Fuck you pussies. I am not shorting anything, nor hedging. After having extensive discussions today, regarding “to hedge or not to hedge,” I’ve opted to continue riding in my car made from dynamite sticks, heading for the fucking Sun. Today was a down day, live with it you spoiled brats. I contend, we are still in a “long only” market, as TVIX is today’s biggest winner. If you thought VXX was bad, wait until you get a hold of TVIX.
Look, I sold out of JST, HRBN and 20% of NILE, in order to raise cash to 15%. However, I am not worried about this sell off continuing, not in the least. Like it or not, we are in a bull market. What do people do in bull markets?
Answer: buy stocks.
Will the bull market end today?
Answer: positively no.
You should expect wild gyrations to occur when bull markets correct. Back in 1999-2000, I remember seeing people get wiped the fuck out during corrections. They are swift and deadly. However, they present opportunities for people who have liquidity. You can buy the margin calls of your fellow idiot day trader, if you are solvent. So the key here is to build your position to endure a “worst case scenario.” You do this by having a plan. Right now my plan is to raise cash. Should the market continue lower, I will take some of my cash and hedge. But I will not hedge now, after just 1 bad day, all the while the dollar is down, oil is unscathed and large cap names are unchanged to up.
Where are you going to put money? Bonds?
I don’t think so.
Although I recognize the need to cleanse the market of excess. You know, the sort of fuckery that led to extreme valuations on a plethora of tech stocks. I still think this market should be given the benefit of the doubt. Each and every time it looked like the world was about to end, BAM, out comes “The Clam” with his magic wand to make things right.
Into the bell, I added to my BORN position.
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I’ll bet one dollar that the market may go down tomorrow.
11th vote
If your buying power is 2x cash and you are in equities for 100% of your cash position, do you consider yourself to be 50% cash?
Sorry, that Question was for Fly.
No. My long position is 85% equities, 15% cash, a very prudent allocation.
I am still psychopath leveraged in my personal.
I got a reservation for Dorsia tonight
15% cash is not enough and you had plenty of time to raise more until now
Good day
Bring your raincoat.
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Today was a murderhole. Did I get that right?
It was for me. But really it was outsized recent gains partly wiped away.
For those of you who to pose questions to the great and mighty Dr Fly, do not look directly upon him. Show him the respect that he so richly deserves by lowering your gaze to your shoelaces while addressing Him.
well then,you better go into the fly den and tell him tomorrow will be fucking worse. and the bearded clam wont do shit..go to more cash
I was invited to a New England Bearded Clam Bake, do I attend?
yes, but dont forget to bring lemons
and your overcoat!
The fed 180 puts I bought yesterday on AMZN looking so pretty right now!!
AMZN falls to 180 fo sho
You rock, have faith in the all-mighty clam!
I just harken back to what my dear old sweet Grenny used to say:
When all the world’s a funnel, you never see the thresher.
(Note: New Ursine Metaphor Coming Tonight, after the Johnnies game)
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You missed your chance to liquidate, we are headed for a bloodbath of epic proportions.
Ruh roh, I’m on the same side of the aisle as my butane soaked buddy, Huggster!
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me too … tightened stops and added some inverse ETF’s … expecting this to be a longer drawn out affair than the usual 5% correction …. GL Fly!
I picked up some zsl on your reco
I go long when fly goes long VXX. Not a moment sooner.
You are quite happy today, then.
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“epic” is a homo-word.
how about “dastardly”
as in “a bloodbath of dastardly proportions”
10 years ago I shingles houses for “epic roofing” as a summer job.
>>Back in 1999-2000, I remember seeing people get wiped the fuck out during corrections. They are swift and deadly. However, they present opportunities for people who have liquidity.<<
Yes, they presented the "opportunity" of 2000-2002!
No one here said we won’t ever trade down. Go see my 2011 predictions.
It’s just very dangerous to “buy dips” when you know (as you seem to) that the entire rise is built on unsustainable fundamentals. That’s the kind of “musical chairs” that crushed a lot of people in 2000-2001, and there’s really no way to know if this is the “first dip” or the beginning of the “ultimate” one.
“That’s the kind of “musical chairs” that crushed a lot of people in 2000-2001”
The Fly is not “a lot of people”
The Clamburgler is King,
until he isn’t
& his head rolls
Grad school was maybe a big mistake. Haven’t even had time to read 2011 predictions. This is costing me real money being out of the market after a 40% run in 3 months this summer.
Changed my gravatar from “Fuck You I’m All In” to a more appropriate “Grizzley Adams” based on today’s action and OEM’s post tonight: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/01/19/wednesday-update-271/
“The Minor wave 5 rally, from the Minor 4 low at SPX 1262, displays five waves into yesterday’s 1296 high: wave 1 1277, wave 2 1270, wave 3 1287, wave 4 1280 and wave 5 1296. This may have been the top of the six month uptrend. During the entire Intermediate wave five advance, from the Int. wave four low at SPX 1173, the largest pullbacks have been between 13 and 16 points. Should this pullback significantly exceed this range the probablility of an uptrend top at SPX 1296 increases substantially. Keep in mind the SPX has been recently trading into a heavy Fibonacci resistance cluster between 1289 and 1306. The short term OEW charts have swung to negative for the first time since the rally off the Minor wave 4 low. This typically indicates a five wave structure of some degree has just completed. Objectively, short term support is now at SPX 1262 which also coincides with the OEW 1261 pivot. A break below this support area would display a full retracement of Minor wave 5, adding more OEW evidence to an uptrend top.”
