Let me be clear: I am bearish on world markets while nuclear power plants threaten to turn one of the world’s biggest and most vibrant city into a wasteland. I do not care about bounces, for I am good enough to make coin in any market.
I strongly advise all of those who value my opinion to refrain from buying dips, like idiots driving in ice cream trucks, especially while the country of Japan is vapor-lock shut down.
You thought Lehman was a big deal? You thought the “Asian Contagion” of the 90’s was hard?
You haven’t seen anything yet.
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2 advisors i trust: le fly & wu tang financial http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qid_WGBrQjA
We all hope it never comes to that Fly…Nikkei is currently up 4.4%
NIKKEI is at lunch. I suggest you keep updated via the new Ibc news wire. No one does it better
do all asian mrk break for lunch?
For Lunch,Yes, I think USA should do that too. Japan had a Dead Cat Bounce to try to stay over 9000 …just like Copper is trying to stay over 9000 on the LME. Shanghai Comp had rally led by copper and coal too. I agree with Fly, of course, this could get really really ugly.
God please no. If people want an hour off, they should just close the market an hour earlier. That way I don’t have to sit around twiddling my thimbs for an hour in the middle of the day.
you could go for lunch?
I don’t need to “go for lunch”, I’m perfectly able to eat a sandwich at my desk. Waste of time.
Yes, although Hong Kong is shortening their 2 hour lunch (!!!!) to 1.
Short covering!
Indeud.
from the fine folks at jpm:
Japan faces a lot of challenges, such as poor demographics, ongoing deflationary pressures and the worst debt dynamics in the world. However, as we wrote last August, Japan’s domestic debt market is held 93% domestically, rather than relying on the kindness of strangers (like the U.S. or parts of Europe). Japan also has the ability to mobilize the investment accounts of nationalized banks and insurance companies (Yucho, Kampo), which have accumulated over 300 trillion yen of JGBs in the last decade. Certainly, Japan cannot afford for interest rates to rise. As we showed in the piece (1), Japan’s ratio of interest expense to tax revenue would rise to over 50% of government revenues if rates rose by 2% across the board. It seems to us that should Japan run out of domestic savings to finance its debt, that it would be forced to monetize it by printing their way out.
listened in on a call where a strategist suggested that the nuke piece was not a worry at all.
had to disconnect when he also suggested that Chernobyl only had 100, yes 100 deaths related to the melt downand fall out – lost all cred at that point.
this is going to be epic, we have yet to experience serious after shocks.
I’m gonna go, ah, get the papers get the papers.
good fellas?
This would cripple Tokyo.
Mr Fly, I want to express my appreciation for not only your insights but of all the blogers you have put together here. There is something for everyone. This site has added value for everyone. Thanks. Also was wondering are you related to steve the neighbor?
No, but my neighbors name is Steve, which is weird
Chernobyl only had 56 or 57 deaths related to the fallout. The statistics are accessible on the U.N.
But 200 000 forced abortions.
And I had heard the number 4000 when related to Chernobyl deaths.
Cash is King here… day trades with tight stops… that’s my plan for the immediate future…
Damn, never seen you scared like this, not even in 2008.
yep yep
JC is angry
http://www.thenation.com/article/159234/fukushimas-spent-fuel-rods-pose-grave-danger
“The Fukushima Daiichi plant has seven pools dedicated to spent fuel rods. These are located at the top of six reactor buildings – or were until explosions and fires ravaged the plant. On the ground level there is a common pool in a separate building that was critical damaged by the tsunami. Each reactor building pool holds 3,450 fuel rod assemblies and the common pool holds 6,291 fuel rod assemblies. Each assembly holds sixty-three fuel rods. In short, the Fukushima Daiichi plant contains over 600,000 spent fuel rods – a massive amount of radiation.”
“The spent rods give off considerable amounts of “decay heat” and thus must be submerged in constantly circulating water. Expose them to air for a day or two, and they begin to combust, giving off large amounts of radioactive cesium-137, a very toxic, long-lasting, aggressively penetrating radioactive element with a half-life of thirty years. When cesium-137 it enters the environment, it essentially acts like potassium and is taken up by plants and animals that use potassium.”
