Classic Dawg
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Beaten, bludgeoned, and swallowed by an African Rock Python (only to be regurgitated, and then beaten again), I stand before you gob-smacked and riven. I’ve been selling off in drips and drabs this week, in anticipation of a pullback in the gold market, and a lesser refrain in the silvers. I guess I should feel relieved I got rid of some exceptionally over-weighted positions in some super-volatiles like AAU and AG.
I had even sold some RGLD yesterday — ever so reluctantly. It’s a testament to the kind of day I had when my losses in RGLD were some of the lowest of the day at a mere 4.54%. Many of my juniors were in the 10%+ loss range, with my beloved EXK leading the pack of ass-biters at a loss of over 14% by day’s end. In the end, I guess I feel a bit lucky that — thanks to my increased cash proportions and my tiny hedges on SLW — I only lost a tad more than 7% for the day.
But let’s not kid ourselves, this was a shock and a murder, and I left myself vulnerable when I should have been hedging. I know now that when my “Spider Senses” are tingling enough to make me want to cut back on some heavier positions, I should take that cue to hedge out more of the portfolio at the same time with at least sold calls.
Looking at the longer term charts in gold and silver it’s still difficult to say whether or not we are going to feel the great sucking sound again on the miners or whether we will bounce out of this dreadful day. In some cases — RGLD for instance — we haven’t even filled gaps yet from earlier in this week. What’s more, it looked like it could consolidate at these mid 60’s levels for a bit longer.
As for yesterday’s purchases, they were all unmitigated disasters — especially BWA — the Borg. I’d thought I was a bit early there, and sure ‘n hell if I wasn’t. I was down well over 7% in that “toe dip” position, so I thank Jupiter’s Stone that I “went small” in the initial buy. UPS was also down a bit over 3%, but I think the franchise name held that company up today.
Bollinger Crash Trade candidates were all over the decking today, but I think the tastiest may be the Emerging Market i-Shares play, EEM, whose twin, VWO, was the largest “buying on weakness” name today, according to the Wall Street Journal. I believe I shall be taking advantage of that one tomorrow, for the pop play.
Off to go drown my sorrows in a half gallon jug of Hugh Hendry Blue Label Gin & Jooce (sic).
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What a hot mess today was. Tomorrow is a new day. Hang in there.
Love the new name. Especially since it looks like Bob’s Big Boy is asking the question… winsomely.
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Shut up and eat your peas, Gint.
Indeud, most of us have seen worse. We will survive even this.
Senator,
Please counsel with M. Le Fly, and the freaking two of you remember who the Hell you are, to wit the freaking pros from Dover:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KojghwX_9eM
I appreciate you and M. Le Fly’s candour regarding an ass kicking you both took today, but I think some perspective is in order. Despite SAT; GRE; GMAT in the top 1 percentile and some time amassing a bit of a 6 figure portfolio, I consider myself something of blithering idiot of country bumpkin lineage compare the 2 of you. You 2 perform freaking “passing ham sandwich through your nose” type of trading feats. So screw the wound licking discourse from both of you and get back to the knife fight with the market that a host of us are damn near salivating to witness. Trade well – be happy.
I’m fine, no worries. And thanks for the kind words.
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Senator — I have to admit to being a bit jarred up on M. Le Fly favorite Camus Cab. If I had been at this for this long and it was only 6 figures I should have quit by now. In any case, you are 2 of the best. Your uncanny insight is a wonderment. Under ‘even a blind dog catches a rabbit sometimes” EDZ was very good to me today, however it leaves me blinded in the headlights for tomorrow. Your TCK looks inviting though.
Thanks for the post Jake. You and Fly are making me feel better about my loses.
Misery loves company. Ha
You meant VWO, right?
What? You never heard of Upside Down Dyslexia?
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Jake. Did you sell all your AAU?
No way. I had sold about 30% the day before, but none yesterday.
