been strong rallies off Sept-Oct crashes and downdrafts.

Reply

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