I’ve always felt as if I was on borrowed time, long this market. Often times, I’d tell people this. If you know me, I have probably mentioned it to you once or twice. The idea that we could manufacture new money, instead of good and services, in order to escape the wrath of depression is a last ditch attempt, sort of like Japan using firehoses and seawater to solve a nuclear meltdown (I suppose the aliens didn’t tell us how to shut it off). Even if you look back on my 2011 market predictions, I said volatility, via VXX, would be the best trade of 2011.
Reasoning: I was expecting a surprise event that would fuck the markets sideways.
The house that Ben built is collapsing and there is little that can be done. There was no way for his nerds to forecast this disaster; but it happened. It’s very likely that the market will rally significantly, within a week or so, based upon some sort of minor victory over nuclear power plants. But the wheels are in motion. The amount of money that Japan will need to borrow will be the straw that broke the camels back. If their rates uptick, it is game over for them. They will default and flush everyone down with them, including the FUCKING BASTARDS FROM CHINA. You know, that shithole where FAKE AND FRAUDULENT COMPANIES DERIVE FROM, LISTING HERE IN THE STATES, LYING TO OUR AUDITORS.
The recovery here in the U.S. has been tenuous at best. We cannot afford the world’s third largest economy to go offline. Don’t forget, more than 30% of the global NAND (flash memory) supply is made in Japan. That will affect everything from ipads to laptops.
Here’s the trade:
Sell everything.
As of yesterday’s close, I was 30% cash, heavily long stocks like WNR and OPEN. I will keep WNR; but everything else is subject to immediate liquidation. I am not interested in playing chicken with a fucking nuclear power plant. At this stage, the value of your account is not relevant. Your strategy should revolve around preservation, live to fight another day.
I will not buy any inverse ETF’s or short stocks at this point, because there is a chance for a sharp rally off the carnage. However, I am very much interested in getting a whole lot smaller, especially before everyone else starts bugging the fuck out. If this downside has legs, this is merely the opening salvo, into a series of market drops that will make you wish you had listened to me today.
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WOW – 2012, the end of all mankind
“I am not interested in playing chicken with a fucking nuclear power plant”. That’s damn funny.
first thing i thought was “wait — i don’t want to play chicken with a nuclear power plant either…”
I have been patiently waiting 1250 since i prematurely moved my 401k to cash in December. Now here it is and this little missive you’ve just penned is going to prevent me from taking advantage. Guess I will wait for 1200…
Wow, good post… But I
Feel like I just read something I wrote.
Me too, except for going short…which I did a long time ago because I am not like Fly, I am too new at the game, ouch, and make a lot of stupid mistakes.
I say we blame the Irish – damn St. Patrick’s day – I should have took the week off and started drinking on Monday.
It’s never too late to start 😉
Fly you Rule! What do you make of the debt news on WNR?
Not relevant. Crack spreads are down 8% right now. Refiners will come down today.
Fly, selling BORN?
“Sell now and live to fight another day” – if you trade for a living, frame that and put it on your wall.
WHAT THEN? YOU HAVE TO TAKE A POSITION AT SOME POINT.
Yes, when things calm down and you could hopefully make a better, more informed, decision…the market will be here every day…you don’t have to trade it every day.
ENTER THE DEFLATIONARY VORTEX.
Great to see how silver/gold performing their new functions as alternative currencies.
4-5%down is on the card
Been awake since 3am PDT monitoring Japan nuke meltdown and markets.
The probability of nuclear fallout hitting the west coast is now at 100% based on my research of EPA radiation detection monitoring services (RadNet). The only question remains, how big of a radiation dose will we get and for how long? That will determine our fate. If it’s bad, it’s not just human health, but economic impact from food supply contamination. Especially here in California.
Fear is gaining momentum as Potassium Iodide is close to being sold out and unavailable across the country. See WSJ article from yesterday. I was unable to locate any yesterday after numerous calls and visits to shops. Im hoping there are govt stockpiles available somewhere if needed.
Pretty soon it will become a matter of life preservation, let alone capital preservation.
Hoping for the best, but fearing the worst.
Oh fer cripes… this piece says there’s only a 10% chance of any radiation hitting Taiwan, and that the current winds are heading westward.
