Until the nuclear situation is resolved in Japan, expect the markets to remain weak. Thus far, everything is down in Japan tonight, which is spreading to all markets trading in Asia. In addition to the declines, prices of gasoline, heating oil and NAND/DRAM chips are ripping higher, based upon supply disruption. This sort of adds salt to the wounds. However, as market participants, it’s our job to exploit these disconnects.
From what I have gathered, Micron’s fabs are unscathed and stand to benefit the most from the subsequent price spikes. As for the heating oil/gasoline, let’s hope that crude continues lower, effectively jacking up the crack spreads for the refiners. Keep in mind, my little refiner WNR reported “record spreads” last quarter at $16.50 per barrel. Guess where they are now?
$24!
That is pure profit. Fuck, spreads are the highest in recent history and the stocks are still 50% lower from where they were trading in 2007. Look for dog brained money managers to swap out of their exploration oil/gas stocks in exchange for the refiners. This will be my best trade, year to date.
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The Fly is God.
Fly,
When are you going to admit your failure on CCME and the dominance of Citron Research.
Right now. I failed in that I did not believe the pumpers at Citron. However, did I buy CCME?
NEVER.
Will I apologize to Citron?
No, they are scumbags.
However, I do apologize to Muddy Waters for lumping them with Citron. They nailed it again.
Your lotto ticket $PESI could be a monster over the next few days imo
Caught it using PPT keyword search.
LDR could be another one
Easy PESI.
__________
If uranium stocks don’t rebound a lot tomorrow, I’ll eat a food court salad with no dressing.
they wont. they will be shuned not unlike the vigana of a homeless grandmother living on the corner of 42 st and 5th ave, next to the library.
If so, there is a healthy lunch in my near future. But since I bought them 25 and 34% down, there is a reasonable chance I’ll get a quick 10 or 15% flip on them today imo.
Crack Spreads. Fucking Crack Spreads. Dude, I’ve been a fan for a long time, but there are a shitload of people that probably worked their ass off just to provide a living for their kids that are floating face down in saltwater right now. I know you are a Wall Street guy, and believe me, I’m just as cynical as you according to Mrs. Ol’Jack. But gloating about making money on this shit right now is definitely not classy.
Cheers.
So what are doing reading a fin site Monday night?
Shouldn’t you be doing some charity work or taking care of your wife and kids?
Hypocrite…
What the fuck do you think this is The Red Cross?
Bud, fuck off and do not come here lecturing me about how I should comport myself. At the end of the day, this site is not to make you feel better or to make you happy or sad. I am a market magician and this is what I do.
Go visit some fucking charity site if you want to wallow in your fucking tears.
or better yet, invest the money, make $$$, then donate half to charity, half to porn family crack hoes. Winning!
But what if those idiot PMs, trying to hold onto any gains they may have this year so far, just dump everything…MU, TSO, VLO, SNDK….shoot first, ask questions later.
In a panic, nothing stays up…except Treasuries.
PM will hold up better than usual. There’s never been a crisis upon a world so full of debt. Except Rome.
what happened in rome in say 350ad
barbarian clothing shoppes share price soared
Lol.
PM means portfolio manager…not precious metals.
PM’s tanked in ’08. It could happen again with the right circumstances, but longer term they should resume their rise & should bounce faster than other sectors
looks like the navy new things were going to get worse.
Fly, how does all this shit effect oil in your opinion?
oil is a sell.
Japan is the third largest oil consumer (a quarter of US consumption), and this shit just cut a fuckload of their utilization until their drab chairless condos get rebuilt. They don’t have #tora-tora-tora-blood anymore.
Such a nice red night, yet by tomorrow the bulls will probably be kicking us bears once more…I soooooo don’t trust the clam.
Do you ever feel guilty rooting on a panic selloff due to nuclear meltdown? Let me guess the copper markets predicted this two weeks ago.
God bless the Japanese and our stock portfolios.
Sometimes, but this entire rally ala 2009 has been a bubble since it started. The longer it goes the uglier it will be when it finally pops…if it wasn’t Japan, it would have been something else. It has been amazing watch it form and how so many never tried to fix its problems, but instead added to them….. and yes, ouch, the Copper Market topped mid Feb, so did Iron spot ore….billets are down big again tonight in the China Ports.
sorry for my stupid typos…I should proof read and pay attention when I write, oh well.
You’ve been spot on thus far… I guess I’ll take your word on it.
lol…I totally KNOW how wrong I have been, maybe I will continue to feel pain. I really under estimated all of this.
Where’d you get $16.50 margins? I checked the November 10-Q and the Deutsche January Refining Conference presentation. It doesn’t change the thesis, but WNR said in the 10-Q:
“As we entered the summer 2010 driving season, we experienced stronger refining margins in the Southwest. Our overall refining margins improved to $9.74 and $9.31 per throughput barrel in the second and third quarters of 2010, respectively, compared to $6.38 per throughput barrel in the first quarter of 2010. Refining margins for the fourth quarter are expected to be lower than the third quarter of 2010. Through the end of October, the fourth quarter 2010 Gulf Coast 3:2:1 benchmark crack spread has averaged $7.52 per barrel compared to $8.57 per barrel for the third quarter of 2010. Refining margins remain volatile due to current market conditions. “
check your email
Thus far, everything is down in Japan tonight
Except for radiation levels.
Ok, I’m going to hell for this. However, that was already assured with my Bill Simmons death smack post in the PG last summer.
Watching TM and EWJ… anyone have any idea how hurt TM is?
Fly man, I took your advice this morning and loaded up on TSO in the premarket. I am a happy man, and you are more than just another fly on the wall or fly-by-night market blogger.
Your Estate produces wonderful wine.
Ben Bernanke seen getting his UnderDog costume on
Do you think it odd the nikkei is even open?