From a prior OEW post to gain a perspective on today’s post:
“We had projected this initial Primary wave III uptrend, Major wave 1, would last six months. It is in its sixth month now. We also projected a price target near the OEW 1313 pivot in Jan11. The market hit and closed at SPX 1293 on Friday [and 1296 yesterday]. We’re very close to our projection and have been cautious on this market now for about a week.”
>>> “When the uptrend does end, a Major wave 2 correction will follow. We’re expecting that decline to be in the neighborhood of 9% in the SPX” <<<
"Interestingly enough, a decline of this magnitude [would] drop the SPX down into the 1170?s, from current levels. This price area also happens to be where the fourth wave of a lesser degree (Intermediate wave four @ SPX 1173) bottomed. This is the Elliott Wave in action, quantified by OEW. After the Major wave 2 correction ends a Major wave 3 uptrend will take the market to new bull market highs."
People like statistics. It makes them think they know what is going to happen,
Yeah but this guy’s been spot on …. stats and all
I remember those predictions –something about leading up to the end of the world as we know it in 2012.
Do U really believe all the Mayan 2012 stuff or was that just for laughs? Bill Maher says “What do I need with a Mayan calendar? Am I afraid that my Mayan girlfriend will miss her Mayan period and be pregnant?” The Mayans may have been a fairly advanced civilization for their time, & they may have known a lot of stuff– but what will happen in 2012 seems to me not to be one of the things they knew. I understand they knew some good herbal medicinal remedies though.
Bill Maher is always good for some drug addled thinking.
If people didn’t get short YESTERDAY, they missed most of the downmove.
One must ANTICIPATE these corrections – and not wait til l”tomorrow”.
All that will do is get you whipsawed.
“they missed most of the downmove.”
Ok Carnac … we shall know soon enough I suspect. Hope you aren’t addicted to margin should your prediction prove to be unrigged.
good to be calm cool and collective fly… ultimately big ben won’t let us down. i like to sell now ask questions later myself but this has been a strong uptrend that won’t go down easily.. wouldn’t be surprised to see a gap up / short squeeze tmrw morning for old times sake.
We’re down 1% and you guys are convinced we are never going to bounce again? Lmao…
Not only that shedder, but the DOW was down a mind numbing 12.64 fucking points. I thought Fly had serious traders/investors follow him.
Right, because the Dow is such an eggselent market tell.
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For those of you that find a pullback in January surprising, check your charts. We have had 8 pullbacks/corrections happen in January over the past 11 years (one occurred in Feb and one in March – 2008 was already in a sustained downtrend). If this is the beginning of a correction/pullback, the average size of said pullback/correction was 11.51% over that same period. The avg correction lasted 25.5 trading days with a low of 13 and a high of 41. If you believe that this is the beginning of a similar type of pullback/correction GO GET YOURSELF FUCKING PROTECTION. You have been educated so don’t act surprised else you get banned (if I had that power).
I purchased some TROJAN today for protection.
Try Noacetal. Works every time.
We may be in for a few more down days before resuming uptrend. But you know what is going to save the uptrend? Earnings. We are just getting into the heart of earnings releases and they are going to be surprisingly strong. Listen to a few conf calls, things are improving.
Yeah, FFIV missed revenue by $1.7M this qtr and undiluted earnings were 88 cents vs est’d 83 cents while projected revenue is estimated at $275-280M next qtr vs estimates calling for $280.7M and the stock got slammed for another 22% AH …. Can’t wait for more earnings reports! Oh, and don’t forget, going forward it will be a lot harder to beat last years Qtrly reports than it was this year vs 2008-09′ … just saying.
I swear someone every quarter says that… “yeah, well goodluck beating next years comparisons”.
Son, there is a diff between improving economics and improving stock prices. The latter leads the former, not the other way around.
Although I do not expect a vicious correction, it would not surprise see to see us testing 1200-1200 SP500 and 11,000 DOW by mid Feb.
Agree to that. Actually the only reason I am bullish this time is because I expect them to be stronger than expected. The only concern I have is that someday these higher commodities prices must find their way into EBIT, lowering it. Unless, of course, the companies found a way to pass those costs onto consumers.
Why, is there something wrong with being in bonds?
There’s nothing wrong with being in bonds, Scummily Bucket, but there MAY be something wrong with being in Clammes!
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You’ve been DeMarked.
I saw he is calling a top…Would be nice and would make sense, but it has made sense for awhile, but Fed is coking up the bulls.
So does that mean you’re bullish now … LOL!
Yawn.
yawn 2.0