We’re going back to test the “flash crash” lows, AND MORE. The magic term for you little ham and eggers is “austerity” and how it pertains to raping consumerism. You are watching deflation take hold in Europe, right before your stupid eyes; and you will see that same thing happen here, as states raise taxes and cut back on spending. After all, it’s their constitutional duty.
To be clear, I am not arguing against the Jakegint’s of the world, for the inflation story is most certainly still on the table. I just think, before we get to that, we’re gonna get to this.
Nevertheless, I am not interested in getting overly aggressive on the downside. I just don’t feel like shorting and putting my stomach through the meat grinder. At this moment in time, for me, a hedged approach is my best bet. If that means riding POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] down every day, so be it. My discipline is much more than you can understand, mainly because of my “big game” thinking.
I treat my stocks, like a general treats a private in a war. They are all little “nothings” to me, placed to serve my best interests. A downward spiraling stock, like POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , may not be for you. However, for me, I need to own that fucker when the market rebounds, for its rebound will tear the tits off short sellers.
In summary, I’m handing out mental beat downs, at Le Office de Le Fly. Come get some.
NOTE: By the way, bring your margin liquidations too. I am most interested in buying them from you.
UPDATE: I sold out of ON Semiconductor Corp. [[ONNN]] @ $7.59.
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fig
Fly– lets not forget to be long ammo and rice..and short gay cat fondlers like D kneale…good day. Hershey PA, WTF is wrong with you….
Actually, Hershey was perfect. No lines and the kids loved it.
Hershey PA = Fat slobs and their skank wives and kids..
Yes, which is why I went in May when no one was there. I had the park to myself, literally.
well played then…
You had the parkas to yourselves, too.
What good is going to Hershey if you can’t analyze the interesting tattoos?
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Do they still do the Willy-Wonka-esque factory tour with the chocolate river and all that?
I loved Hershey Park as a kid. and Great Adventure. and the Point Pleasant board walk.
Good times.
That actually got moved to Mexico with the rest of the operations and goes by “Río de Chocolate”. People don’t drink from it much now, though…
Again FISAM. And for the hundreditysecond [sic] time, thanks for VXX.
if government spending decreases materially enough to induce forward deflation then maybe we’ll approach some form of stasis as the government jamming an economy with reckless spending is patently unsustainable –
that said, the cost of basics, not the price of housing will drive inflation – the vast preponderance of people can’t afford the houses they’re in, much less anything else –
recognizing the implied demand, these few remaining demand outlets will lead the wave which is most dangerous because those price models never get taken back –
add to that the swelling ranks of food stampers, and the government subsidizing the higher prices of basics and there is no reason to race to the bottom of competitive pricing because the government uses more money, not effective cost controls to manage through wasteful spending –
see: social security, medicare –
the real deflationary aspect to observe will be further middle class credit deterioration as these poor rubes have started running up consumer credit in observance of the stock market failing to realize that there have been no structural improvements in the economy –
see: capital one’s quarterly report –
ps – in french, de + Le = du
I am NOT French!
L’Office Du Fly.
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We have deflation because people are scared as shit. They are hording their money in bond funds paying no interest. The gov’ts are printing even more money to get it into circulation, but banks keep grabbing it up as the FDIC continues to raise financial ratios on the banks and loans keep defaulting. Meanwhile, the fuckers who bot the houses still live there for free because the banks don’t want to kick them out and recognize the loan losses.
Eventually, all that new money has to explode out onto the market, or so one would think anyways.
Break out the FAZolene.
TO THE FAZMOBILE!!
I am sure there are many lovely parks to visit in the ohio basin
Basin? It’s a valley, Geography man.
And in fact, there are quite a few. Tin horn bleaters love that kind of low rent shastola out here.
How do you think I know about the U.S. becoming “Tattoo Nation” and not in the midget Hispanic sense, either?
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Yes, Columbus Ohio is the serial murder capital of the world. I’m sure someone will think of a kiddies theme park based on that.
Adelaide south Australia comes close with slightly more religious repressed undertones that used to spin out from the established protestant churches.
King Cock is God. Do you have your VXX position on?
On and loaded
Fly, do you rate Pfizer, if we drop. It’s trading at $15 ish, book is $12, 90b in equity, (16Bil in cash and short terms) 10 years of 12% free cash growth, 20% average profits over10 years, fcf as not been lower then 4 bil over 10 year period.PE is 15 now. 4.5% div
I have not read the annuals, so not up to speed on on any legals on them.
thoughts on buying them on market drop?
I remember thinking PFE was cheap at ~$25 a few years ago. And, lo: even cheaper today.
Considering that M. Le Fly sees the Dow dropping to 9900, and PFE is a Dow component, what’s your rush?
Tons of pharma names “cheap” here. PFE, BMY, AZN, GSK, MRK….all look like buys with good dividend yields and strong FCF. I think the patent expiration stuff is priced in but they look sick technically.
I’d slowly wade in if you have a longer term horizon in months not days.
“I just think, before we get to that, we’re gonna get to this.”
This is a good point. You don’t necessarily have to chose between the kick in the balls and the poke in the eye: you can have one, and then the other.
“I just don’t feel like shorting and putting my stomach through the meat grinder.”
The trillion dollar nonsense last week shook me out of two shorts (one for a small gain and one for a ~9% loss), but my other two shorts (PXP and AKS) are down decently today. I’m guessing we won’t have another trillion dollar rescue package this week, but we’ll see.
Moob
The best part is chocolate world tour and 3d show. Top notch
As for pfe: why bother?
Still buying GS? Is the plan still 10k shares or are you just holding?
All we have here is new braunfels river, amd lots o beer.
