The rally has been stymied and the volume is bone shattering. I am glad the week is over, as it marked nothing but brutality and carnage for me. If the ECB is going to start monetizing their debt, well, that’s bullish for gold. Silver is too fucking retarded.
The market crash we were all hoping to avoid may be off the table, if a deal is done. If not, we’re fucked.
The action in the Nasdaq is flat out dreadful, with horrifying declines in anything tech. At the moment, fundamentals do not matter. Best case scenario, ECB does a deal and QE3 is announced, leading to a “skull-fucking rally”, erasing the faces of the bears who pressed their luck. Worst case scenario, S&P downgrades America, ECB does nothing and Bernanke gives a speech about beards. Under that scenario, we drop 1,000 points next week.
I could not be more disappointed with my performance this week. I had the answers to the exam and forget to bring them when the test was given. I failed and feel terrible for those of you who bought stocks due to my commentary. My apologies.
Over the weekend, I am going for dinner and drinks and will be keeping a close eye on the news.
Top picks: EMN, WNR and DECK
Le Fly, M.D.
Yesterday, I felt like my cock got ripped out.
We fight for another day
We will make it back.
I’m sorry I had to rape everyone this week
When you say “drinks” does that mean wine?
Mr. Fly, you have changed a lot in the year or so I’ve not been around here.
You’re right, I really have.
Yes Marc, wine.
Was it the heart scare?
No. Just a greater awareness of my health. Perhaps it’s age catching up with my testosterone levels.
Or wisdom… humility… compassion…
I like new you!
Me too. God bless.
now eat your peas!! WNR long and stro…………..errrrrrrrrr….keep buying!!
Thank you for being here during weeks like this. You and your team provide quite a service.
Back to alcohol Le Maestro? I hope the stress of the week isn’t effecting your discipline.
I haven’t had a drink or alcohol in two months.
Well, I had one or two drinks, but no coffee.
A little Wine is good for the ticker.
It even says that in the Bible……
Now I know what a puppet feels like.
Do not apologize, or feel terrrible, Good Sir, for you are a Prince among men………………
Today felt like capitulation day, but anything’s possible…
Well everybody who bought the stocks before earnings indeed should bite their own cock off and declare himself invalid! Is that not obvious that now the game is not on earnings beat! How many of em before this “crash” actually rally BIG? Or more obviously how many fell BIG for a penny miss or weak guidance? Does this mean anything? One thing though if as fly notes if QE3 and EU sorts out the bear families would be raped mercilessly (including the ghosts great grandmas ghost!)
My engrish is rusty.
Nothing to apologize for Fly. Absolutely nothing. Everyone here a big boy, does their own DD, makes their own decisions, and takes responsibility. How do I know this? Some little elfish fucker told me. His name tag: Jean-Claude Trichet.
Posted today on Twitter:
#myeconomy Used computers for sale, used in stock trading. Stomped all over by Italians,Greeks,Irish,Portuguese, and Spaniards. #worthless
#myeconomy Anyone need a securities trading turret? The ECB pissed all over mine. It no longer has positive equity. #worthless
#myeconomy Testicles – gone. To raise cash, sold them to Chinese ball bearing company. I did have balls of steel, back in the day. #formerBSD
#myeconomy Can’t see. To raise cash, sold my eyeballs to the little kid next door to use in a marble tournament. Loving that Republican austerity.
#myeconomy Have no pot to piss in. It was metal. Sold it to a Chinese metal scrap dealer to meet margin calls.
#myeconomy Cancelled all plans to eat for the rest of my life. #FuckingStockMarket
Hey Fly,
No need to feel sorry. You have been a “Straight A Student” prior to this test. Everyone has a bad day.
I, for one, appreciate all the work and guidance you provide.
Have a good weekend!
le fly-we will make it back…no worries
I take money management very seriously and it would be beneath me if I didn’t express how awful I feel about having WNR’s across the internet castrated because of me.
