I was down about 1.6% today, despite large gains in FORM, OXY, SHLD and CY. My big dicked WNR/CVI positions came home to roost today, as every gay male west of Japan sold refiners with reckless abandon. I will not bitch and moan about the “dumbness” of the market or how unjust it treated me today. It is what it is, right or wrong. On most days, I bathe in my enemies blood, while eating their livers. However, today, those fucking bastards are eating mine.
After the bell, it appears FORM blew out EPS estimates.
In summary, I doubled my SHLD position today and started a new one in PLAB. And, I got my brains blown the fuck out in my refinery stocks. That’s all.
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Looking forward to my @WNR growing in the future…
its only about winning the war. Fuck the little daily skirmishes.
Big dicked positions…gay males…crack spreads….mmmm
The day will come when my WNR will spurt mightily!!
Fly RULES. Period.
I’m going to leave a comment alluding to my WNR; haa my WNR hurts haa.
Whilst I feel my WNR being roasted over the hot coals of savory apple wood, I will nonetheless take it like a man!!
great song selection.
I’m still holding my WNR. FORM to 16!!!
God, this pain and angst reminds me so much of FTK. Look at WNR’s monthly. I think I am going to mortgage the house to buy more WNR….
FTK was Lord Fly’s Greatest Call. Anyone here still hold FTK?
I am hoping that WNR will be Lord Fly’s Next Great Call. Buying the Dips…
I am. June 7.5 calls.
WNR to 20.
24
25
2.5
Jay-Z’s improved but damn NAS still pwns
Four Refiners Set for Upside (2/14/11)
Credit Suisse
In our Energy Outlook for 2011 (Dec. 27, 2010), we highlighted that the Refiners were undervalued and self-help would drive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) higher.
We followed that with a detailed 10 Steps to Refiner Heaven report (Feb. 2, 2011) outlining how self-help could drive industry EBITDA 60% higher by 2013. Two of the sub-themes within both notes were a positive view on diesel cracks and accessing cheap crude in the mid-continent. Both of these themes have surprised our forecasts in first-quarter 2011.
Inland crudes have gotten cheaper and diesel prices have become more expensive. With no easy fix to get inland crude to world markets on the horizon through 2013 (or even 2014) we raise EBITDA estimates for 2011 by 21% (50% excluding Valero Energy), raise longer-term estimates by 4% (8% excluding Valero) and raise target prices once more for the refining subsector. The mid-continent is dominating the near-term refining discussion.
However, the contribution from self-help at Valero and other companies over time should not be overlooked.
Additional crude supply into the mid-continent from Canada and shale plays (e.g. Bakken) is driving down crude input costs for in-land refiners, such as Western Refining (WNR), Holly (HOC), Delek US Holdings (DK), Frontier Oil (FTO) and Marathon Oil (MRO).
We had previously stated that pipeline infrastructure could resolve this by 2013. However this might be optimistic — comments at our Vail conference suggest late 2013 or 2014 to be more likely.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) — Western Canadian Select (WCS) differentials have widened to C$24 per barrel in first-quarter 2011, (up C$8 per barrel quarter-over-quarter on pipeline disruptions). We expect supply issues to continue for the rest of 2011 and are thus raising our 2011 WTI — WCS differential assumptions to $22.50 per barrel (up from C$17/bbl).
Longer-term Canadian differentials are expected to remain high. Industry consensus at our 2011 Vail Energy conference suggests that WTI — WCS differentials could remain elevated (though volatile). Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), for example, believe that heavy differentials will be in the 23%-25% (off WTI) range while Frontier expects differentials to settle in the low $20-per-barrel range.
Following our refining-margin and crude-differential revisions, our 2011 EBITDA estimates rise substantially for the mid-continent-exposed group (Delek, Frontier, Holly, Western Refining). Our longer-term EBITDA estimates rise by 4% (8% excluding Valero). We are raising our target prices by 13% for the group, which leaves a further 18% upside.
— Edward Westlake
— Rakesh Advani
my WNR shrunk today, but no problem, I will pump it up all night to the point of maximum rigidity for tomorrow.