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Market is being set up for a nice bounce with the release of phony NFP numbers that will be the tonic that relieves. Talk about a squeeze, the corn will be squeezed out of the bear shitters scat, everything bounces today. There will be no worries at country club golf courses tomorrow. It’s a week end dontcha know, and worrying on week ends is for proles.
I bought in the last half hour of trading yesterday.
Decent surmise.
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Bahahahahaha!
Just as I predicted, 117K jobs created and previous months revised up. Everything is back to being swell. That’s just swell. Pit me an olive boy, I feel like a martini. TNA looking mighty swell. Tits N Ass dontcha know.
Riiiiight.
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Yo, is that first line a reference to Jon Voight’s role in the critically acclaimed “Anaconda?” I like how he winked after he was regurg’d.
LOL. No, the kids were watching something on Animal Planet last night that I’d caught a piece of. Apparently they are becoming a problem in Southern Florida.
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Pet shop burned down in the 60’s and hundreds of pythons escaped into the everglades. Now there are hundreds of thousands of them slithering to and fro. I’ve heard that when you call 911 there they have 4 services: Fire, Police, Ambulence, and Snake Issues. Trader Caddy would know.
And a little googling shows Rock Pythons are on the loose in Florida now too. Even though I generally loathe him, Jack Frost can sometimes be an ally to Calgarians.
7% move in a single day! I don’t know how you handle that volatility, up or down?
You get used to it, especially as the trend is inexorably up.
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What do you think about adding some PSLV here but still keeping some dry powder in the pouch?
It’s a good idea if that’s your instrument of choice, but the 20% premium to NAV means buying physical at the local bullion dealer is even better. The Sprott guys would tell you the same.
I’d stick w. gold for now… less volatile.
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Isn’t this the only tradable silver instrument that actually is 100% backed by the physical? That only is unique enough to warrant some premium. When you then consider storage costs combined with the liquidity and ease of sale provided by PSLV I think the premium is justified.
Don’t get me wrong I do own physical gold and silver coins as part of my core holdings however I think PSLV is something to own as well. There isn’t nearly enough silver to cover all the “paper” longs which will be exposed as physical backed commodity exchanges begin to open across Asia and the global demand to hold physical continues to accelerate.
Lastly how much does the 20% premium to NAV really matter when trading? If I buy today and Spot silver goes up tomorrow so too will PSLV and I will be profitable from the start.
As far as I know, yes. It is the only one.
Reasonable arguments.
Sell any EXK?
Not since earlier in the week. I still have a shitte tonne.
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Oh my ANV!!! What’s up with that? Margin call selling you think?
Yeah, it’s highly illiquid. That can be a problem.
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Just bought 5000 AUY. It’s been holding up like a champ in the midst of all this. I will buy more on weakness — the 2 year chart is promising indeed. Thanks for bringing it to my attention, Jake.
I noticed that too. It’s looking like the saucer will defeat all.
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hey Jake what think of FSG as a way to play this market…may have missed the entry point but it meshes with my macro view…thoughts?
This week has pretty much seen my capitulation and patience of playing in these here market sewers. Understand that I am not whining, just having myself a little vent. I have watched the futility of the traders in 12631. Trading in and out. Trying to catch bottoms. Tops. I have watched all the traders in and out of the PPT lay their souls bare working the financial sewage. I have no idea how to apply the PPT to this madness. I am yet pathetic compared to the experienced traders in this forum. Yet they too are shaken form the shenanigans of last week and beyond.
My only saving grace has been I have been scared out of my mind to trade much of anything since 2008. I got out almost perfectly before the crash. I mostly stayed shivering on the sidelines post crash. I am a retail investor. Not a trader. I am that which apparently the likes of hedge funds and big banks enjoy laying waste to.
I joined PPT in the hopes I could improve my portfolios standing. To get an edge. I’m apparently too stupid to figure out what to do with it. Which is fine. That’s my problem and not the PPT.
I have managed to follow a couple of newsletters that are actually reasoned approaches to investments. The school of thought now is there is no such thing as buy and hold anymore. I don’t know about that. I deployed some cash to add to stocks in my IRA to get a lower basis. I’m not going to open my account next week. Or the next. Fuck it. I have some steady investments that I feel like I can hold. I’m done trying to trade. 2008 came and went and no one who held was any worse from it. I hope I can say the same thing in 2013, 2014 or 2015.