Hopefully it was just trimming FTK gains for most. WNR should have nailed it, and might yet.
Besides, anyone playing with stocks is comfortable with risk.
Anyone who rolled with it because of you should have had a stop in place. Stopping out for a $1-$2 loss stings. But better than the pain that followed. If they didn’t have a stop, then they should be holding it with long-term confidence and not lose sleep over it.
^^this.
Mine saved me at 19.20 but I’ll be cautious before opening any new positions in refiners. Between WNR hedging and ALJ going thru the flooded Krotz I haven’t made any coin on the sector, just my bad timing.
Have a good weekend Fly, and get that time machine outta the shop, asap! lol
I bot more today in the mid 14’s.
_________
just fwiw, i think it is the honesty of IBC, the pain and frustration and regret expressed by the traders and pros here that will ultimately benefit your readers the most.
if they intend to become traders, seeing that you guys are not perfect and that the market doesn’t have to listen to you will ultimately be worth more to them than believing you guys are some beacons of perfection in this mad world.
And that doesn’t count how bad the feelings are among the new internet nutless. Not to mention their wives, friends, partners, their wives’ partners, friends of the family and former friends who are now so numerous as to create a census by themselves.
There are plenty of people who are buying it for the first time or buying it back because of you. Regardless of gay price action, you turned us on to a killer story that had bad news hit at a very bad time. We got hit by the fabulously gay perfect storm.
ha!
I feel like the only girl at the bukkake party
Just do what analysts on Wall St. do when they blow a call…blame investment banking.
Grrrrrr……
________
Fly, please note that your positions always came with disclaimers. While I took a beating holding XIV, WNR, VXX puts and a plethora of bull losers in the past few days, not once did I think to curse your name. Besides, there’s been a plenty of winships in the past. It’s not like you had fold up shop and left town… you are here giving us the strategy to get out of this mess.
It actually is a privilege that such expert as yourself is willing to disclose his positions to us internet leeches, for free and for such miniscule price.
screw these jackasses, the fly i’ve come to know ALWAYS wins.
No pressure FLY…..just merely guide us out of this mess…
Fly,
Don’t sweat it. We’ve leeched plenty of winners off of you over the years, a small setback like this is nothing.
Soon we’ll be eating ribeyes again, heavily salted, lightly peppered.
well because of you I bought wnr today at the bottom(?). otherwise I wouldn’t have known about the stock.
http://f1.grp.yahoofs.com/v1/sD08TjrfVUBdrReMW0b3Flx6mOwGA4N1_b5rs5moKQBLnBmgTmcVCZTNv4795EmOAiLoXWmi5xbNgObOjh1ujol9YAmyRBFB/July%2030%2C%202011
Let the wine flow, for it brings health and vigor.
Long time listener, first time caller. Mr. Fly, all I can say is if you ain’t been whipsawed then you ain’t been around very long. You are a straight up dude , dude.
Why do I have this overwhelming urge to stab Herb Greenburg in the face with a salad fork?
lost it on …speech about beards. I’d be willing to take the hit just to see the clam do that.
Enjoy the weekend Fly. See you Sunday night.
a good post Fly, whether you care or not we are all on your side
a speech about beards…hilarious
Fly … go buy yourself a Powerball ticket !
$180 Million would go a long way toward soothing your bruised psyche !
Hey, can’t win if you don’t play !
Have a good weekend !
.
Buying a ticket makes about as much sense as the Market does right now.
screw this tape and everything about it. i gave back 1/2 my gains this f*ing week but am gonna stay in cash for now and wait for a high probability trade and then pounce. i’m really surprised you bought more today…. good weekend all.
Giminy Fly – I have been around the markets a long time. You have been on a excellent streak for the several months i have followed you. EVERYONE in the biz we’re in got de-shomped by this week. Keep the work up. It is very valuable. We bes over 21.
thanks
You are more than welcome. Keep the Faith.
i’m sure your luck will turn around again. hope you have a good weekend.
