We all know today’s tape is weak, even though we are supposed to bounce hard. We all know there has been significant damage done to the indices and momentum stocks. Hedge fund managers are getting their fucking asses kicked, stuck inside bank stocks—which are also called “fag boxes” in many parts of the country. We know have gone through these sort of tapes before and understand how to trade them, some more than others.
Let’s analyze the situation that’s in front of us and make predictions, based on reality, not some bearshitter in a blue blazer fantasy.
Will Greece be allowed to fail?
The answer, based upon recent and past events, is no.
Will American states get Federal funding?
Yes.
Will the Fed ignore its mandate to spur growth?
No.
How does Greece, the American states get funded and the Federal Reserve help spur growth?
Print more money.
It’s that simple, folks. At this stage, the ambiguous unknown, people are waiting for the answers. Hence, the market is selling off, based upon heavy hitters winding up shop going into summer and retail fuckers getting scared shitless due to headline risk. Only plebs respond to current news. I am interested in future news and how it might affect stock prices.
My next question to you is: Can you stand the pain?
If not, be prepared to endure lots of volatility, as the weaker hands get flushed out. Corrections are always painful. Position yourself to stay in the game and when the worm turns, you will make up all of your losses, AND MORE.
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yah, price tells, screw the news.
Fuck you.
Sometimes the best responses are short ones. I sold covered July calls against my Weiner position to earn income while I wait, pass the sauerkraut, I can wait for my WNR…
Does background color scheme on these here posts portend that M. Le Fly is awaiting a purple headed; blue veined throbber of a WNR ????
I am about to retrench and wait for clarity. Fuck playing highly leveraged butane plays waiting for the bounce that doesn’t seem to be materializing.
Will someone tell the price of silver to make up its God-damned mind.
Patience Grasshopper. Got Physical?
Indeud……
Global austerity binge = bull market death. We better get a big dose of good old fashioned Keynesian stimulus pronto or else it’s “Welcome to the Deflationary Vortex Part II” in 3-D.
Tea Party neanderthals are holding econ hostage with debt limit nuclear option. They will force US back into austerity economic stone age.
LOL
You are a bottle rocket scientist.
________
How long did it take you to come up with that one? Maybe some day I can aspire to reach the intellectual powerhouse level of your idol Sarah Palin LOL! 😉
FLY,
are you adding to WNR here or you feel for downside from here?
Will Uncle Fly send Fly, Jr. to private school next year?
No, because we are BFF.
Will my Dad be able to sell a bunch more insurance to Uncle Fly so I can go to private school with Fly, Jr.?
Yes, because Uncle Fly loves to buy insurance. My Dad Says Uncle Fly is an insuranceaholic.
Will my WNR ever grow?
I hope so.
yea, if you stop playing with it
the action in this market is starting to disgust me.
I have glued scorpion stingers to my keyboard in order to feel more pain.
Will trade my complete portfolio of dry bulk shipping stocks for an El Camino (doesn’t have to run)
Total value of your DBS stocks = ?
I have an El Camino or two or three …
I know that I’m not supposed to address The Fly directly, so I’ll take answers from anyone.
What is the likelihood that the refiners smash Q2 earnings and don’t get the pump we’d like because of any or all of the following: (1) seasonality, (2) the large amount of hot money in these stocks waiting for positive news to dump, (3) volatility, (4) dumbfuck hedges, etc.
I’m heavily invested in energy generally and refiners specifically, so I’m not trying to poke fun. I’m really trying to gauge how long the pain is going to last before we will start seeing some of the results of near-record profit margins. I’m also trying to temper my expectations for earnings season, especially since I’ve been holding through the pain to make it to earnings.
Keep holding.
I’m holding those that pay the big divies, so it does not affect me. Look relative is my opinion, IMO, IMHO.
“Will Greece be allowed to fail?” What do you mean by that? They already have failed.
“Will American States get Federal funding?” Again, do you mean for little infrastructure things, or bail-out California lock-stock & barrel action? While bleeding out, the Bernanke can only provide transfusions for so long (or he guaruntees the $100 tomato).
“Will the Fed ignore its mandate to spur growth?” I think the answer to this is a lot more complicated than the word “No.” Not that I think Ron Paul will end the fed, but the answer is not binary.
should say “while states bleed out”
They have not failed. If they failed, they would have already defaulted.
Did Iceland fail or succeed?
One definition of failure might be ‘to accept an impossibly large multigenerational slave-making bailout, and have many of your tangible assets taken from you (like government buildings, national gold stockpile, and business (through exhorbitant taxes)’.