I don’t trust our government or big banks. At all. I’m not one to say that the rich don’t deserve what they earn but something is fishy about the way this game is played. I’m not playing anymore. I’ll do what I can in my IRA but Friday I stopped contributing to my 401(k). I’m done not being in control of my money. Shitty mutual funds. I picked up the phone and called a bullion dealer and bought 10oz of silver and a gold coin and signed up for their monthly gold and silver accumulation program. Instead of participating in company sponsored government retirement programs I am going to fuck the banks and the government and hold gold and silver. The more people that say that is a stupid thing to do will only further embolden me that it is the right ting to do.
How in the world can any of this end up positive? The government will default. It’s only a matter of when. My kids can have my PM one day if nothing else. They can smelt the shit down and make silver spoons and earrings if all goes well and the DOW is at 30K. Traders all want the government to step up and bail them out One. More. Time. Pump the system with more money. How corrupt is that? How can anyone in the Fed sleep at night knowing what they are doing to this country? How can our Reps sleep knowing they continually add more to the debt. Insanity.
Anyway, I’ve had it. I’m not attempting to trade anymore. I’m stuffing my IRA with stocks that have shit tons of cash on the books, no debt and with bright futures worldwide and am buying gold and silver. I only wish it didn’t take me this long to get my head out of my ass.
I will continue to follow Mr Gint. His seems a reasoned and intelligence analysis. I have made money in some of his suggestions. Thanks for letting me vent this. Sometimes it’s nice to write things out and get it off the chest, as it were.
Nice rant, thanks.
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Would you consider doing a post on how you find and use buying on weakness data, please. Thank you in advance kind sir.
Well, I have it as a bookmark, but for a lark I just googled this:
“Wall Street Journal Buying on Weakness”
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South of Mason Dixon
The PPT is best used as a mean reversion tool, catching tops and bottoms. When panic enters the equation, everything changes, at least short term. We will get back to normal soon. Hang in there.
Thanks kind sir. I am sure you are right.
South of Mason
Think of The PPT as a tool to find what you want in a stock. Aside from predictive algos, it is an incredibly powerful screener that can narrow down you research time for a fraction of what it normally takes the conventional way.
The market has been dreadful. Therefore, long directional bets have been poor choices. All of the inverse ETF’s have been in strong buy range for a week plus now. I haven’t bought any because I was wrong. Plain and simple.
Over a longer period of time, if you ask the right questions to learn, you will see the benefits.
Yea, I just have to hope I have something left. I mean, looks like everything is going to zero with the exception of gold. How screwed up is that? I think I would be better off not paying attention to all the noise. It’s getting in my head and making me make…rash decisions. I don’t know if I’m right or wrong anymore. MX is right: it is always darkest before the dawn. I simply want to grow my portfolio. I have to figure out if I’m good enough to trade it to success or simply go the Dave Ramsey route and stick in the market and go away for 30 years. I’ll figure it out.
I was curious after I wrote the rant and calmed the fuck down, and ran a screen in the PPT for gold/silver stocks with a dividend yield. I came up with a number of gold stocks and a handful of silver stocks. The screener is indeed a powerful time saver. I’m going to dig around some more and of course keep an eye on your “Dip Buying” screen.
Mason Dixon- Hang in there, don’t give up. Just sit tight and don’t do anything rash until things calm down.
Remember things always look darkest just before……you are killed. No, just kidding.
Moober- I’d enjoy seeing that Bob’s Big Boy face in person again one day. Many years ago I used to have morning coffee at a Starbucks next to the Burbank location.
http://activerain.com/image_store/uploads/3/4/8/1/7/ar129288227471843.jpg
Time to trim short term positions in gold. It is way overbought right here. Gonna come crashing down to $1600 any day now.
It will then be time to load up long again. Gold is the only play long term.