Hey Fly
You’ll be back “WINNING” like Charlie Sheen in no time. We all get humbled by the markets. I have had my share.
Your honesty and passion for the game is what keeps people coming back here. That and your also funnier than shit.
I have a lot of respect for you man despite our differences at times as to where the market is headed.
Put on your top hat tonight, grill up an 1-1/4″ rib eye and wash it down with a nice glass of red wine from one of the several $1000.00 bottles that sit in your wine cellar.
Lost in the shuffle was Brocades warning for the Q
… Brocade anticipates that it will generate quarterly revenue in the range of $500 million to $505 million, representing flat revenue year-over-year, and expected diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.08 to $0.09 on a non-GAAP basis. The company’s previous guidance for the third quarter was $540 million to $560 million for revenue and $0.10 to $0.11 for non-GAAP EPS.
Brocade anticipates that it will report $333 million to $336 million in revenue for its Storage business, including product and services, which is down 5% to 6% year-over-year. The lower revenue range for Storage reflects a reduction in the third quarter of approximately one-half week of Fibre Channel inventory held at the OEMs. In addition, the company experienced weaker-than-expected Storage end-user demand, which was down slightly from the previous quarter
You can see all their OEM partners here http://www.brocade.com/partnerships/oems/oem_partners_list.page
All stops were taken out today. All charts look the same- a 5 or 10 day collapse to 20-30% below
the moving averages. Ski slopes down. Look at some charts and you will wish you were
long as of today’s close. KSU and BAC are typical.
Your credibility jumped 200% this week.
Your trading and attitude is among my most valued resources. The Fly and Steven Place are my 2 mentors.
Continued good health and good trading.
I went 95% long WNR calls, TZA puts and VXX puts… Could have picked a worse time? I think not. Lesson learned I guess, time decay sucks. I would be happy with WNR cost at 20… But instead I have worthless august options…
If you did all that when the market was down 200 today, you will soon be a very rich man.
Best headlins of the day from Marketwatch
>>>>Dollar falls on reports ECB to buy Italian debt
Facebook and the idiots at Groupon have now missed their IPO window. Maybe next year for FB at some post G+ valuation and Groupon is now the Webvan of 2011.
Per CNBC: US government preparing for S&P downgrade. Holy Shit!!!
Doesn’t mean shit. Bond yields are at all-time lows. So what if they go up a half point?
All that does is create MORE demand for USA debt.
better yet, the extra money need to find a home.
Unless of course you are required to hold triple AAA
Damn, can we have a little respite??? You know, to clean up the street from all the dead bodies.
It means you should kill them all…
http://youtu.be/NgPC74-Tde8?t=1m24s
You will come back big time. Remember you said “The Fly wins again, even when it appears he is in the process of losing badly.”
Fly,
I respect that you continue to blog while you are managing money, when the market is crashing.. which I can not even imagine how stressful it’s been for you this week. You put things in a real perspective, it’s just paper, with funny faces printed on them. That is great! I hope for all of us, next week will be a better week.
Wow, a blogger that apologizes for his mistakes – now I’ve seen everything!
I think Monday should be better. The big boys will have the weekend to figure out the right things to say to calm some of the panic and people will start to see this as an opportunity to buy low.
You pulled a Jesse Livermore. Lost it all, gained it back, lost it all… repeat x 4.
The greatest trader that ever lived.
Died with $0.02 in his pocket.
“Traders die broke”
An old famous saying on Wall St. We are all sick puppies in attempting to play this game.
I said to myself I’m not adding any positions on a Friday like this,but then I saw Alcoa trading @ $12.38,and my hands banged out a buy order, I had no control over them.
Trading is like being an actor or an artist. The folklore may say everyone is a wreck in that line of work, and of course some people are.
