A few months back I created a watchlist inside of The PPT and discussed the resurgence in housing, here on this very blog. I pointed to a group of stocks that were climbing higher and pondered “could this be it?” Back then I was invested in BZH, TEX, MTW, LPX, MAS, LEN and USG, truly ignoring the KARL’S of the world, executing trades for profit. But, like many things over the past year, I let a good idea get away from me and exchanged my shares for fear.
Let’s see how my fucking watchlist did since then.
There is momentum, no? Do my eyes deceive me or is USG and all of the homebuilders hitting new highs?
Housing may have bottomed. As a matter of fact, I am fairly certain it has bottomed, which is why I am swapping my house for another. All we need is the jobs market to firm up and we’ll have ourselves a fucking super-cycle in housing, offering boons to derivative plays.
Do not ignore what is right in front of your fucking faces. Get off your fat asses and hustle for something innovative. Find “the next one to go.” I realize the market is up a lot and we are overdue for a correction. But, let’s face it, this is a roaring bull market. I was stupid to sit on the fence for so long, watching all of the retards make money–as I sat sipping sugarless lemonade.
Well, it’s my turn now fuckfaces. My game starts now with TDC, YELP, CPST, RS, AKS, JWN, EXK and BID.
Oh, that’s not enough? I got a lotta more for you, fool (No Clubber Lang).
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Sure, you could base a housing recovery on the share prices of those companies affected by the housing market…
But in that context, we have a recovery in everything, AND MORE, no?
Meanwhile, the underlying data just does not support such a hypothesis
NO CHINA SLOWDOWN BECAUSE CHINESE BURRITOS ARE RUNNING
That’s not what the PMI says tonight.
Stocks always bottom before their economic sector in the real economy bottoms.
lol oh? What happened in ’08
In 08 housing was falling in the real economy and the XHB fell too– although it stayed up for a while, so the XHB’s fall lagged behind the fall of housing in the real economy.
I said nothing above about how housing and housing stocks decline. I was talking about how they rise.
Market and economy tops are formed differently than bottoms. One is not simply the opposite of the other.
Again, I said that when a sector in the real economy bottoms, the stocks of the sector bottom ahead of time.
Take a look at this little flashy thing right here….
POOF!
Your bullshit housing decline is GONE!
clubber lang. rofls.
you’re probably right about housing stocks, in the context of the by now familiar theme of “this rally is bullshit created by Bernanke interference but we might as well make some cash off it because there’s no way stocks will ever go down.” I don’t have the stomach or the cojones for housing here, but full respect to those who can make it work.
Real estate is not meant for most stock investors who want to be management free.
Gotta get some income and that requires management and shit, or time…
Bt if you can make it work and your are an entrepreneur bank the fuck out of it. Good time to buy a home or upgrade if you ever plan to though.
frustrated and I need a Kenny Powers vid. the fly show: asshat of the month Jan 2009 helped somewhat.
got to love Men in Black
One of these days I’d love to see Santelli going off about iBC, throwing things in the Chicago Exchange.
Delusional!
I hope you’re right Tropicana. I just bought a house this February.
Is this the housing bottom or just a lot of speculators buying 2nd properties and/or swapping out?
Rents are still very high. When the average family comes out in droves and tries to buy their 1st home. Housing will have bottomed.
Until then, might this not just be “free money” to home builders to build more properties?
I am still waiting for my 2% 15 year re-finance as “promised” to me by top blogger Scott Bleier right here on the PPT.
sold some wprt today.bot small pos in fdx fer the pop i hope.
But remember the Fed’s just settled their lawsuit with the big mortgage banks. I believe a 27B fine was levied and doled out to the states. (Isn’t it strange that the Gov’t can sue and win each time?) Essentially the settlement allows the banks to short sell all of their underwater houses. For instance Owner A is 100,000 underwater. The bank offers Owner A 30k to get out or get foreclosed. Owner A has no choice but to get out and take the 70k hit. This will flood the market with used houses. Ben’s idea is that these used homes will be fed out gradually into the market, but if I am a bank I want them off of the books NOW. We’ll see what happens.
The BANK is taking a bigger hit. They are giving up on their loan for $100K plus.
Owner A is ahead of the game. He is getting out of his $100K mortgage and a house he is
under water on.
And the owner will have extreme difficulty buying in the future assuming we learn from the previous bubble… oh wait…
If you don’t have 40% to put down, you should not be buying a house.
Too much shit with taxes, maintenance, utilities, etc.
so back a few months ago you were considering USG as a “buffet” play.. I jumped in at 9.75 and now it’s at 19.00.. now what? take the money and run? hold with a stop and keep riding the train?
FIG
Anyone watch $SEED today?
What a spike up….no I didn’t close at the top but I took a Jethro sized share of it
Fly, what is your take on the housing numbers regarding a 9.9% drop in single families and the 21% increase in multifamily (condo’s, townhomes, apts) with the thesis of a potential housing ‘bottom’?
Don’t know Fly’s take. But the smaller less expensive, e.g. multifamily, residences might rise first, as they are most easily affordable. Then the larger higher priced single family homes should start rising later, once the housing market is roaring loudly enough for the higher priced residences to start rising too.
My sediment as well Frog. Plus, add population differentials of baby boomers to gen x shows less space for aging population. That will change when Y starts to make serious income in a solid economy 10 years from now. That’s when expectation of single family residences will increase value. For now, it’s sparatic and only in certain areas.
Roaring bull market? yes sir
until mortgage money flows more freely, housing cannot recover; the average person still cannot get a conventional mortgage.
not only that,but usg has had the asbestos albatross lifted from them back in late 07 -08. my baby has been good to go for a wnr-longa for a bit now………fuckin calvery son.
Buddy bought a seaside condo on the west coast of Flahrida — on a whim — for $510k — a little under two years ago.
He just sold it for $800k this past weekend.
_____________________________
fuck florida
and get moldy termites up my dick?
The builders are being driven by high demand for multifamily, not individual markets.
The entire bloody town of Detroit will be for sale within about 6 weeks and that will bring housing prices down some more unless I am mistaken.
buy a block, just think of the manj you could grow,stunod!!!!!!!!!!!
Lol
Mpg my fav
We have weak recovery because housing is gonna suck for some time. The auto sector may be leading us out of the recession.
IMO autos can’t lead us out because they need more buyers which will come with a full recovery- self licking ice cream cone, if you will- I think energy exports (fuel not $olar, weak dollar) will lead us out- especially with the obama style slow down coming from Brasil
Auto industry is the next subprime haha
i can go away for a new gig,and my dltr will still kick yo azzz es……………..for the hundo roll, any momo now, sissies.
Wondering if that was you today with a buy of 604,700 share CPST @ $1.13 at 3:36 p.m. today? It sure made for a nice day.
Bernake hooks up the Fed to Twitter!
Cool, dude.
A little late, though.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixIz3-Tl7-w
today will be a buyin opp, get your list out.
What list? The only buys are the financials.
ARCO starting to look interesting…
Woulda, coulda, shoulda!
Tch Tch Tch
take a looksie at GMXR
Loved the video!! haha!!
Good weather tonight, heading out with my telescope and in between Jupiter and Mars I will be watching for a mysterious orbital canon with a man drinking tea next to it I thought I saw once.
if I sat out the market this long, I’d just wait for the correction.. buying stuff that’s already made their big moves…hmmm