I’ve been betwixt regarding buying or selling after today’s melt up. As you know, The PPT flagged overbought on TZA two days ago, for the first time in months. Since then, TZA has knifed lower by more than 10%. There are some things happening in PPT that I’d rather not talk about here, just know there is a hard decision to be made and I did it.
Due to the nature of this rally, with breadth upwards of 85%, I’ve elected to hold onto my positions. The last time we had breadth like this, literally, was 12/20/11. Despite the LTRO melt up of early 2012, we never breached 85%, at least inside of The PPT. As you also know, 12/20 marked the beginning of that cocaine gorilla run to the upside.
So, we have the specter of EXTREME easing by both the ECB and Fed, coupled with a market that has been pissed on for 9 consecutive weeks. By selling here, I pretty much guarantee mediocrity, something I loathe more than anything else.
If you know how to read above a 5th grade level, you know that I haven’t waivered at all on my holdings. I’ve traveled to the fucking pit of hell itself with YELP, TEX, MTW and others, while lamenting over losses in a very public manner. I have no issues sharing my setbacks with you because your opinions mean nothing. It’s like a mouse chirping away at a lion. The lion doesn’t even look at the little cheese eating mouse, because he’s too busy planning to eat elephants.
We are going the fuck higher.
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Love the conviction Fly! Let’er rip!
Press the gas it is!
Looks like we took the S&P500 and Nasdaq right to the “200”. Liftoff from the average I suppose…
When Mitt “Gordon Gecko” Romney gets in , the 4 major banks will run wild. We will see an orgy of corruption, bribery, and shenanigans that will make the 2007 bubble look tame.
Im not saying that starts the next bull run to Dow 16k. But, it certainly puts a floor under all future XLF pullbacks. I just can’t see a catalyst for obama to recover his election chances here.
Actually, there is a good chance we fully price in Romney, between now and the time he takes the oath. Buy all pullbacks , especially in things like SLX EEM MOO DBA REMX etc
Gold and silver stocks lost a lot of ground after the beige book release. Why?
Not AG. I am mostly out.
Gold and Silver are early rotation plays. When the rally gets going, you need to rotate out.
Bounce wit me, bounce wit me, wit wit me wit me! *Jay-z Voice*
More like the Master P version, “We Bout Dat”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0d09UMV6qo
JayZ – Can I Get A…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWUfYobrbkI&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Nice post boss.
Alf is banned for making a horrid market call. I will wait for him to give his last words before execution.
He faded the 80 pt rally this morning. He’s had enough execution for one day.
Shorter than Vern…
For the record …
TMoe says:
June 6, 2012 at 12:44 pm
This rally will fade
Reply
alf44 says:
June 6, 2012 at 12:56 pm
… yep !
.
—
I didn’t “make a call” !
I agreed with another poster … who “made a call” !
—
If you would actually ban me for that … well … why would you even invite me back ?
And btw … if this ah hem … “Market” goes up again tomorrow … I’ll be gittin’ a bit SHORTER !
I’ve done absolutely nothing to warrant a ban ! Do what you gotta do, Fly !
.
Apparently, “Fake Amish” was right last night when he said to me “I was being set up” !
My apologies to him. I actually refused to believe that someone would stoop that low.
.
Would you like to double down?
All or nothing on tomorrow’s close?
If you lose, prison.
If you win, I will grant you 5,000 iBC Reserve notes.
I happen to remember the call at 9:50am…
Fade the gap
Trading 101
+1 … and I warned him about the impending fireworks just yesterday … tsk … tsk … tsk!
Well stick with this one, if the market tanks again don’t say well I told you it was going to tank.
Well stick with this one.
I just drove past some stinky road kill… geez that was a bear…
At least for today 🙂
Nice work Master Fly.
The lion sleeps tonight…
By the way I agree with you, we are still in uptrend on the weekly charts.
Very Don Draper-esque.
I just hope weak bulls will not sell the news when we actually get it
You’re at your best when the pedal is firmly against the metal and middle fingers are in the air.
Fly still the best
Cheers to rollin’
Church.
hmmm….how can you walk? You must have Golden Balls hanging! I’ll give you credit for perseverance….I respected the PPT history and scaled into $TZA. Sold my AAPL.
Good Luck!
qe? no qe? what will qe do? buy down morgage rates? the fed is affectivly at 0. qe is like heroin, the more u do the more u need till u OD…so we get a lift from qe. but then what? where will the qe (money ) go?
Who cares, get long.
I fucking love schoolboy q/
95% long still.
HOLY SHIT, you are all in!!!?? Do you look at charts or read headlines???
im all in too.
I’m with el Fly.
200+ days on a vix over 25 is a bear trap
200+ days on a vix under 25 is a drunk American at Pampalona.
all in plus … 135%!
This is the eye of the hurricane. I’ll be using this rally as an opportunity to build a storm shelter out of TZA and, possibly, TVIX.
nibble on tza, ? at the close i did it damn it, but just small, if we rally ill have more to buy,
I will be nibbling on TZA as $RUT approaches the 200-dma. $RUT 200-dma is about 4% higher from here. For every 1% $RUT goes up, TZA goes down 2.6%. So, about 10% lower from here on TZA is where I will start to scale in.
This equity rally / vol pullback is also, imho, the very last opportunity to get long vol before a big move up in $VIX. I am a buyer of TVIX below $8.
Should have written the 50-dma is 4% higher from here, no the 200-dma.
A game!
“not” not “no”!
A game some more.
heh heh heh can somebody show me how to loose money i still dont know how …..letting go of my long and keeping my short
actually im going to all cash i have to leave tomorrow and wont be back until tuesday …but for the record we going down thrus afternoon and all day friday
I called the 5% move by Fly and the bragging…nailed it.
Too bad it’s over by Friday.
And in case you don’t believe the call, check the posts here…
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2012/06/05/youre-permastupid/
and so it was written and came to pass ….nice one..your instincts are sharpening ..according to legends this will happen prior to end of days in dec.
Change your name to Zamzar the Great
Don’t be jealous.
+5.07% today with 22% cash
Congrats!
France will panic the markets next…skipping over Spain and Italy.
pussies all of them
outties
OEW Daily Musings:
“The market gapped up at the open for the first time since last Tuesday. Then the market was rallying into a B wave top. This time it looks more important. At today’s high the SPX hit 1315, 48 points from monday’s low at 1267. This is now the best rally since the decline began in early May at SPX 1415. The DOW also rallied to 200+ points, for its best advance since it was last in an uptrend. The downtrend may have bottomed.”
“The market is also providing an opportunity for an important broader observation. If one reviews the SPX hourly chart over the past few months. They will see a price high at SPX 1422, then a five wave decline: [1422] 1357-1415-1292-1335-1267. But if they review the DOW hourly chart they will observe only a three wave decline from its high: [13339] 12312-12611-12035. A five wave decline usually implies a bear market has begun. While a three wave decline implies only a correction within a bull market. The market will soon show which of these two is the most important index. We believe we already know the answer.”
Hint: Tony has been relying on the DJIA charts over the S&P charts since the last correction. We are beginning the Third Major Wave up of the Third Primary Wave up … This could be the meat of the entire cyclical bull market right here!