I have not added to gs, still 6k
there is no rush , I am waiting. The reason I am asking fly , is becuase they may have legals, patents expiring etc, I have not read the annual do not know the big picture.
Fly, if market goes down, pfe will also, throw off hugh cash, 30bil ahead of there nearest competitor, will always come up with a new product to drive earnings
Basin, valley, who gives a shit?
Caution!
You are at high risk of offending your not insignificant geology PhD reader base!
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This is where the rubber hits the road. If something isn’t done by powers that be to support the Euro, we will see a free-fall in global markets shortly, led by Eurozone. China seems as it has cracked already as one of their largest client (eurozone) might not be able to buy as much of their crap.
I think the Euro stabilizes here and rallies a little…or at least I hope so for the sake of sanity in the markets. Nobody wants a repeat of late 2008. I’ve said all along that the markets can handle the $ rally to .84-85. Beyond this point the small seams will become huge cracks everywhere you look.
Very short term prognoses; recovery in Euro followed by a 2-3% rally in the Dow.
Longer term, who the fuck knows but it’s not looking good and most of it depends with the developments in the euro-zone. If $1Trillion doesn’t do the trick (and it appears that it won’t, judging by the market reaction) the word ‘chain reaction’ comes to mind. It appears that HHendry just might earn himself some “political capital” here:)
Kennywood Park rocks. Mullets, tats, the best french fries in the world, and coasters!
Oh yeah, I sold everything but VXX and KSS. Fuck this market.
Ah, the Burg, recliner capital of the world – a sedentary heaven. 1968 Kennywood Park. I’m wearing my new 3 inch medallion on a steel chain to impress the girl I’m with (hey, bell bottoms and hippie bling were in). We decide to ride the Thunderbolt, the biggest badass coaster in the park. On the big drop my medallion levitates up off my chest and smacks into my forehead on the way back up – blood spews all over my date. Pandemonium. Not sure I’d want to be a teenager again 🙂 Still love Kennywood though.
I hope R.W. Pellican is making note of all the old fuggers on here.
S&P to 120
Why does Becky Quick not get her snaggle teeth fixed?
Very unusual for a tv person.
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They use her to open cans of tuna in the break room as they huddle around finance glossaries.
LOL, perfect.
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It’s really freaking annoying.
Why doesn’t Melissa Lee get a fuckin’ FACE TRANSPLANT and some D I C T I O N lessons?
When I look at the fastalk-babbling bitch’s mouth, it reminds me of the asshole of my cat parading down the sidewalk, tail raised high.
lol
Are you, by any chance, related to cash n guns?
It’s more European.
Thanks for the target Master Fly.
Magic Term “austerity” …..is it like Pee Wee’s Playhouse and we yell real big? Or more like drinking game and we take a shot everytime we hear it?
Why is austerity in quotes?
Ask Fly, He used it that way…I am just trying to figure out if I can make it a drinking game…makes watching CNBC funnier
What was the ppt intraday low, we must have been close to 2.2 – Space Alien Magician answer to the universe is now 2.36 – do you consider evaluating this intraday?
Where will all the capital go (sellers) – world into strong dollars, TLT, and/or gold?
Anyone seen Moe, as I’m waiting for a rally. His presence swings it from the bear to bull.
Fuck it, I bought some Euro in Asia this morn and added to my long Dollar Yen position. The market is massive short of Euro in the short term. I hate trading against the trend but I think there would be some intervention close by so I put my stop just below today lows at 1.2187.
I ran short Euro as a hedge and bought the pos back on Friday just above these levels, so I didn’t get too hit on stocks net net as I’m long.
This Euro short crap reminds me how everyone was talking about the buck going to zero by the end of this year and I kept warning people that it wasn’t going to happen.
We’re not there just yet, but I think the conventioanl wisdom is that the Euro goes to hell and i don’t wanna be with the consensus trade.
No crash flash for you.
S&P 120
Jake Gint:
At 54ish MON should normally be a little bit of buy here, no, that is unless we’ve stopped eating? What do you reckon.
As per my announcement in the PPT, I’ve been buying 600 shs at a time, and have now doubled my position. Last purchase at $54.17 on Friday.
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IF this Euro ends up in the 1.24s we’re closing higher in stocks.
Where the fuck is Moe. I need conformation before I get to bed.
Dude, what is it– 5 am in Oz right now?
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@Jeremy:
Lately the 2nd Paragraph of The Fly’s pearls of wisdom starts 3/4 of the way over from the left margin.
It makes it more difficult to follow the syntax of Senor Fly’s story of the hour.
I use FireFox 3.6
You’ve prob got ad block pro on.
@ Steven Place
Damn, you’re good, I do use it.
Options and software troubleshooting. Deadly combination.
Thanks.
Welcome to the cock spin zone.
CAP is warming up to go dyson himself.
I’m going to use this bounce to lighten up on some RDN from the low to mid 9s, only to buy some more later, or sell out completely.
Hey jake, down south becky would be called a snaggle toothed motherf_cker, and been done with it. But thats just us down here.
Rand, word to the wise. Wait a couple of months into the new job before you start pounding the Jack at lunch.
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Ha!
Deep out of the money sheister
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/5/17/dykstra-a-no-show.html
Bought a few thousand more June SPY calls today. The ship will not be allowed to sink. Fly, you are getting far too cynical in your own age. We all know Karl et at are right, but not just yet. The midterm elections haven’t even passed yet. Sheeeesh!
Slim
And you are permitted to offer me financial advice because…?
Mel lee has git to have a dirty mouth in and out of bed.
Debrah morgan style.
Here’s my financial advise to the blogospheare.
Pfe is shit.
Done