But it’s perfectly possible to be quite healthy, discipline, and successful doing it too. There are many ways to do it. Fly puts a huge amount of effort and discipline into it, and he has a huge amount of talent, which makes a lot of difference.
And Fly is honest with himself and others about what it is like to be in this line of work– which is also important. Because people who bs themselves and others about what is going on, create unnecessary roadblocks in the way of their success.
The Edge, if you really think this is what is happening to you, then have someone else manage your money, or stay out of the market and just make your money in other ways. No reason to die broke or deprive yourself of money unnecessarily. Trading is not for everyone. In fact, it is likely not for most people who try it.
Frog
I am a bear.
I just had the best two weeks of my trading career. Being on the short side can be very painful but when things finally slip it’s very rewarding.
The key for me is being patient on the sidelines when things are completely ridiculous on the bull side.
I have learned a lot since being raped in 2009.
frog, pretty much have to have the stomach for it.taking a howitzer to the face unexpectedly is another thing.
Thanks Fly. Dinner and drinks sounds nice. I am planning to do the same. Actually, I started drinking again this week. I too have not been drinking since the first week of June. But this week, I seriously fell off that wagon. Go figure.
Hey Wife – I also started drinking again this week but it had been one year for me without alcohol. I am starting a new streak tomorrow. Time for me to start buying stocks again.
Are you guys in programs or was this just a random discipline issue?
___________
No program here. Just the realization that alcohol does not contribute positively to my health and well-being.
I Drink; Therefore I am
http://youtu.be/NeG2aSGDhao
The Fly has never made me a dime and I walk alone! On the other hand, he’s never lost me a dime either…I do enjoy the jumbled, sarcastic, and clearly bi-polar commentary. Its fucking hilarious and insightful if one can separate wheat from chaff. REGROUP FLY! You have important dick blogger responsibilities my old friend from the internets.
Too little too late for the ECB fags to start buying Italian bonds. Now, those bearshitters are going to target Spain.
No need to apologize. We all know what the stakes are. Actually if I had sold my DECK long position when you did I would have made stupid Serious money instead of just pretty good money. I like what you said about fundamentals too. DECK has great fundamentals. I noticed it is on your top picks…does that mean you are back in it? Or are you just watching and waiting?
Sorry just read your tweets and saw that you did. I am still holding Sept. calls from around 79. Really sucks that I did not follow your lead on this one. I could have/would have bought again at this level. Oh well live to trade another day. I haven’t lost anything….I just haven’t gained as much as I thought I did………….YET!
Like the Fly,debt ceiling circus took my mind to worthless waste of time thinking. Throw in the VIX actually declining hard for a few days and I might as well have been handing $1000 bills to tamborine banging moonies at the airport all week.
Every person is responsible for their own trading results. Fly’s commentary is just that–each of us pull the trigger ourselves under our own direction. Kudos to Le Fly for performing his magic in front of the rest of us pikers, wins, losses and all.
Never mind your patronizing kudos Fly reference, your first sentence is 100% right on. Someone, please, pay attention to that.
I’ll patronize you
Fly wins again…… It’s all here in the comments. “Beard trimming techniques”? Bernanke specializes in eye brow gap
‘I failed and feel terrible for those of you who bought stocks due to my commentary. My apologies.”
I’ll take your win/loss record any day.
im back with new stuf in my brains,went to the sand bar w/ family gave me a new perspective on the market, my neice flew in from pr, family from cal, and the best of things r to come, we difenitly r in a new mkt, time to reshuffel r thoughts, its now clear ression is in question, i think yes, but for now ,,,
Sold all TZA at the close yesterday and went long QQQ Sept. calls today…we shall see!
Any reason why you like WNR over CVI?
After the shock of watching accounts blow up… its time to focus and start hitting singles and doubles. Right now all cash is feeling ok.
It’s official per Reuters
S&P downgrades USA to AA.
Wonder what the fall out of this will be. Unintended consequences anyone?
