If my title offends you that means you are, by my definition, “stupid.” While you wait for “macroeconomic trends” to take hold of the economy, I will sit here, in my luxurious leather chair, knee deep in long bonds. Why, you ponder?
Well, for one, I do not subscribe to the belief that sovereign wealth funds fish for yield, when purchasing our debt. If you believe the Chinese will stop buying treasuries because the yield is too low, well then, you might as well kill yourself now and get it over with already. I hear a lot of people suggest gold as the investment of “safety.” However, I contend, with great vigor, gold is a suckers bet, readily and purposely manipulated downward by our government overlords.
If you think it’s hard betting against “The Fly,” good luck going the other way on the Empire of the United States.
Yes, it’s true, I do not believe free market forces will win. Yes, it’s true, the Fed cannot raise rates now, without hem-locking the already struggling workforce and knee-capping the real estate market. So, as long as people suck off the government tit and real estate values stay depressed, spreads need to be wide, in order to help banks hide their losses, with the hopes of “growing out of them.” Believe me, I am well aware that the consensus opinion of investors out there is contrary to my own. So, don’t bother debating the issue with me, for I am in a world of my own.
Today’s sell off was nothing special. Like I’ve been saying over and over, ad nauseam, we have very little upside left, with a good 10% downside.
Then again, what the fuck do I know? I’m just some guy here on the internets, spewing opinions around like trash in the S. Bronx. Go buy some [[FAS]] up here. See if I care.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LE1feUs5CAE 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
FIG
well, TLT should go higher as Vix,Yen, and Dollar continue squeezing up here.
And IYR receives the hammer of death.
However, my stupidity is strictly due to my fluoride intake–which i prefer to partake of on an intravenous basis.
Two Requests:
#1 – Bring back the pelican
#2 – Make another short film.
Apple is up but Orange Juice is down. Coincidence? I think not. The only thing to do here is sell TLT puts.
what’s sugar doin?
“hem-locking” Copyright The Fly 2010
nice
Add that one to the iBC Dictionary
Wouldn’t you agree that someday/year “free market forces will win”?
Thank God the market went down……………
Fly’s prediction , though six weeks late has come true.
Rejoice
Fly, I do not care who you are, just that you are.
I’ll keep leaching as long as you keep publishing. Some day, I might contribute something of value back. But I doubt it. Having spent 25 years not thinking for myself it doesn’t some naturally.
But here goes….
FTSE goes up to make things not look as bad. UK election equals hung parliament or Torries win. Market and business books profits, sends market crashing making pension holes look terrible (which they are) to ensure enough public approval for “harsh” changes to public sector contracts / pay AND business breaks ie regulatory and tax relief .
FTSE starts heading back up after 20% fall and large scale changes implemented via a gun, visa vi massive fall in stock market as a gun to the head.
Nobody gives a fuck about your bullshit country. England hasn’t been shit since George Washington laid the smack down at Yorktown. Believe.
ROFL.
I would say, rather “post-(U.S.) Civil War” but funny, nonetheless.
One cannot discount the lasting effects of Admiral Horatio Nelson, long may his memory be honoured (sic).
___________
“Laid the Smackdown at Yorktown” — lol.
That warrants the return of this classic…
__
lol! my day is going awesome now!
TLT might actually pay out finally, the move today could be the start of something bigger…
TLT should have support around here or the bondies will get flowtecked to pre and early 2000 levels–that just ain’t gonna happen because the bondies carry the ball; equities are the punk water boys. PIMPCO also is not getting into the equity business no matter what–they’ll keep pumpin the fixed income lot they way they have been all along. You are correct good sir on all of your points. Today was just an algo reboot.
Didn’t bill gross recommend equties last week?
Didn’t he cut down his treasury holdings?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajmVnaeC5wZk
You may be right. Hugh (and you?) think we are Japan. Their rates stayed at zero for 20 years.
But a big difference is that Japan financed their debt by selling it to thrifty, safety-seeking, currency risk-averse, Japanese citizens. We have to entice foreigners to by our shit. Our FED is de-balled.
damn was last year more fun than this year to be an investor. By this time last year I had gotten terrified and drawn down, got up on the nova chemical buyout, drawn down again, and wound up way up on my way to way up, with more scares to come in may and july. nonstop thrill ride.
This is outright boring by comparison.
I would be shocked if long bonds didn’t have another leg up before any kind of “final” decline from their 30 year bull market. My only issue with the trade is that it is largely one of timing. For I feel in this case that if one sits on long bonds for, say, 5 years you will come out a loser. Now, if you sit on Pfizer or AT&T (other yield providing things you could buy) for 5 years I would bet my left lung that you’ll get a chance to sell them significantly higher than today OR at least somewhat higher. So if they tank in the meantime, who cares.
But with the long bonds… to me it seems all but inevitable that in 5 years rates are higher and as such long bonds will be lower.
So while I support the idea and 103% support hte idea that treasuries and not gold is the true “safe haven” play…. I do not consider myself talented enough to time a move against what I percieve the long term trend to be.
good luck!
Nice shaky action in the leaders today, GS was a red herring due to short covering.
Close was ok but not great, I pulled back my few spec plays but left everything else on.
We need a few more days of this to make a trend.
Are long bonds really interesting? come on
Same here, I closed out my spec trades late morning and took a bit of profit from ANAD off the table. ANAD goes higher… much higher, but there could be a draw down before the next run.
Every time the ten yr gets near 4% I hesistate thinking it will go higher then it slips away. Patience.
Hello neighbor Fly. Well, I had a meeting with my boss at the Census center today and he tells me that you have not returned your form. Fly, Jr. tells me that you refuse to send it in because their is no box to check for either Italian-American or Time Machine Traveler. My Boss wants me to come by your house with members of ACORN and the Service Employees International Union. The SEI people usually bring baseball bats with them so please mail your form ASAP.
Tom eve I will be in Vegas for a few days of horrid debaucherously villianous behavior.
Anybody who posts here from now to then is welcome to any amount of drinks or dinner they wish if they show up. I am fairly sure I have blown enough money on booze in that town to get a nice table at whatever club on fairly short notice, and as long as I know by friday at noonish I can get whatev amount of cash is necessary into my debit account to cover it all. Otherwise I will go on a budget of about 10 grand a day. This is my habit to prevent myself from getting to Vegas a very nice midwest boy from a farm and NOT going home a coked out daytrader. lol
but seriously, come one and all, all are welcome, I have derived much joy from these pages and I would consider it a bargain to blow some cash on drinks for anybody from cyberspace whos blogs I have read or who influence me in any way.
that is all
fly is one mentally tough cat
As a side note do you buy any preferreds or dividend stocks as opposed to bonds?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajmVnaeC5wZk