-12.5%
Keep updated via iBC Financial News
http://ibankcoin.com/news
It’s gonna be a “sell everything” day tomorrow…BID WANTED!
…and along comes a Nuclear Fucking Meltdown, you have got to be shitting me.
Who’d have guessed it took a Nuclear Meltdown to cause a Stock Market Meltdown…
Ben better move that Fed meeting to 8:30 AM…and bring extra QE
“Nukular”
Alpha, did you see the King’s Speech skit on Jimmy Kimmel? Hilarious.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnxNnJYziM
Can’t see it. Link or video is corrupted.
Somehow, someway, this is all Bush’s fault.
It must be bad karma to say, “nukular”.
Hopefully this link works…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnxNnJYziMY
Markets will panic tomorrow. It would be fitting for Japan to start selling Treasuries, just to get the bond market and the stock market in sync.
Agreed, panic tomorrow, everything gets sold….but I think Treasuries will be higher as money looks to park somewhere “safe”…for now.
Why not gold? Food? Water? Pharmceuticals?
alpha
Just dont think those are liquid enough, to move the huge sums.
You also need to remember that these guys are all in cohots together, major spikes in gold or silver would be a shift, a new signal showing a loss of faith in Tbills or dollars. That will hurt them in the long run, Japan wants a stronger dollar, its in there economic interest.
Those iBC reporters are too close to the reactors. They must pull back now and don respirators for Gods sakes.
I bought them Hazmat suits from COSTCO. They will be fine.
new meaning to “cheap suit”
How do you entice someone to fight a nuclear fire?
Thinking the same thing…talk about Kamikaze.
“Hey you, take that fire hose and go spray it on that nuclear reactor”…how much you get paid for that?
Maybe it’s like Joe vs. the volcano. Volunteers are terminally ill with a “brain cloud”.
the japanese have a gene altered by the Heroshima days, they can can handle a full25% more rads then the average person
Duty, honor, country.
You have to admire people who put themselves in harms way.
Scotty, Scotty, can you read me? The rad level is climbing – do something – there is red everywhere. Just do something man!
Berkshire Hathaway sold billions worth of Nikkei put options on very long durations, lucky for Buffet they’re European style. Hugh Hendry on the other hand, probably has a part of himself in his other hand.
Any word on how much exposure Berkshire has as a reinsurer for Japanese P&C insurers?
No clue, can’t find anything either. I know AFL gets 75% of revs from their Japanese segment but they might be covered. Fitch said most of the losses will be Japanese domestic insurers. Saw this note today too: After the Kobe earthquake of 1995, insured losses totaled $3.5 billion, although economic losses were close to $100 billion.
And apparently you don’t have to hear Gilbert Gottfried quacking anymore because he got canned by AFL after writing this on twitter: “I just split up with my girlfriend. But like the Japanese say, ‘They’ll be another one floating by any minute now.’ and ‘Japan is really advanced. They don’t go to the beach. The beach comes to them.'”
I’m just getting geared up for a little madness, m’self.
Long coin.
__________
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vi00a6LE5uc
This is what Ben does if you keep betting against him.
QE3
And all I have is 100 TZA from last thusrday piker style 🙂
Does Fly stil own BORN?
Is coal the “winner”?
http://www.businessinsider.com/coal-winner-from-nuclear-crisis-2011-3
Are we really about to see another recovery during overnight trade? Japan was down 14%, now only down 8%…Dow futures were way down, now down just a little over 200 with S&P’s down 25 or so. For the love of pizza slices, can we just get a good 5-10% panic day?! I am going to vomit if this market is only down 10 on the S&P when the pre-market opens at 8. Seriously, where is the real deal panic in this market?!
QE
The Nikkei is almost down a G right now. Can’t even believe it.
BUY BUY BUY!!!! This is the time to BUY!!!!
The worst of the crisis is upon us right now and sometime late tomorrow it will begin to dawn on everyone that the nuclear crisis in Japan is not that bad…. get in before that moment.
Imagine if the natural disaster hit the US; all the blacks would be killing each other and looting
wait that happened already with Katrina
back to watching dancing with the stars now
we crash today. too much panic
On the bright side, you found your fucking space bar.
Hahahaha. (That’s long form ROFL)
Nice one. Now if that doofus could find his 3rd grade grammar books we would be ok
Well Im glad as fuck i raised cash yesterday…i give the fly thanks for that, since i did it largely because he stepped aside.
Two, i hope the positions i have left don’t get ape raped.
too late — my positions in FXI and EWZ have fallen down murderholes. Portfolio is down 3% on those two positions alone.
I thought you were a bear. Make up your mind.
most of my trading is done mechanically and is basically long only. i do it mechanically because i am a bear, and being a bear doesn’t pay.
And this is why I turned into a daytrader.
And thanks to Fly I was in and out of a couple of refiners (last time I traded these was never) and out of a long SMH by 10:45AM yesterday.
I would look for more in and out entries but have to drive my 80 year old mother in law to the airport.
Thinking of making her hitchhike.
Everything is going to get blown today, including Fly lovely refineries and my lovely steelmakers.
In this sea of red, I will look to raise cash by selling off gold/silver miners, and buy retailers on dips. With commodities crashing down, these guys are in the zone again.
In the early pre-market MU is down only about .35%.
I guess no Japan plants like TXN which will take an earnings hit for the plant closure in Japan.
MU now down over 3%.
The weakness in the Dax today, 4%-5%, is very surprising…we had bee very closely linked to it lately.
Apple down 3%, breaking its 50-day…we are in “sell what you can” mode.
PWER and SOL headed higher amongst all the turmoil!
Winner!
I think at some point today, we’ll be down 450 points in the Dow.
Fly am I still banned?