Another worthwhile question:
Will Greece be bailed out every month until forever?
shorts need to be squeeeeezed in wnr. too much pain in the whole port. but wtf do i know
Bailouts aren’t the same as money printing (QE).
Stop over thinking it and stay short.
bailouts and printing money are the same.
Yes I agree they print money for bailouts but all it does is extend and pretend. We need bailouts AND QE for it to make sense to get bullish risk assets.
The reason the market is royally fucked is because even the Dems are obsessed with moronic “Austerity Now” doctrine. Here we are in the mother of all liquidity traps and what we need is massive shock and awe stimulus but what we have instead is do nothing Fed, and at best a do nothing Congress or at worst massive cuts in govt. spending. Can you say deflationary vortex?
Print money and spend it on all sorts of feel good programs. Anything compassionate. Screw the bankers. We don’t need strong US banks. Those fuckers ruined the economy. If Barney Frank and Chris Dodd were really in charge none of this shit would have happened. Fannie and Freddie could still be carrying the economy. Republicans are just mean for no reason.
I treuly hope that you are saying that with tongue firmly in cheek and with hyperbole dripping from between your fingers like ice cream melting on a 95* day. Especially regarding the part about Barney “Take it up the Tailpipe” Frank. My Stars!!!!…………just paint a big L on his forehead and let him wander the streets looking for other muttering, puttering, tottering old queers.
Herb Moses (probably the pitcher in the relationship) and Frank sought to deregulate Fannie, making it possible for unqualified borrowers to get loans. Do a little research next time.
Speaking of banks, what is their primary asset?
This is a huge news story for banks:
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=188061
Banks provide the loans / liquidity that are the credit lifeblood of the economy. What did Jamie D. recently ask B.B. about at his last meeting? The effect of new rules on bank liquidity.
The banks have the politicians where they want them, they failed to raise the debt limit and until that is resolved (and possibly now this title issue with fraudclosures), what is the impetus for higher prices? Hope and momentum change? We have the golf outing this week between B.O.and J.B. so maybe they will have a little press conference and outline the debt limit plan following it, but the market needs something to grab on to and rally on. They are letting the air out of the commodity bubble speculation before further juice.
It’s the summer stupid ( I’m talking to the bears ie Johnny2time). I love how they drag out stories we’ve heard a thousand times to validate their views and get all orgasmic over a small correction. Let’s face it… ground hogs day isn’t forever and before you find cover Ben is going to turn you inside out.
good point. I mean, wasn’t cramer crying that Ben wasn’t printing enough money just a few years ago? We are at the point where more money printing results in negative GDP growth. It’s not the same as it used to be, growth will always be finite over a specific period of time.
Maybe he will add to QE, but The consumer is expected to save more money, spend more, and compensate for higher food and fuel prices… all while banks like HSBC are leaving the US credit card market….
Consider the economy derailed. It ran into a brick wall, and QE will only result in higher gas prices. Without pay raises AND employment increases, money will be flowing overseas thanks to ultra low rates, businesses that borrow here are saying… hmmm… job market is better, gas prices are too high to support consumerism, middle class is expanding in other countries… Lets borrow money from the US to fund overseas growth…. cash flowing away from this country means there will be no real recovery.
QE3 will utterly fail…. There will be no doubt we have reached the point of no return, and the public will realize soon.
No story here slick. Fact: Massive unwinds always start small. Better hope you are right.
Iran and Venezuela are now dominating opec .
They are pledging to cut oil outputs to counter any Saudi increases. Its very difficult to see what will keep XLE from hitting new highs for the year in a few months.
This will hasten mad investment scramble away from unstable mideast oil, into new regions (canada, brazil, US shale and deepwater) etc. So, PBR, SU, EOG , MRO should still do very well.
Obama’s inability to do anything about this will send his poll numbers to all time lows. When he slides even further against republicans, fund managers will get even more bullish on materials/energy. And, alot of that money will be thrown at oil exploration XOP sector.
Obama is more Republican that Dimwit Bush.
i don’t favor either party.
But the fund manager crowd is narrow minded, and leans very conservative. These things affect their behavior.
Goldman Sachs donated more $ to the Obama campaign than any other except U of Cal. system.
GS is an arm of the Rothschilds. Not a tiny fund manager.
obama should be drawn and quartered. he is a know nothing POS. a fucking pimp produces more then he does.
You rang?
hey hey hey
Fly
There’s no leadership to take us higher…other than your fakakta time machine, what else do you have to support the bullish thesis?
the space ship does shorts too…………………………do these shorts make my ass look fat
Money printing is over for now.
