If you take anything from my blogs, heed my warnings over a cup of boiling hot tea. While drinking the tea, preferably Earl Grey (preferred beverage of all gentlemen, east of Kansas), recall my message in its entirety, not my inane tweets or rapid fire blog posts.
Here are the cliff notes:
- The market is being led around by the daily fluctuations of the Euro.
- Due to detrimental debt concerns, coupled with austerity measures in Europe, the market needs to reprice equities.
- Just because the market is supposed to go lower doesn’t mean it will.
- I have ZERO shorts on my books, but 28% of assets in [[VXX]] .
- I strongly suggest a hedged approach to this market, due to the nonsensical mannerisms of recent trading.
- Day trading is for birds. Think bigger and longer term; God will smile upon you for it.
Today’s reversal was impressive, led by gains in the euro. Nevertheless, I’m not buying into this shit, as I happen to travel through time via time machines and have knowledge of what is coming. Regardless of what you think, sentiment is different now. For a long, long time, we went up, uninterrupted, thanks to improvements in global trade. While all of that is true, ask yourself, what the fuck are the following “global growth” stocks telling us?
Top picks: Eastman Chemical Company [[EMN]] , [[VXX]]
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Global Growth = Sideways at best
OMG Charts!
i would suggest some Tazo Green Tea..the earl grey crap is for Brits with 3 teeth….
28% of assests on VXX…You’ve got balls of steel!
I’ve got a little of it and will add more but not anywhere near double digit exposure.
Did you fail to comprehend the above post? It has nothing to do with testicles made of ferrous material. It’s the time machine……alllllll about the time machine.
That’s a ridiculous amount of charts for someone such as The Fly
Making a point to you snarky fuckers.
Those charts say “Stay away from Linda McCartney’s Grampie’s company!”
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likely not the fly posting here indeud
Does the roll effect in VXX not make it a bit of trade and not a hold?
that the market generals are recruiting new drivers apt at fazmobile operation?
AKS is one of my shorts. Nice little comeback from today’s lows for the longs.
“I strongly suggest a hedged approach to this market, due to the nonsensical mannerisms of recent trading.”
Excellent suggestion. I shall e-mail you demo access to a proprietary hedging tool forthwith, so you can decide if it would make a useful addition to your armamentarium (or that of your followers).
fuck off
thanks dave. will look
4:18 — pre-medicine.
4:52 — post-medicine.
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Perhaps Dr. Fly appreciated my correct usage of the medical term armamentarium.
As for you, Jake, I offer this blog post, Me and LT.
Funny stuff. Guy definitley lived a charmed existance…
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market – equal opportunity hater -longs and shorts equally screwed -depending on what hour you’re looking at.
Cheers!
tripledubdot wealthmiserdotcomforwardslashblog
check it out…”taking it in the shorts”
You should try cutting and pasting the URL or just add it to the “website” field in the comment login.
Police officers are garbage men with guns
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2327-One-City-Where-Citizens-Will-Not-Assist.html
In some sense, that’s not inaccurate.
I highly recommend the earlier work of James Ellroy for reference.
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Last week they were shooting the family dogs in front of the kids, and now they’re shooting the kids. F’d up.
If you have a murderer in your house, the cops may burst in with guns blazing. Your kids may be a risk.
Sorry, that doesn’t cut it. Cops are held to a higher standard, and “Wild West” ain’t it.
Full disclosure — brother’s a cop, multiple uncles are cops. They would agree w. the above statement.
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what are the Chinese doing with gold? what’s their agenda? thanks…
a) Hording it.
b) Depends on whether you are talking the gov’t or the populace. The gov’t is likely trying to diversify it’s reserves away from the dollar concentration (and now, Euro), and the populace is likely trying to guard against infration.
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Infration. HaH! I like that. Very funny in an obtuse sort of way Mr Gint. LOL I can hear them say it that way.
I think it depends on how dangerous the arrestee is expected to be, is he expected to be armed and dangerous? How much danger is anticipated in capturing the guy? And if, as a parent, you allow a guy in your house, and put your kid on the couch in the living room, and the cops are trying to arrest a guy you are harboring in your house, and he is armed and dangerous, you are taking a big risk with your family. Not that it’s okay the child was shot. But do the cops bursting into the house wait to recognize a moving person in the dark smokey house? If it’s the felon do they give that guy a chance to shoot first? These are very tough questions. I have to think the parents are partly at fault for this very sad event.
