Tired Bull

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There is a real divergence today, with banks in the shitter and tech ripping. However, trannies are weak, so don’t get all excited and shit about a late day rally. I can say with an enormous degree of certainty, the market will not reverse higher today.

See tech is stupid, trading on the whims of frivolous and gratuitous takeover rumors. The real tell is the banks. Look no further than JPM, BAC, MS and GS.

Instead of selling out of my VXX, I added to my position today. It was a small add, in an effort to reduce my cost basis. Make no mistake, we are due for a 3% pullback.

All of my other positions are performing admirably, putting me flat for the day. Yesterday’s purchases of OPEN and RFMD proved accurate–so far–trading up for the session. More importantly, my WNR is barely down. Trust me when I tell you, “the WNR” cannot be kept down for much longer. It is worth at least $25, if not more.

To be clear: if I thought a steep drop was imminent, I’d sell my longs. I am net long because the market is speaking to me. My next play will be to remove most of my longs in an effort to allow my 15% short exposure benefit from the coming drop in stocks. I will not up my short exposure to more than 25%. My future allocation will likely be 10% long, 25% short and 65% cash.

54 Responses to Tired Bull

Wall Street Protester says:

NEXT STOP THE FLYS CHOO CHOO! Time to get your legs broken, your drove America down to her knees & you will face the ultimate justice!

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The Fly says:

I will murder you where you stand!

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Andy says:

Your comment reminds me of the episode of Dr. Drew’s Celebrity Rehab where Amy Fisher’s husband Lou keeps threatening Jeremy Jackson “I’ll kill you where you stand motherfucker” Hilarious. Is that greeting unique to Long Island or a reference to a movie I am not familiar with? Thanks for a great site Fly.

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JDS says:

Making phsyical threats on someone’s blog? Are you out of your mind bro? Get a job and if you are not going to do that then at least try to obey the law. Great example you are setting – long live your cause dickhead

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The V.King says:

Told ya.

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Andy says:

The Nasdaq doesn’t count – lol. Good call V.King

Hey, why don’t you have your own tabbed blog on here….

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Jakegint says:

LOL.

Yeah, especially since he brings his own fan base with him?

;)

_______

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discoordinated says:

I am shocked that we are turning higher this lat in the afternoon. I kinda doubt the close is as strong.

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Frog Playing a Colorful Accordion says:

Wow. We’ve reversed lower again. So, at this moment, your blog post was right, Fly. You are right, even when it appears that you are wrong.

Of course we have such a ridiculous market that has seizures, so it could easily close 300 points up or down from here, as we’ve got 25 whole minutes.

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Apocalypse Now says:

Fly-

This is what has driven stocks up: Operation Twist: Look at the dates and amounts:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

Even the bond sale (balance sheet neutral) proceeds have been used for stock purchases.

In addition to this, I would like to see a source showing total puts or calls written at a level as the market makers work to push the market to levels that result in options expiring worthless.

Do you have a source or do you take this into account with the PPT score?

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Frog Playing a Colorful Accordion says:

Market makers working to push the market to levels that result in options expiring worthless– this happens sometimes and not other times.

Trading max option pain as a strategy would have worked out well in Sept. In August, it would have lost you your shirt, shoes, and pants.

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? says:

Ding! Ding! Ding!

I am So Sorry boys and boys. No winner today in our “Spin the Random Wheel and Guess the Dow” contest.

But remember to Try Again Tomorrow!

Be sure boys and boys to turn in your Why the Market Fucked Me Up Today essays. A winner will be Randomly Drawn weekly!

You could receive a FREE tour of the Zero Hedge corporate garage!

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