THE HOUSING RECOVERY IS HERE TO STAY.
I am sure many disagree, yet revenue growth says you’re a fucking liar.
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
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Oh damn, I bought HOV this morning.
Yep, I disagree. Since it’s recovered then I’m sure that the 15% decline in the value of my abode is just a fucking lie. I’m sure that since it’s a lie then I’ll have no problem breaking even despite what the market is telling me. Maybe builders are making out just fine but existing homeowners are still, mostly, in a world of shit. No lie.
As you scurry about to look at every single homebuilder EPS and Rev growth numbers, I will sit here waiting for your apology.
I scurry not and could give a shit about such things for I have little interest, or ability, to play in your world. To try to trade in and out of whims such as this would be my folly. You will have that bitch sold by next week anyway.
Pardon me. I actually do care about EPS and Rev numbers. Just in things that interest me when I try to invest, not trade, my limited funds.
How is extrapolating your experience out to the market in general going to get you anywhere? Housing will always be a regional, if not local market. Just because you bought an overpriced asset does not mean home prices haven’t bottomed.
Indeed. Nor does it mean they have.
“EPS and Rev growth numbers”
A game.
Only High End home builders will benifit….Those who have, will spend!
Start looking for relevant articles in local papers about home builders teaming up with property management firms that allow customers to turn their keys over to property managers for several years on the basis that they buy a home from one of their partner builders. This a new arena called “cloud real estate” and is very popular in the suburbs of Detroit and starting to gain some steam in the south. 30 year rates for borrowers with good credit will be sub 4 percent by end of this year. And the next wave of 3-5 million foreclosures in the US has yet to hit. So prices still have room to fall. If you are trying to sell today, you are likely sitting on losses and won’t be able to move. If you are buying today, no worries. Plenty of opportunities to come.
Otherwise, nobody is making money on real estate any more in the Midwest. That’s a given. Homebuilding is one of the lowest margin businesses now. But buyers always get emotional about real estate in general and overpay for homes. That’s why it’s important to have enough data to back up your offer when meeting with builders. Don’t let them get the best of you.
Fly, please ask your research director for Einhorn GM/Housing HF note. Please call me when you have talked to him. Thanks.
I would be nice if the ticker symbols popped out to a small screen with google finance summary on it.
We lie about disagreeing?
I sell real estate in CA near Carmel and our properties are still expensive but have gone down 35-40 percent since 2007. In Silicon Valley things are selling and have gone up some, BUT its still at these low prices from where they were. Most of my sales in the last year have been short sales. In the trenches, we see homeowners everyday that are still having a hard time. When you come from the upper middle class, you could have a more optomistic view of things since people with money, have money (obviously) and are isolated unless they work in the field. I also know a guy who owns a big sheet rock company and sold him and his wife a vacation home by the beach. They said their margins are paper thin and they do alot of sheet rock for commerical and residential construction sites in Silicon Valley. This guy is big and he and his wife had to buy a second home condo rather than their dream house on the beach (boo hoo.).
>the upper middle class, you could have a more optomistic view of things
Absolutely true,lower middle class has been crushed in home values, it was the market most overbuilt. Some lower middle class will not live to see their homes get back to where the Greenspan bubble placed them.
Carmel was s overpriced it wasn’t even funny when I lived there. 30-40% drop in prices is unsurprising considering the mostly tourist-related jobs and demographics of the outlying citiies (Marina, Seaside, Salinas). I won’t even talk about Pacific Grove where a houses without foundations were selling for $800k pre-bust.
Fly
U hit it right on the money 2012 is all about America
Yes home prices are up if you bought the right shacks.
Take note your real income is dropping like a rock in water