Denninger should stay out of Detroit politics; it is messy business, where everyone is in the wrong, save for a few minutes when they get national sympathy.
related but slightly ot
Henceforth, police officers will be know as “Revenue Agents”
Color me Up North, sitting cocked, locked and ready to rock, waiting for the inevitable day when Detroit melts down and the roaches head for the hills. That is all.
police comment…freaking classic..damn why didnt I think of that…but I shall use it…many thanks.
X the word “Growth” domestically, as well as Globally.
There is NONE. ZERO.
The only ‘Growth” is found in Deficits, both domestically, as well as Globally.
Indeed.
Ah, my dog X. What a ride.
Notice how VXX was up 2.3% while VIX was down?
That’s what you call space alien magician shit, folks.
I noticed that too…and SMN up the same amount as VXX…..BUT FXP just like .75% up after the night China had…..these etf’s are so messed up.
That’s because the VIX futures are no longer heavily in contango but in slight backwardation.
The VXX is no longer the POS it so recently was.
VIX futures curve is actually flat.
either that or it is what they say it is – nuther flawed etf. hope not I own some too, but reluctantly.
the roll effect in VXX makes it a horrible stock to hold, FLY. VXX uses VIX options which are based on VIX futures, which are based on expectation of where VIX will close on expiration. since VIX is an estimation of 30-day implied volatility with no cash value the VIX futures don’t even track “cash” VIX.
you are essentially buying a derivative of a derivative of a derivative of an estimation.
you’d be better off buying puts on the S&P 500 and get the direct protection as well as the exposure to volatility.
OTM puts on SPY were pretty cheap when vol was lower, before the flash crash, the worst of the Greece nonsense etc. Fortunately, I picked a few up back then.
Ta
So the worm turns. Who would have known?? Hmmmm
Jeff
I am better off in vxx for liquidity reasons
Fly, how do you justify holding on to long positions in such a f’d-up market? What I mean is, why buy all these longs with the VXX hedge, when you are basically going to end up near 0 in the end. Yes you can zig and zag to end up with small gains on both sides, but realistically your gains are limited by holding offsetting positions and in the end, is it really worth all the effort?
Why not sit back and wait until this crap sorts itself out? If the market goes up, get long. If it falls to crap, get short.
I realize day trading for you doesn’t jive with your clients’ strategy, nor is it probably anywhere as realistic to day trade your account vs. the size of mine; with that said, I can’t justify picking either direction for any period of time (other than time marked in hours), since the market changes its mind daily.
It goes to the thesis of whether this will be like 2004 or 2008.
Berkshire buys into BDX…I became familiar with these guys back in my Baltimore days. If I was a PE shop I’d take these guys out, pretty it up around the edges, and flip it to a strategic…maybe not the best timing in terms of the overall market, but these guys will continue to perform for years to come so a patient owner will be rewarded.
Rosen
Just because i hate the market does
Not mean it will adhere to my demands. Over the past week, my blend of long shorts
Is working nicely, enabling me to squeeze out .5-1.00 gains daily. At some point i will get more agressive.
But, for now, i am still suspect of the market and
How it likes to kick shorts in the nads daily. My approach is supreme now
Their telling us to buy them. I am picking up some of these monster size businesses at lower prices. How often do we see fcx in the 60’s ? Fwlt at 25?
I totally agree. This is not even close to 2008 and that was also an overreaction. IF you are medium to long term trading, you are buying now. Remember, he missed most of the runup, if you read the history. Peace out. 100% long….
If memory serves, FCX was about 1/4 the price a year and a half ago…I’ll wait until it gets a little closer. You notice copper prices lately? …something ain’t kosher around the world.
Fuck yeah!!! Buy them
Fuck yeah, 100% long on margarine!!! Crack a beer and rejoice
Do we have to suck because of the Euro’s?
The detroit cops lied about the shooting, it was all on film.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_police_search_girl_killed;_ylt=Aje0t3NehXJl6WOsQrfN._Jh24cA;_ylu=X3oDMTNodXR1YTRzBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTAwNTE4L3VzX3BvbGljZV9zZWFyY2hfZ2lybF9raWxsZWQEY2NvZGUDbW9zdHBvcHVsYXIEY3BvcwM3BHBvcwM3BHNlYwN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcmllcwRzbGsDYXR0eXZpZGVvc2hv
Market is not made up of 4 stocks.