Sad day
pm’s get shiney
WNR looked like a hedge fund dump today taking it all the way down to 13.27 …
This is not good news. It was bound to happen. Our debt is less attractive, and there will be a higher cost to borrow.
3 places to flee to immediately
EDC emerging market stocks
CEW emerging market currencies
CYB chinese Yuan
Already in EDC , but , plan to rotate into CEW and CYB , following this downgrade news.
I would humbly disagree.
Even as messed up as our government is right now, the USA is still by far the most stable country on the planet.
just sayin…………………..China?
panama,cyb has been the talk for a year now, and the other side of the globe have been setting it up. russia and a whole host of others want it. you can go into a chinese bank here in the states and buy the yuan now. buy it for a few cents now,in the next five years then cash in.
This downgrade is bullshit. I don’t know what kind of behind the scenes politics are being played with the ratings but someday the real story is going to come out.
There must have been all sorts of threats and counter-threats before this happened. That they went ahead with the downgrade says there are some really incompetent people in the government. The downgrade could be a reaction to attempts by the current administration to strongarm or a reaction to apparent administration weakness.
In any case, ratings are rarely based on numbers and analysis alone. There is a major political aspect to how and when they’re given. To give the downgrade now, at this particular time, is madness. There’s no reason they could not have waited six months or a year.
The ratings agencies are a joke anyways (e.g. all the AAA traunches that ended up worthless, downgrading Enron about a day before they declare BK, etc.). Now the government should absolutely gut them.
This downgrade could’ve explained the crap week we had too. This news being leaked days ago would explain a lot.
So this would explain the bullshit happening the last few days. Its obvious now that they leaked this.
“As for you: don’t follow me into Hades, unless you can handle it. This is a high risk venture that may lead to the immediate removal of my limbs, leaving “The Fly” stubbed on the curb with just a torso.” sayeth the Fly. I also remember the post about…”I have seen the future and is has lower stock prices” or something like that.
It was very clear to me that you knew you were gambling, and I’m a retard!
You owe no apologies.
Look at FUN up 7% after hours on a Cramer recco. This man moves markets….
SEC loves to go after the small time guys for insider trading. Is there going to be an investigation into S&P leaking this news? Of course not, because it would involve going against the biggest houses on Wall Street.
Fly got shafted here as did all outsiders.
Conspiracy theory would be the government assented to the leak as that way this move down took place over a couple of weeks instead of one day. If the cost is that non-insiders got their accounts creamed, the powers that be may have judged that an acceptable price to pay.
When we rally on Monday (presumably), it’ll be so damn obvious this had already been priced into the market. Complete bullshit.
What does it all mean? It means we’re all FUCKED. Those S&P pussies actually did it.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/06/us-usa-debt-downgrade-view-idUSTRE77504J20110806
BOOM.
Get ready to “Do the Hugh”. btw Thanks to Le Fly for the flattering neologism
What does this mean for the market on Monday?
longer term yes, but i am buying the gap down. I have to believe it is priced in now since apparently everyone knew about this besides me.
This was the biggest loss in many years. Too stressed to even get cocktailed up. I broke every trading rule this week and freaking lost almost half of the portfolio. It would be lovely to be able to blame you Flydude yet most of the “ingenious” trades were done on all on my own. I am embarrassed and humiliated and now the S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating for the first time in history. Monday fun day, ugh…….
Are we talking the market taking a shit, a bad shit or the mother of all shits on Monday?
We”re talking terminal diarrhea.
Everyone should be out getting trashed tonight . I am about too.
Our way of life is being taken from us. I think I need a couple of scotches in a dark room by myself to soak this in.
It’s way beyond bad.
Fuck that. It’s about the supply, folks.
It’s always about the supply.
Cheer up.
__________
I agree in theory Jake but Mr. Market hasn’t spoken yet. The bond market is not going to be happy. They are already trying to put some lipstick on this pig on Bloomberg.