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Chernobyl contamination made it’s way around the entire planet. Yes, radiation has half-life but if it’s intense enough (as in a nuclear reactor meltdown), it will contaminate everything worldwide at some level, with some variation of course.
Cabinet-level Atomic Energy Council and Department of Nuclear Regulation of the AEC… the sources of the information you posted. Who is trusting govt for news right now? Your life depends on it and the central bankers who own the media have had a long-term love affair with population control. This may a great opportunity for them to cull the population.
Fear and panic in No Cal is the norm.
Speaking to you from Neighbor Fly’s airtight shed in the backyard. A little crowded with Fly’s illegal Mexican gardeners in here but is rather cozy. We are drinking Tequila and Manischewitz wine waiting for the fallout to arrive. Plenty of room here for the Fly family and the rest of the Steve Family.
Tequila & Manischewitz……you’ll be dead well before any fallout arrives
Go back to the Yahoo board. You are fucking out! KP
I hope this is satire.
THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS 100% IN STATISTICS, YOU LITTLE WHORE MONGER
Yes, potassium iodide (KI) is sold out everywhere. If one wants KI as an insurance policy, and if the govt is wrong or is lying (not to difficult to imagine), one now cannot get it.
A good backup solution is to use liquid iodine, 2 ml per day rubbed on your skin, 1x/day.
Any guesses as to how far this PM deleveraging will go? SLW is getting smacked, as is GDXJ (over 7.8% yield).
Wait til ten, there will be opportunity. Dollar hit it’s head on $77.
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Already creeping back. If dollar continues below $76.60 here, I’ll likely start on some of the options I mentioned last night.
Also eyeing a cuppa JO.
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What’s new QIDdy cat whoa-o whoa-o
Fly
I think the bulk of the Japanese funding will come from a massive Japanese QE. The fed won’t have to be involved that much.
The private draw-down will be for insurance claims and that will amount to to around $35 billion by I bank estimates. That’s the only private claim there could be. The rest of the money will come from the Japanese government. They can’t sell their reserves or they would send the currency down to 60 and destroy themselves in the process.
They can’t borrow the money because they are tapped out at 230% debt to GDP.
They have no choice but to go into a massive printing spasm.
This is “positive” for global equities as cash is dicked in favor of inflation.
Won’t the Japanese utterly destroying the yen strengthen the dollar.
Feels like where we were with Europe last spring.
yea, but what choices do they have Cain.
Send the currency down to 60 and destroy their exporters or print the cash and have the yen trashed to 100 or higher?
The Japanese are going to be poorer for a long time and there’s nothing they can do about it.
Race to the bottom for all my friends!
Who ya gonna call?
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I thought I was making a genious move getting into uranium producers yesterday. I was incorrect.
Spelling genius wrong. Classic.
I laughed when i wrote “positive”.
I can’t see how the fuck the Japanese can get out of this without printing money themselves on huge GDP relative quantities.
I want to repeat the issue about selling foreign reserves. If they did that the central bank would have to cross it through the exchange otherwise how else would they get Yen for dollars. The total clean up and reconstruction will amount to 180 billion by some estimates. The FX market will not be able to take it and they would trash the US bond market sending their exporters on the ropes if the US went into a japanese led bond ducking induced recession.
They have no other choice other than to QE and QE in serious size… it will be sooner rather than later.
Agreud. We have no choice either.
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Shaken Out!
Asshole imposter!
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TMoe is short WYNN and LVS
Every time gasoline gets to $3.50-$4.00/gallon, the market tanks.
@geoduck — go fuck yourself
Food futures ( DBA ) look overdone on downside, in this crash. Risk of mass contamination and industry shutdown won’t make food cheaper
DAG is food double long.
Nor will it make uranium cheaper ironically. But some of the falling samarai swords I grabbed yesterday are looking really really good now. HAT, FDC, DML, FIS, etc. Refrickingdickulous.
CLH a good play?
I am here in Tokyo and people are freaking the shit out right now. Some people are buying Shinkansen train ticket to Hiroshima right now.
Irony!
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Amazing – going to Hiroshima to get away from nuclear fallout!
PWER and SOL bucking the trend!
Everything you say is correct. And I may open up a 2004 left bank in your honor tonight.