I sold out of AG because I was sick of the volatility. Plus I own EXK. Owning both of those stocks made up 15% of my assets, which is too risky, considering their asinine beta. What I intend to do is reposition in honorable commodity stocks, like OXY. Look, just because I decided on a thesis doesn’t mean I have to go “all in” right now. I take it easy, plotting my plans while slapping people in the face with hot slices of pizza.
In addition to AG, I sold out of TLT too, in order to get liquid. My cash position is 50% and I am firmly in control of my destiny, effectively reducing risk while confirmed on a course of action.
For now, I need to see the market firm up a bit, prior to adding any more stocks.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
FIG
some specific material/natural resource etfs
ld – lead
jjt – tin
ura -uranium
jjn-nickel
jju-aluminum
It looks like we have another 300-400 pts leg down coming up before the bottom.
why not 2373 so we go back to 10K, a nice and even number?
zzz
If short sellers can’t get EEM emerging markets under last week’s lows, the more likely Industrials XLI will start to rise,boosting the Dow. EEB EEM VWO are outperforming everything right now.
But, since the permabears never learned from last summer’s EEM emerging market squeeze, why would they start to pay attention to it now?
yndx, see a day high @ 61,,lol market order?
Bought some PMI for a trade, 5% leash. The mortgage insurers have been blown out, but I’ll take the risk here on decent home sales data.
PMI chart is dismal… Decent home sales data? When do you expect that to happen?
new home sales up, in april. 2nd stright mo.
They count putting 1 buck down with a handshake as a home sale. fwiw
well they better be, fricken hud, owned a house up the block, it foreclosed 2 years . it wasnt advertised as a hud home when it went up for sale. went from 156k,then down to 109k, and finally for 80k, at that price it took 8 months for a buyer to step in. whats under EVERYONES radar, ,is the fact that hud and the rest of the gse’s are putting in the bottom. this house, before the bubble, and the burst of that bubble, that same house went for 375k……. nice sale. all brick home,nice corner lot.
now thats shufflin-a-deck, my man
you need to tell us where or it doesnt mean a thing.
sorry dude,far nrthwest side of chicago
Could you please tell your Bulls to knock out the Heat? I can’t bare to watch LBJ any longer… ever since he took his talents to South Beach.
Bear to watch. Not bare to watch. Unless you mean you can no longer get naked before watching LBJ. Then nevermind.
They act like it’s a good thing— new home sales at 300K annual rate, oh- up 20K from that one month. It’s still dismal. In 2005 it was 1.4 million.
A housing recovery is far away, but I suspect many have just been force liquidating positions in the mortgage insurers lately. Dodd-Frank QRM legislation is ridiculous and should be resolved logically. A week ago Core Logic said that 39% of home purchases in 2010 would not have happened if austere QRM was implemented. QRM is a function of price decline, not directly credit quality, through which causality is determined by inflated house prices due to dishonesty from lenders. Furthermore, home price declines are concentrated in areas where these conditions occurred and shouldn’t be covered with national legislation. Because homes are priced mostly on comparable home sales figures, it affects regions in a Doppler type effect.
As QEII winds down and perhaps we get a selloff in long bonds, 30-yr fixed mortgage rates will begin to creep up and refis will trigger along with a possible further uptick in housing as people lock in rates. If this cauterizes the price declines and steep downpayment requirements get shot down, the mortgage insurers will look better.
Lastly, there was a third-tier firm that upgraded PMI yesterday which should help to draw some bids in the name.
Frank and Dood could not admit they fucked up– so they came up with some bullshit legislation instead of undoing the mistakes of the past.
Very interesting…G.Sachs ups WNR target to 22 from 20….
i bought ERX on the open and got out with a large enough gain to cover yesterday’s losses. If I had bigger balls, I would have stayed in a while longer. Yesterday’s stinging losses turned me into a chickenshit. It’s funny how the wins are forgettable, but the losses can live on in the mind like herpes.
Dumped my $DATE, got about $2.35 out of her
I followed your TLT trade, nice cash register! OXY looks rather prepped and well dressed to take out. Gr8 suggestion.
I agree, they will never let Greece fail. Money printing is the name of the game, until it all ends at once. I strongly believe they can keep this up another year and a half and that everything will collapse in the fall of 2012.
I don’t think the Greek thing is as easy as we think it is. There are a lot of fucking players in this and accidents can happen.
The Germans are totally against expanding the ECB balance sheet with junk and letting the fuckers off easy. The ECB recently raised rates to indicate it was tightening. The Greeks are literally dropping dead from the austerity and fucking up their economy by heading into deeper recession.
The easy course is as Fly suggests, which would be to inflate. However inflating away is not that fucking simply with the Germans whose economy would go white hot.
And what happens with the Greek debt, as they still have to pay the coupon they can’t afford? If they go easy on them the rest of the PIIGS will demand easy treatment and why not?
The problem is that this is the EU and the chess game is multii-faceted with an lot of fucking players. The US didn’t really experience large policy error after the Fed began to get a handle on shit. However don’t expect the same sort of shit to happen in the hole called the EU. A lot of crap could go wrong in that fucked up place.
Fly could be right, they do inflate. However it’s not as easy as we think and a lot of stuff could go wrong.
The German people hate the south and don’t want them off the hook for by the dishonest sacks of shit they are.
There is a presidential election in 2012 that says otherwise.
It doesnt matter if they will bail out Greece or not. In the short term, the delay will probably cause this market to puke 300-400 pts from here, pushing us down to a nice 1260-1280 range.
So in your world 300-400 point decline in the S&P500 translates into a 30-50 point decline in the S&P500 – interesting math.
300-400 Dow pts translate into 40-50 SPX.
Sorry for the misunderstanding – I didn’t realize people still watched the dow
the thing about banks that worries my is the unknown, r they mark to market? or r they using numbers that dont really reflect there value, like a guy owns a house thats underwater but still is making his payments, is the bank reflecting the correct value/ risk in there books. any thoughts on this sir fly?
Mr Fly, are you still holding WNR?
of course
Mucho gracias Senor Tropicana!
Come On Little Dollar, you can hold 76.00…ignore that wishy washy clam, it can’t hurt you anymore.
btw, 2 year auction in about 13 minutes. Bid to Cover in last months was 3.06 and pretty good.
Silver looks great here, long silver and short IWM and FXE via puts.