I have no idea if this is “the” bottom, but it has all the hallmarks. Big volume, whoosh lower, even I got scared out of the market. Luckily, right after the Obama meeting, the market rallied for a good 10 minutes. I used that spike to sell. My losses were still horrendous, so I have nothing to brag about just yet. Shortly after, the ECB deal was announced. Now, I could be wrong, but this sounds like QE1 for Europe. In other words, there is a better than average chance we DO NOT collapse on Monday. That’s what we are all scared about, right?
Having said that, our economy is still rocky. Maybe we get a little QE3 next week?
Who knows?
I went from 20% cash to 70%, back down to 30%. I will stay at these levels for at least another day. How absurd!
My core positions are EMN, WNR and DECK. I still own CLF and GSVC, but feel strongly about the other three.
How am I holding up, you ponder?
BAD. I fucking gave back 16% over the past two weeks, most lost over the past two days. Luckily, I was at all-time highs right before this shit storm hit. Nevertheless, the carrousel must continue to turn and the game needs to be played.
Upside to relief rally is +500 points.
Downside to collapse is -5,000 points.
Trade accordingly.
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I know you hate charts, but you might like this thought:
http://chart.ly/vsg2dmh
oh look, baby’s first chart. that trendline is ridiculous.
I look at them. I just fuck with you people. Shhh. don’t tell anyone.
would you be a seller if we get the 500 pt rally
That chart screams buy.
Going to grab some margin and start working the WNR in my account! Lets do this!
Fucking idiot loser.
“The Bottom is In…”
It’s about damn time!
Sorry.
Not enough pain and too much bravado.
1987 is still in my psyche.
I tend to agree. The shock and awe of that day is hard to forget. Though I as always hedge my bets a bit. Been nibbling a little here and there and am down to 45% non-equity. We will see. No bold moves, no predictions.
Wave after wave of selling …. never mind falling knives … I nearly drown that day from the waves.
I got it out of my head. I just think no more portfolio insurance, and we have circuit breakers. No more crashes. Oh wait…
I guarantee millions of people sold there entire portfolio right at the bottom.
This volume is absolutely insane!!!
It’s “their” not “there”.
Fly, what did you learn from WNR’s conference call and earnings release? I get that crack spreads have been at highs, but are they hedged now or not. Did they loose on hedges before the last conference calls and are they hedged now? What will this do to earnings if oil prices stay here? Oil prices go up? Thanks!
Here is a great DB note that sums it up.
Basis for the short-term investment idea:
WNR, released a shock headline 20% dilution on a surprise convert trigger yesterday, contributing to the stock falling 23%. However, underlying operational performance was strong and the seemingly negatively perceived locking in through hedging of around 35% of production for the next 3 years at $27 distillate cracks – well above our forecasts, is a positive for debt paydown, which is the investment case.
Catalysts:
Continued strong Mid Con margins and operational performance. The company’s major refinery El Paso is a WTI user, making this a direct play on the Brent WTI spread. That spread has been at record wides, but held in yesterday’s market meltdown.
Risks to the short-term investment idea:
If there is an operational upset at the companies biggest asset, El Paso would be a direct negative.
Long-Term Fundamental Rating: Buy
WNR’s dirt cheap right now, and it’s hard as fuck for me not to buy back in today, but I opted to pick up some HFC instead. They may not have the Eagle Ford advantage, but they’re still a pure WTI play, have a great deal of refining capacity, and better management. I know I’m not going to get quite the same potential for upside here, but I can count on their management to at least beat earnings in the most favorable environment refiners are ever going to see and be a less volatile play on the oil crack spreads. I just can’t handle WNR’s volatility in this market.
(Please don’t misconstrue this as trying to give you advice, I’m not that stupid)
What the fuck are they talking about??
Here’s the exact text from the 8-k regarding the convertibles:
Western Refining, Inc.’s (the “Company”) 5.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2014 (the “Notes”) will be convertible, at the option of the holder, during the period commencing on, and including, April 1, 2011, and ending on, and including, June 30, 2011. The conversion right was triggered on March 17, 2011, when the last reported sale price of the Company’s common stock exceeded $14.04 for the twentieth day in the thirty consecutive trading day period ending on the last trading day of the calendar quarter (which thirty day period will end on March 31, 2011). If any Notes are surrendered for conversion, the Company may elect to satisfy its obligations upon conversion through the delivery of shares of its common stock, in cash or a combination thereof.