Never seen you panicking like this ever.
so my guess is that either you’re wrong — which is highly unlikely
or you’re panicking because your time machine runs on nuclear power and what is happening will most definitely affect you getting raw material therefore incapacitating your travel plans. 🙂
somewhat of good news though… futures are Up as of now.
Sad times.
Agree Fly. How in the fuck is Japan going to rebuild when their debt vs. GDP was 200% before the quake? More money printing is not good although I am sure the world will give Japan a pass for awhile to turn things around.
Longer term I think they are fucked economically. God bless those people. It’s absolutely tragic.
These are unprecedented times.
They can always try Pearl Harbour again.
Japan’s PPT goes into action:
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20110316a1.html
The Fed has been funneling money to the PDs in order to keep the US markets propped up. Why wouldn’t Japan’s PPT do the same thing? The truth is that the BOJ has been buying stock shares for years:
2/09-?Bank of Japan to spend £8bn buying shares held by banks
The Bank of Japan, the country’s central bank, said it would spend up to one trillion yen (£8bn) to buy shares held by commercial banks as part of efforts to ease a credit crunch in Asia’s biggest economy.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/4444159/Bank-of-Japan-to-spend-8bn-buying-shares-held-by-banks.html
I remember this aspect of the Fly, but it’s been a couple years, and before the PPT. Something about warnings on the level of a nuclear sub’s command center lit up to the degree of DEFCON 1, and more!
The upside to these kinds of rare events, is that a lot stands to be learned from the pros here. The sort of appropriate conduct that might come in handy 35 years from now.
Also, I’d be interested in a poll from one of the bloggers regarding reader sentiment.
So Japan is going to call its money home to rebuild. This leads to declines in everybody elses stock markets, a collapse in the bond market, and downward pressure in commodities. However, doesn’t the subsequent rise in interest rates and everybody printing “funny money” eventually lead to purchasing PM’s as a store of value….(sorry, I know you hate them Fly)
“However, doesn’t the subsequent rise in interest rate………eventually lead to purchasing PM’s as a store of value”
Just the opposite. The rise of interest rates is the enemy of PMs. Don’t you remember how Volcker spiked rates to kill the rise in value of gold and sliver in 1980?
rising interest rates is due to selling of fixed income as they have a correlation of -1 . so when they print money and buy securities, it’s doubly inflationary due to “new money” and buying of treasury securities.. but that equals lower rates and yes, higher precious metal attraction
the dilemma is that if japan seriously starts to sell u.s. securities, mr beard is going to have to seriously start to up his buying
That is by far the most likely scenario.
How does the old saying go? If you can keep you head while others are losing it, you don’t understand the situation. Dip buyers will be punished.
Think about this dip buyers. No power no production. Rolling blackouts = countries like, oh, Zaire in 1980’s. Build more power plants? Yeah in a few years.
BTW, great commentary over in PPT12631. Stay safe protect capital.
so everyone who thought scott blier was full of it, wished they listened now………………………..on top of all the “other” bullshit.
I’m pretty sure most who thought Scott was full of it (I wasn’t one of them) rode the part that Scott missed and made tons of money, and then sold when the market started faltering. I don’t think they wish anything.
Of course everyone timed their sales perfectly, right at the peak!
Senor Fly. Steve The Neighbor is driving us crazy in your shed. He is what ,Steve would say, is Meshugeneh.
Remove him or else we will go back to Mexico and you will have to pay real wages to a lawn service.
You are being overly dramatic.
HOusing starts were hideous. Biggest year on year drop since 1984. PPI . 1.8 vs. .7 expectation. Nice job bearded clam….Prick
Nate Dogg is dead at 41. ….. the world is coming to an end.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWUMSPekHBE
http://www.newser.com/story/114245/nate-dogg-dead-long-beach-rapper-passes-away-at-41.html?utm_source=9at9&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20110316
Lol