Mainly in cash and happy because I have no freakin clue what happens to interest rates, our currency, or the stock market.
The ramifications are devestating. Japan got cut in the 90’s to AA and stocks dropped 75%.
Shit, maybe we are fucked afterall. I think 10800-11000 support range of upward channel holds In monthly chart but if not, next stop is 6000…
a-hemm 6001,
We Never Did Re-Test the S&P 666 Low….
People… Downgrade means nothing, really. US dollar still reserve currency. No other place to go if you are a central bank with trillions to protect and move into largest most liquid markets.
However, long term I am concerned for us dollar. This may serve as a political point at Various global political meetings and there may be more crying to remove dollar as reserve currency. Or fears of such. Government is the one in trouble, not US companies. No telling how long people keep bidding up bonds, but perhaps in hindsight this will prove to be a turning point for treasuries.
Much lower? What more of an event do you need to get the maximum amount of people bearish? How much more bearish are people going to get then they are now? Those are the ideal conditions to buy? No? The definition of contrarian investing. I suppose some people could get flushed out of margin requirements and we could have a waterfall empire collapse but do you really think the S&P really has the power to collapse a nation? Would you rather buy when everyone and his mother are selling, or buying?
Fly, hope you can bounce back. I, for one, appreciate your blatent honesty. Refreshing. The cream always rises to the top.
“Worst case scenario, S&P downgrades America, ECB does nothing and Bernanke gives a speech about beards. Under that scenario, we drop 1,000 points next week.”
Part 1, check!
double rainbow.
Not sure what to think about this kinder gentler fly. Maybe he’s molting. Wait, do flies molt?
The downgrade will mean Fuck-All!
Man-up and buy the dip pussies!
I was graciously introduced to an old Igorot lady outside of Sagada who had the ends of her fingers cut off. I asked my NPA communist guerrilla guide what was the deal. He said her hands were wrapped around her mothers neck when her head was taken by local headhunters.
…and they had a knack for jewelry http://www.amazon.com/IFUGAO-HEADHUNTERS-CHARM-C1850/dp/B004NPUNIM
As DEVILDOG would say, DOW 1,000 HERE WE COME
I really wished I would have gotten to meet Devildog….we seem to have a lot in common.
After 4 Martinis last night I came to the same conclusion.
I hope I am wrong.
No telling what’s been priced in and what hasn’t ’til the market opens on Mon. The market has rallied on priced-in bad news before, and fallen on good news before. We just have to wait and see.
I agree with the person who quoted Fly above:
“As for you: don’t follow me into Hades, unless you can handle it. This is a high risk venture that may lead to the immediate removal of my limbs, leaving “The Fly” stubbed on the curb with just a torso.” sayeth the Fly.
Certainly Fly, you could not have been more clear about the risks being taken by you, and by anyone following you.
I am touched by your compassion for folks who lost money. And I hope that, if you feel guilt, you will find ways to release it and let go of it. Because you certainly deserve to feel only pride about honestly posting your experience as a trader. As you said in your RAMPED story, the market can at times be a diabolical machine. If you gave new traders the idea that the market could NOT be a diabolical machine, that would be entirely unrealistic.
Some say that to be too successful too soon is the worst thing that can happen to a new trader– as they are then more likely to carelessly gamble, thinking they will always win. And the best thing that can happen to a new trader is perhaps days like Thursday. Because it teaches a person respect for the market for what it acutally is, rather than for what folks may want it to be.
Well let’s look at it this way. If they didn’t think it was a big deal they could have announced it during market hours or during the week at least. But they went with the “Fuck you, contemplate this shit over an entire weekend” route. Usually that’s not good.
Gentlemen, prepare to witness a 4 year extension of our bull market fueled by skepticism, doubt, and clam money from every country on earth. Prepare yourselves accordingly or don your burlap sacks and get your excuses ready.