Tepper, Gross, and every other relevant investor with a brain is telling you it’s over at least for awhile. The tape is also telling you it’s over.
Greece is toast. The ratings agencies and the bond traders are spelling it out for you. I predict Greece bails on the Euro and goes back to their own currency within the next year or two. The ECB wants to print of course and keep the game going but I think the Greek government is realizing this isn’t the right thing for the people of Greece.
Turning your own people into a group of debt slaves in order to save the banks simply won’t politically work over the longer term.
The money printing will be back, the question is will it be 30% down from here before Bernanke turns the printing press back on.
If he does what the fuck happens to the dollar?
We R Fucked
don’t forget ECRI telling you it’s game over as well…
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/06/13/ecris-achuthan-prolonged-u-s-slowdown-underway/
Nothing bullish about this, especially when the Fed/Congress are out of the stimulus game. Say hello to the Deflationary Vortex.
Don’t be so dramatic. Deflationary vortex is bogey man, just like the $100 tomato.
What rock were you living under in that you missed the entire year of 2008? We have already experienced deflationary vortex just 3 years ago unlike $100 tomato which has been fictional forever. Now because policymakers memories are so short or IQ’s so low (or some combo thereof) we get to replay it again only probably worse this time because Fed is out of bullets.
fed is never out of bullets. just of targets.
as prices come down we gonna have all kinds of rocket scientists telling us to beware the deflationary vortex. good luck filling out that type cast role.
BEVARE!!
pull de string!!
Comment deserve 10x thumbs up.
QE3 will come. Depends on how far down they want to see the commodity prices.
Pimco is coming out advocating for UK style austerity. Sensible.
Greece is hopeless and being played out. They are being pushed out the door. Crafty euros let them believe it’s their own choosing. Greeks as so clueless they don’t even realize the door they are stepping through has been left open for them to walk straight out. It’s a delinquent state with delinquent people. No one pays taxes there.
Pimco is talking their book. Who would benefit more from a deflationary vortex than the worlds largest bondholder LOL!
Gross sold out his treasuries.
Treasuries. He still owns bonds.
and how is that wrong? i mean protecting the ones that saved money all their lives.
Savings is the last fort. lose the savings; lose the war. that’s the foundation of your economy. if you lose that, you can then forget about risk and destructive innovation and all that jazz.
The fed wont do QE3 unless oil is 75 or lower. Implementation with oil at 95 or above would jack pump prices to 5.50 or above within days, if not hours.
Media, and politicians from both parties, would tear into them like hyenas .
Ben would suddenly announce he is looking to “spend more time with his family”, after being forced to resign.
“depends on how far hey want to see commodity prices”. first of all,where is the demand,aside from gas and food.second, all commodity prices were more speculation than the demand itself…indie, just look how lumber has gone way up and way down……all before the huricanes. where’s the demand.. if the rbob was @ 3.45 where was the demand? it’s @ 2.99-3.00, theres a glut of earl….once again speculation……………..was watching a little bit of cramer tonight. he pulled out a prop, it was a book of wall street ethics, he flipped the pages, the pages were blank nuff said
bounce smounce
Where’s Devil Dog?
I miss Horatio Clawhammer.
Nominal vs. Real stock price decline in a money printing environment de-claws Horatio’s hammer. He’ll be back some day. But I would guess not soon (not while the US dollar lives). But I miss him too.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43378973
Only difference is we own a printing press. And like to use it.
Fly great post sir.
Listening XM to Roubini lady on the Fast Money talking with great certainty about 2013…haha Playoffs…Playoffs..you gotta be fucking kidding me ..Lets go to Atlantic City.
We all know this TARP QE Bullshit Workout plan can only go so far…..bring the pain yeah right.
Housing down 34% from 2006–
100 ozs of Gold now buys a house. $RGLD
SCREWFLATION man Doug Kass likes $TBT …me too @ about $20
KEYNES FOR THE FUCKING WIN BITCHEZ
i saw that broad also. she, like rubini are full of it
Miami Heat has no heat.
They are celebrating in Cleveland LeBron DO YOU HEAR ME??
THEY ARE CELEBRATING IN CLEEEEVELAND!!!
Indeed.
Confidence people.
It’s all about confidence in the “full faith and credit”.
When that’s gone, then and only then will the fat lady will sing.
Great post Fly. Thanks.
Bought some BORN today at $3.84! I’m optimistic! Besides, Fly said a while ago that it should be a $20.00 stock!
You are out of your mind
Maybe!
Anyone considering silver stocks here?