This isn’t about earnings or valuation. It’s not about trend lines or volume. Believe it or not, this isn’t about debt or rich balance sheets.
The market is about two things:
Computer driven liquidity pools and government and central bank intervention.
There are outliers and you can make money in niche plays, if they are well thought out and vetted. But, in general, the market is a giant convoy being directed like marionettes by people trying to maintain status quo.
I am not interested in making a difference or outthinking the great thinkers. It is what it is and I will continue to adjust by building my own tools (algorithms) and trading ahead of the interventionists. It is a never-ending process and correlations keep changing. We are getting “first time evers” on a regular basis. Being nimble and objective (no YELP) is the best course of action. And it needs to be practiced, not just preached (talking to myself).
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Dear Dr.
Are you still looking at VHC? I haven’t seen any mention lately.
My people are heavily long to the tune of 1 million shares.
To think about the time I was heavily invested once at ~$18 a share and paranoid about capitulation reveals my impetuous shit for brains.
Fly, who are your “people”? Your managed accounts, PPT members or “The Devil” (or all of the above)?
The Devil and friends
What profession would you like your children to go into if it is not financials?
Engineer. Scientist. Independent business owner.
I would say engineer as well. One close friend is bio-medical and other is chemical. Both recent grads (within 4 years) and doing well.
Software programmer too
What about accountant, doctor or lawyer?
You have to love solving problems, nonstop, else you get burned out. I’ve seen that happen a lot.
The deeper you go, the more rewarding it is. That is, if you’re into that sort of thing.
I’m a recent graduate in computer science. Graduated in ’09 when the job market was shit and had 0 trouble finding a job. Software is a wonderful field. You can pretty much pick to live anywhere you want and have no trouble finding a job.
My dad is a Nuke for Bechtel and he has worked himself retarded, even though he likes that, mid 60’s not retiring soon.
Rough. App/Web development has the ability to rob businesses for easy work.
Yeah instead of flying to Finland, Ukraine, Japan every other week at 63.
I’ve got rocket scientist’s in the blood (design – vis. – production); might I be so bold as to suggest obtaining life insurance NOW (before disqual. exemptions arise).
Most employees exposed to machinery die of cancer.
FWIW. Not intended as an insult (in any way).
all of those would be best
Like was said last night, what part of POMO is not understood. The EU needs more money to avoid apocalypse they will get more money.
I was driving and heard someone on Kudlow tonight saying Germany is playing brinksmanship but will blink and that Ger is more committed to the EU than most Americans think
good insight with the 12/20..thanks
i agree. fed intervention and qe will keep on making the market go higher..
…..until it doesnt. my god i fear the day that it doesnt. then were all fucked
Look at all that man has fucking built. Our ancestors used to run around hoop rolling for fun, shooting marbles in the dirt and shit.
We aren’t fucked until an asteroid hits us. Hopefully by then we are making it rain on Mars.
And if we take a hit on the economy, big deal. Just a minor setback in the whole scheme of things.
OEW Daily Musings:
“The market gapped up at the open for the first time since last Tuesday. Then the market was rallying into a B wave top. This time it looks more important. At today’s high the SPX hit 1315, 48 points from monday’s low at 1267. This is now the best rally since the decline began in early May at SPX 1415. The DOW also rallied to 200+ points, for its best advance since it was last in an uptrend. The downtrend may have bottomed.”
“The market is also providing an opportunity for an important broader observation. If one reviews the SPX hourly chart over the past few months. They will see a price high at SPX 1422, then a five wave decline: [1422] 1357-1415-1292-1335-1267. But if they review the DOW hourly chart they will observe only a three wave decline from its high: [13339] 12312-12611-12035. A five wave decline usually implies a bear market has begun. While a three wave decline implies only a correction within a bull market. The market will soon show which of these two is the most important index. We believe we already know the answer.”
Hint: Tony has been relying on the DJIA charts over the S&P charts since the last correction. We are beginning the Third Major Wave up of the Third Primary Wave up … This could be the meat of the entire cyclical bull market right here!
my fate is hinged to crude in a most diabolical way….sometimes i am an idiot.
My losses, which were (and really still are) massive, have been halved over the last few days. Sentiment says crude is going lower, but history of the last 3 years says buying oversold crude is the most surefire play in the market. Or close to it.
I will probably cave and sell out tomorrow, only to watch it cross back over 90 next week.
Fucking El Almeja had better deliver in a big way tomorrow. But i just know he’s going to disappoint. No one can live up to these expectations….
WTF! I thought you were hinged to GDX?
I made a terrible mistake.
Actually, i made a bunch of terrible mistakes, but each one seems to top the most recent one.
I still have a lot of miners, and they’ve been doing well, but I bought a frightening amount of UCO. I need to just sell it tomorrow before ben speaks, assuming there is some gain…R/R is not great here. I think my avg price is $30 or so.
I also do still have about 50% of my portfolio in a GDX clone…the worst fucking GDX clone in the world. Get a load of this chart:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VGPMX+Interactive#symbol=vgpmx;range=3m;compare=gdx;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
GDX has totally recovered from where i bought, meanwhile this HORRIFIC FUCKING CLONE has suddenly decided after 5 years to completely detach from miner-based reality.
Ahhhhhhh….anyway. That will come back into shape eventually. UCO, on the other-hand, is a ticking time-bomb that must be dealt with toute-suite.
You are out of control
“out of control”…meant as a warning or compliment Mr. Fly?
That fund can and does delve into base metals, and in doing so has badly lagged the gold space before. Might be happening again. I would use other funds to get GDX like exposure in the future.
“Investors are glorified gamblers, steered by emotions, delving into the deepest depths of depravity.” – Dr. Fly
Best post of the year.
My fate (ball sack) is tied to the momo anvils $PATK and $LQDT.
I’m in cash Amigos, besides that motherfucker ZSTN that I am short. This shit is ever changing, have to watch, learn, adapt and overcome (No Tim Sykes).
It is a casino. I am wondering if we get a sell the speech next time Ben speaks. Not because he won’t ease but because I just don’t see the market reacting the same way for the 1000th time in the last few years. Still I am long only right now.
Me and my sidekick the US Dollar are ready to fight the Clam tomorrow…Face Snapping may be a non issue if he follows his Girl Yellen. Yellen imho is saying that they can act if it get worse…and just like the WSJ article..they have the bullets and could use them if it gets worse. I am not reading that Twist gets extended or QE is coming…best part of Speech..In our policy deliberations at the upcoming FOMC meeting wewill assess the effects of these developments on the economic forecast.If the Committee were to judge that the recovery is unlikely to proceedat a satisfactory pace (for example, that the forecast entails little orno improvement in the labor market over the next few years), or that thedownside risks to the outlook had become sufficiently great, or thatinflation appeared to be in danger of declining notably below its 2percent objective, I am convinced that scope remains for the FOMC toprovide further policy accommodation either through its forward guidanceor through additional balance-sheet actions.
Investing is dead. It’s all about short term trading. This market constantly tries to shake out weak hands with propaganda. Pity.
Fly wins again. PB&J [sic] (PBOC) cuts rates. Nice call Dr.