An operational upset? Like this … ???
http://www.businessinsider.com/huge-explosion-at-memphis-valero-refinery-2011-8
http://townhall.com/political-cartoons/2011/08/04/90460
Here is the logic. Take ur speculative gold money profits into the stock market. QE1 for Europe since america and europe are in this together. Both mob criminals. that means buy this market new highs coming this year as soon as QE3 is announced. Or a push of yields down on the treasury by the FED driving longer term rates higher as the yield has to go somewhere
No doubt, barring all the macro shit (which you can’t) WNR looks like a no-brainer here. Could go from limp to completely erect in 2 days. NOW I like it (where I didn’t before).
ok my last message was chopped and screwed
In a nut shell,
Europe and America are the nwo master minds. We are fighting China the enemy who wants to control things like a ninja. Policies need to be changed and until we start doing the right thing, markets go higher because of men who keep doing the wrong thing.
This is why I will never vote for you.
bloomberg showed men of great scholar wearing nicely buttoned down shirts talking about buying names like WMT. That means the bottom is in. Wen these guys who are like cavemen come out of hiding because they are hungry then u kno, u kno
you can have wmt
Knocked this whole move right out of the park…proceed to vote me down as it brings glorious pleasure.
Every intraday chart of every stock is identical today…tells you they are controlled by the machines.
Global macro trading has ruled the market for quite some time now.
You can say that AGAIN!
The bottom is in?
Good God…
Rick Ross indicator is flashing.
After watching the swoosh lower (wow what a V bottom) and then things starting to look stable, I stuck my toe in the water with a little WNR. Not fully committed to this, but will hold this one for a while unless things go apeshit again where I will likely head to the sidelines. If the shit gets sorted over the weekend, early next week, I will put all cash to work.
GLTA,
-HDDB
Now all we need over the weekend is France, Germany Spain Italy Finland Ireland etc…… to agree on another bailout…..
Have you heard of the proverbial snowball in hell?
Are you saying market top for the year is in?
+500 is all we get in relief rally?
Thanks Fly!
Yup
I know you’re mostly family folks, but I’m getting some strange this weekend to clear my mind.
Just check her facebook page. If Eliot Spitzer had seen the guys he was sharing dick space with, he probably would have backed off that ass. Ashley Alexandra Dupre had all sorts of gangsta action up in her ladybits.
I cannot say how much I respect the contributors to this site. It must be, and by a huge margin, the best trading blog/site extant. Wins, losses, and no cover ups presented for all the world to see. And an outstanding diversity of contributors. I may subscribe to each service offered later today, the only downside being I am unlikely to actually use them.
I hope WNR hits a new high later this year so that egregious gloating can occur.
If only some of you guys would read up on Modern Monetary Theory so as to be able to more accurately comment on budget and economic events, that’d seal the deal.
Checklist, there’s a wide disconnect between market actions and reality as described by the MMT. The majority of comments and actions is as though we’re living in the Golden Standard era. This creates huge “knowledge arbitrage” opportunities. One such is the (hyper)inflationary expectations, which we know are (almost) groundless in the current situation. Just stop beseeching for macroeconomic literacy and trade accordingly. Anyway it falls on deaf ears.
Doubling down on put protection.
500:5000
Looks like a very favorable risk/reward, eh?
Shouldn’t the European QE cause the Dollar to rally against the Euro?
Isn’t that exactly what most bulls don’t want?
It’s a race to the bottom. The Euro-zone is even worse off than we are. Germany is the California of Europe. They are going to get nailed to the cross trying to save the day.
you know wats worse than having cash? missing the snap back rally u foooooolllsss!!!!
Guess it’s the right time for Mr. Ron Paul to contribute to the budget balancing and exchange his paycheck for a favor of honorable retirement.
Brace for the “no one wants to be long into the weekend” carnage. Should be taking off any minute now.
As a long term investor, I used today to add to my dividend paying retirement portfolio. There are some nice yields out there.
They will be better in the fall, no?
OTM FXI puts almost doubled today…
Cannot remember his name but the pit guy on cnbc said he felt this price action was more severe than lehman folding
i suppose entire nations going bankrupt is not pleasant
fuck my on a raft
Listen to Cramer, 500 pts is bad but not a disaster.
This market may continue heading south for awhile. Buy on way down.
Time to load up on CSCO.
TLT starting to look like the SPY yesterday.
we need another flash crash right about now.
60 or so sp points would be optimal
ball squeezer into the close then sp downgrade and 150 point flash crash LOL
Sorry to hear about the hard week M. Fly.
I know how that goes. “From the scowering highs to notorious lows, I roam through hell’s weighs/ways (on)to (the) high roads.” DevilDriver.
I, too be candid, am amazed Ross’ barbour doesn’t take a misdemeanor on the the hair cut for mag. deal$.
A wrecked Mayback would be a nice vicarious liability action too for all those minor ball cap-homies working below intern-pistachio misdemeanor plea-bargains’ stati! RFLOL.
Hail from NY!!! To Boston. Yankees 4 life, UNLESS v. )my underdog Mets.