If global growth is dead there will be other stories to chase.
It’s always been that way.
I just named 4 companies that are vital to global growth, Obviously, you know dick from doorknobs about the market. Please refrain from embarrassing yourself further.
And this will determine the fate of the stockmarket.
That made sense (not).
Hey fly,
K-Mart turn out graduates as well, but NOONE knows their names.
I cannot gurantee much. But i will guarantee this: thw mkt cannot go up without steel. Stop playing gordon gekko. You idiots dont know what you are doing.
Steel has hit a short term bottom as of today. The likes of VALE, X, AKS, MT, RTP and CLF will propel the sector higher by >5% from today’s low by the end of the week.
My micro cap picks & shovels play on the steel industry is up today. They just announced a big expansion of their manufacturing capacity. Were building everything in Western Australia, where pipe fitters are making six figures now. Just bought a piece of ground 8x as big in Indonesia to build a factory there.
Going up. Nice bottom was made today for the short term.
So going up
lol…hey, notice Shanghai Copper Futures doing the samething as it’s been doing….and Shanghai comp not buying the dip. Yet. Stupid ZEW Data from Germany could still come out high….if not, that could be the straw to break this silly thing.
Fly,
I like you better when you are bullish like cramer.
j,
any advice on where/how to learn a little bit about currency trading?
‘ reading the idiot books now
Euro getting fucking smashed again. Sweet dreams, assholes
Alvari
Fuck off
Thank you sir – may I have another?
Fi
Get a fucking job at an ib. You fuckers need industry experience
Copper getting lit up
Why must Kansas be the cut-off for “tea-drinkers”? No way in hell Missourians drink tea. Also, I was under the impression that coffee (GMCR) was still the divine nectar of the stocktrader…
Fly, thanks for the profit on VXX. I’m also glad to have already locked that coin in.
and, because I love you: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfr40TDfmM0&feature=related
I’ve got a feeling this is gonna be a good week!
There’s an uncut version of that, showing the girls nekkid…
God bless heaterman
Where will the major “investment banks” distill profits when stocks and markets aren’t going up 40 pts. per day this quarter?
The short side, of course.
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Prepare to be surprised:
GS lost $2.7B (pre-tax earnings) in trading and principal investments for 2008 after making $13B in 2007.
Hmmmm… I wonder if 2008 was an unusual year for the capital markets…?
Let me check my day planner….
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Unusual in that we knew The Fly went short and hit new all time highs for his managed accounts but GS lost money? He had a SAMplanner.
We don’t know what goes on in the Sigma X black box/trading desks but I’m certain when the markets move and stay outside of 1-2 standard deviations the robots get broke.
With these volatile moves in equities and FICC (Fixed Income, Currencies, Commodities), I’d bet that GS trading desks are not outperforming. Unless of course their nerdtron masters birthed smarter more accepting bots and retired the old ones into auto-responding “what page are you referring to?” congressional hearing bots. We will see.
Remember, in opportunistic times, it pays to chase the best quality every time.
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Jake
Detroit is devoid of any honor
Honour? I think it may very well be devoid of any civilization!
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In a good share of the city that is very treu. At the least it is a very different civilization than what most would describe as the norm.
Gentlemen east of Kansas? West of Kansas nobody cares. Kansas is all good.
Fly,
Good call on SINA, up 11% in just a few days.
Slim
GS blows monkey chunks
fwiw, Germany Zew came out below est, but above the rumor 39….would have been cool if 39 would have hit…always next month…economist suck at seeing the true market, yet everyone trust them…can’t figure that one out at all.
‘Notice how VXX was up 2.3% while VIX was down?
That’s what you call space alien magician shit, folks”
its puff, puff, pass you fucking up the rotation
“Gentlemen east of Kansas? West of Kansas nobody cares. Kansas is all good”
we are not in kansas in anymore. we are in the space alien magician machine heading towards who knows the fuck what… carry on
anyone seen the GMXR car today? looks like people are SQUEEZING in…
Indeud
That was on my watch list for shorting but I hadn’t pulled the trigger yet. Might be worth revisiting after the squeeze.
GOING LONG NAT GAZ!!I Just went long 4000 WTI @ $9.93
Check out y Blog if you want
http://henryfoolspicks.wordpress.com/2010/05/18/going-long-nat-gaz-with-wti/
Time to get 10X long with es mini-me bitchez!
signed
dr. evil bitchez