Damn, who knows where this market is going? Let’s get some charts out and predict the future together, shall we? “The Fly” will become the swami of the chart world, Supreme Leader in all things that have to do with squiggly lines on paper. Fuck, we can chart everything, from a healthy diet to troubled marriages. I can tell people: “you see this moving average right here? Once the line breaks through it, I want you to get the fuck out and file for a divorce. However, if it comes back, especially on strong volume—quickly—run over to City Hall and get eloped again—because that shit is going higher. Next!”
Separately, people wearing velcro pants and burlap shirts are trying to steal from Senor Tropicana today, via shorting his stocks. The good news: all sell offs will be met with fervent buying sprees. I don’t know the exact reason why, nor do I care enough to investigate; but the market is not permitted to trade lower—at least for now. So, with that in mind, I will be heading out to a meeting shortly, without a care in the world. I will be kicking stray dogs (who try to attack me of course) into high voltage electric fences and gingerly tossing m-80’s (street grenades) at homeless people—who I catch littering the streets.
Thus far, I am pleased with today’s action in [[ENTR]] , Level 3 Communications, Inc. [[LVLT]] , General Cable Corporation [[BGC]] , Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] and TerreStar Corporation [[TSTR]] , while annoyed with Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc [[SHO]] , TEKELEC [[TKLC]] and Starent Networks Corp. [[STAR]] . Everything else is just sort of chilling out, taking the sun—drinking a few Corona’s.
Top picks: refiners
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FIG
However, if it comes back, especially on strong volume—quickly—run over to City Hall and get eloped again—
Again?
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I think I just discombobulated my combobulator.
70% short interest in WNR? Are you shitting me? If the squeeze starts it should be fucking amazing to watch!
Oops, guess that was a misprint. Looks like only about 15.5%
Short Interest (% of float as of 08/15/09) 70.28
That’s correct 70% as of last week. I picked up a small position in C @ 4.70
needle:
I’m not sure that’s correct.
I see 5.5% short interest and the PPT doesn’t have an amount.
This is how Scottrade posts WNR
Short Interest
Shares Short (Current Month) 11.1M
Short Ratio 5.8x
Short Interest as % of Float 70.28%
Shares Short (Prior Month) 11.7M
*Data updated twice a month by the 18th and 29th respectively
Yeah but that is not correct. NASDAQ has it listed at around 15.5% and the number of shares short are certainly not 70% of float. I think Scottrade has inaccurate info on that one. Wouldn’t be the first time.
not permitted. amen.
got my numbers off the td amertrade site. But it is 12 days old.
Maybe during this dead period it would be a good time to review 2009 predictions…
Damn Henry, RTK popped right after I asked you why you like it!
Looks like the march of the tools, as people blindly follow billionaire Paulson. I’m not seeing any other reason for this rebound. On the plus side, NOV still seems to be getting torn apart, and MO announced a dividend increase. I’m almost pulling 10% in dividends off of my original Altria investment nowadays.
Still looking for that short squeeze in HBAN or what?
He dumped HBAN days ago.
Really? All of it? I must have missed that!!
Here it is:
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2009/08/19/note-to-cnbc-shut-the-fuck-up/
You’re the man Fly
Agreed!
now we are talking…..DOW 10k here we come…….right on time…….
BARE is making a nice volume move here
AIG time & sales today was like a graphical interface of greed. Cha Cha Cha Shorta!
I have a question about options. A certain call for a refiner stock is priced at 1.40. The stock is at 14.27. That means the stock only has to go up 1% to reach intrinsic value within 3 weeks. Normally, the spread is atleast 5% even with just a few days left. Am I missing something?
I suppose it means the program trading doesn’t think it’s a good bet?
Uhhh…depends on which strike you’re talking about…
The “spread” that you’re talking about depends largely on time to expiration as well as the implied volatility of the stock.
Check to see if the stock goes ex-dividend some time between now and expiration.
Holy crap, where’ve you been?
I thought maybe you died and went to heaven when Dear Leader got the golden ticket…
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They sent you back, didn’t they?
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He’s talking TSO Sep 13 calls.
Right now we have a six-sigma divergence between oil and gas. This is a massive divergence and there should be higher profits for refiners. So the play would be either buy refiners or arb the oil/gas spread by buying gas and shorting oil until they converge. The arb is actually higher risk IMO because of current tail risk and the possible need of deep pockets.
In this particular case, implied vol for the call is very low as compared to historical values (ivolatility.com). This is one of the reasons why the calls are inexpensive. Looking at the stock chart, it looks like there is some resistance at around 16.00 so I would make that my first place to target. If you think it can make it to $16.00 by the third Friday in Sept, then go with the 14 Calls as they would pay out approximately 200% as opposed to the 13s only paying out around 100%. The 15s would pay out more but they are much riskier, avoid them. For a safer play you could also do a diagonal spread and buy the Oct 14s @ 1.10 and sell Sep 15s @ .25 for a net debit of .85 and payout of approx 150% if the stock prints 16.00 at expiration.
Nice suggestion. I like.
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jake maybe you will like my dollar cartoon.. http://bit.ly/R8JeT
Thanks for the reply. You nailed it on the head;That is indeed the call I was talking about. Your suggestion makes sense regarding the 14s, but I’m still going with the 13s.
If you swing at any lower strikes you’ll be just like Lenny Dykstra. Pun intended? ABSOLUTELY.
For my gold-toothed friends that like to hang around this heezy:
I like it when you get on this Beezy!
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The fert/commodity plays POT and MOS have been “weak this week” on questionable market strength.
I can’t imagine what will happen if this thing actually tanks.
-and-
How about those AIG Sept $50.00 puts at $6.00 each today, while the stock was trading at $49.50 (up $12.00/share), on rumors that the old cheatin’ CEO Greenberg, was going to start “advising” the NEW cheatin’ CEO on how to screw investors?.
Is it just me, or am I completely losing my mind on AIG’s radical price movements?
Oh well, never mind, I won’t bother you anymore with my silly and unjustified questions about AIG’s stock price.
Using the word “gas” means NG to many people, not gasoline. AIG, UNG, and lots of other stuff makes me very very antsy. Where is the Mahirishi Fly? The Swami Fly? We need guidance.
Do these “clean energy” commercials remind anyone else of this? –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2twgh4om1wc