Some folks mentioned on another board that Japan was downgraded some years ago and that they still pay almost nothing to borrow money.
I mean, if folks don’t want U.S. debt/bonds, where are they going to go for safety? Greek or Spanish or Italian bonds? Hardly.
There is plenty of money sloshing around looking for a safe home, and not many safe homes for it to go to. I read that 1 month T bills at one point this week actually paid negative interest, before they rose back up to zero interest. That is, people were paying the U.S. governent to hold their money for them. That’s how much money is sloshing around, looking for a safe home in some kind of bond. U.S. Treasuries look darn good, compared to many other choices.
I actually think it’s psychological and nothing more. It’s not as though people will suddenly become aware US finances are ratshit. This kind of puts an official tag to it.
The market will open down big on Monday and then we shall see. If the Bond market shrugs it off equities will too.
He’s the most amusing thing about these markets. If equities take a trouncing as most people think they will, bond prices will rise or stay where they are. In actually fact equities and corporate bonds ought the treated with more respect than they will be.
I’m holding and waiting and seeing. I have 50% cash but I’m not going to gamble that. While I sit on my hands in this market, I’m going to go work for a paycheck again which I haven’t had to do for a couple of years now.
About a third of my portfolio is in Fly-advised stocks. I agreed with his reasons for investing in them and we shall see long-term. Looks like I’m becoming an ‘investor’ rather than ‘trader’ in this market.
Bad Religion- We’re Only Gonna Die (From Our Own Arrogance)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAPNNUqFy14
What does it mean?
Well this pretty much sums it up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4hfd…ature=youtu.be
Hey…………..we might as well laugh about it..:)
All y’all have a good weekend with your families. Seriously!
Try this one. Freakin hilarious
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4hfdaC7eL4&feature=youtu.be
Does anyone else feel like the game is rigged? Apparently the market knew this was happening, thats why we had the 500 pt. drop last week. How the fuck is an average investor supposed to make a dollar when there is back room game rigging happening? Such bullshit.
funny u should say that, i got out before this happened, i listened to the numbers, but didnt think it would of been this bad, so i got lucky, but it would seem someone knew something,
Just follow the tape as was noticed almost a hundred years ago: “The Tape Reader does not care whether a move is made by a manipulator, a group of floor traders, the public or a combination of all. The figures on the tape represent the consensus of opinion, the effect of manipulation and the supply and demand, all combined. That is why tape indications are more reliable than what anyone hears, knows or thinks.”
t-bird is that you
Financial warfare sucks when you are losing.
im thinkin gold will rally, should i short, i didnt think we would get this downgrade, i sold out of everything and am all cash. it seems this must have been leaked to some as the mkt action of the past few days, so my call for dow 10600, might not be low enough, however this might just get blown off as priced into the mkt already. if we did not ever really go into recovery, from drop of dow 14000, the real number 12500, then dow 10600 is where i see it, but over reaction is probable. everybody was sayin the us is slow and the emerging mkt is were we get r steam, that is proving to b untrue. so what now? we need a saudi arabia like stream of money, as stated in many post nat gas could save america. i just hope we wake up in time …
fly , how come when u hit reply it doesnt go under the post? or at least go in order?
Here’s the deal. The Peerless POTUS will decry the inhumanity of S&P for their downgrade, acknowledge the difficulties it presents and then, AND THEN, ladies and germs, he will tell you that it had not been for his leadership, constructive ideas and detailed plans the downgrade would have been much worse! POTUS the Magnificent strikes again with new arrows in his campaign quiver. Those arrows just might turn around and pierce him in the backside.
This comment is precisely what it is, a POS. Ooops, maybe that was the subject.
I’m glad the downgrade happened now…I wouldn’t want it hanging over the market into the Fall.
The bond market knew it was going to happen and they weren’t concerned…I doubt it has any impact on rates. 30-yr mortgage rates will go below 4% soon.
The stock market will be scared by all the media hype, and even though I’m net short, I think I’ll be covering Monday or Tuesday.
With all the issues out on the table, it sets up for a strong rally into year end…from what level and at what time it starts is anybody’s guess.
we all cant work for mcd, cant afford an iphone at those wages
No worries, AAPL knew about the downgrade and will roll out a cheaper low-segment version of iPhone 4. MCD plans to include it in its $100 Happy Meals by Fall.
lol
We will all know when Asian mkt opens.
We will all know when Asian mkt opens
how come I cannot post msg now?
J points out interesting irony. US debt now officially less credible… And now people are selling stocks and moving to… Cash? As in.. Bonds? Does that make any sense? I suppose if you think this news is going to wake up congress and they are going to cut the 10 trillion in 10 years that they have to to get the rating back…. That way they are less likely to default with the “official” tag. If on the other hand they are going to ramp up spending while wealth gets transfered into stocks from US bonds that are now “more likely to default” then it should be bullish. On the other and the only thing this news changes is people’s perception of stocks and bonds. The fundamentals didn’t suddenly change, the US didn’t become less solvent and the people in Washington didn’t suddenly become more dumb than they already were… People are just only starting to “realize that” now. Personally I think that makes “sell stocks” a crowded trade if that’s what the public will start doing. Picture the random mom and pop with their 401ks upon watching them announce on local news that “the us is downgraded”. And then you have them probably remembering Geithners threat of “if the debt ceiling bill isn’t passed, us will get downgraded, cost of borrowing increases, stocks will crash, lehman 2.0, end of ze world, etc”
An interesting sidenote… Reading the financial news sort of gave me a sense that there was some propaganda preparing us for a downgrade and possible debt ceiling default with many articles about it “not being a big deal” all in unison as if the US was preparing public not to panic and was using influence of press to put out the propaganda. Yet like an idiot I thought I could catch a bounce first and then sell everything and go short but now I’m trapped in stocks. Maybe I was just being paranoid and financial news was just observers/confirmation bias and it was coincidence
Yeah, as Krugman notes, 2.5% for 10 year T-bonds is hardly a “default” rate. The bond market seems to be smarter than SnP.
This can’t help the situation.
“It Just Went From Bad To Far, Far Worse As Germany Says Italy Is Too Big For EFSF To Save, Refuses To Carry Euro Bailout Burden.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/it-just-went-bad-far-far-worse-germany-says-italy-too-big-efsf-save-refuses-carry-euro-bailout-
Germany refuses to bailout Italy. Euro to crash and burn. Net short position per fly’s counsel. Pain is coming…..zerohedge.com
It should be abundantly clear to all of us that we, the citizens of the US, are well and truly screwed. This has come about partly by our own doing because we engaged in the greed game and expected something for nothing, but more so because we disengaged from the workings of our government.
We sat back and allowed the denizens of the halls of Congress and the white house to piss away our national wealth in ever more egregious giveaways of our nations capital. We stood idly by and demanded nothing as energy prices rose to the point of bleeding trillions of dollars into the pockets of sovereign countries that as a rule care only that we pay our bills. Some of them could care less about our ideology and some hate us for the freedom we stand for. Either way they are not our friends. We believed the false prophets of wealth when they said “borrow, borrow, BORROW!! It is the way to financial nirvana”.
As a nation we now stand at a cross roads. Either direction we take offers pain but the direction of responsible austerity and thoughtful deleveraging will lead us to the paths of prosperity once more. It may look a little different (prosperity that is) when we finally get there. But we will get there.
Even from the mouth’s of tv assholes there is occasionally a gem. Dennis Miller says “maybe we should have a teleprompter tax, that would balance the budget.”
the dude even had a telepromter at his own berfday party. the music gods of the 70’s and 80’s are rolling over in their puke knowing he took stage at the aragon” brawl” room, as we called it every friday night in high school.
wow, moderation for a yes or no comment…lol
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