My foray into the insidious world of low priced stocks paid dividends, on the day of the Lord May 13th, 2009, in the form of large capital losses (paper). As amazing as it may seem, I executed zero trades today. I had the old “deer in headlights” demeanor going on today, much to the chagrin of the doomsday crowd.
I would mention my losers; but it’s too painful. I rather make believe today was a nightmare of sorts, where Freddy Kruger was chasing me around some filthy boiler room, cutting my face to ribbons.
According to The PPT, today represents the 3rd lowest score in its short history, with an overall reading of 2.17. There were two occasions when the score was lower, on 2/10 and 2/17. Also, there are zero sectors with a “buy” rating, out of 198.
Based upon past action, it is likely the market will trade lower, before it strips the bears naked and dumps them into hot pools of tar. With my 35% cash position, I opted to use it to buy dips, instead of hedging. However, knowing me, I could change my mind tomorrow. I’m volatile like that.
Off to eat a faux hot dog.
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Well said. Instead of steak tonight, I will go to McDonald’s and eat with the overweight and ignorant.
Sell in May and eat a faux hot dog.
Fly the real question is–did you call Frank the contractor to fix your crops….or does the journey in hell resume with “The Fly” aerating his yard and planting grass seed?
While not an amazing day, my PnL was slightly positive. I had outsized gains in QID, FAZ, and heavily short HME. I did cover a touch of HME today, added the tiniest amount of CUZ and I added to my QID. I expect we will trade to 875, bounce to 895-899 then proceed on another leg down. I don’t think this recent move up is completely done but it is very damaged and will be murdered in the end. I don’t want to get too far to one side but I want to stay low dollar leveraged short to define risk via 3x and 2x shorts and maintain a good amount of long side exposure that is being built on wide dips. Commodities will remain my largest long position via DXO and UNG. Off to laugh about green shoots and mustard seeds.
SEC Recommends civil fraud charges vs Angelo Mozilo
WSJ reports staff at the SEC have decided to recommend filing civil fraud charges against Angelo Mozilo, the co-founder of Countrywide Financial, people familiar with the investigation told The Wall Street Journal. The SEC sent a so-called Wells notice to Mozilo several weeks ago alerting him of the planned charges, the people said. The potential charges include alleged violations of insider-trading laws as well as failing to disclose material information to shareholders, according to one person familiar with the matter. A Wells notice is a precursor to a civil lawsuit in an SEC investigation. It outlines to an individual or company under investigation what charges might be filed against them and gives a target a chance to respond to the allegations. Mozilo’s attorneys could still persuade the SEC’s commissioners not to bring a case.
Fuckin A, if theres one bastard out of all of this that deserves to be shitting in a bucket on Rikers, its him.
the QQQQ has almost lost an entire month’s worth of gains. crapton of support at 33, though.
my loading into FAZ is based on a suspicion that too many funds feel way overweight on financials right about now.
the bulls better be planning for a rally tomorrow, else XLF break below 11, then we may see some panic amongst financials. didn’t get a -300 on the DOW today, so i’m not certain that the bulls have rolled over quite yet.
TL;DR: so long as QQQQ stays below 33.5 we’re in for some screwage, and if we break decisively below 11 for the XLF, this decline is something more than opex fuckery.
There are are gonna be a few really positive things that come from the next step-down in the markets. Starting with the left-wing, nut job, occupying the White House. That M-F’er is gonna be put right back in his place. The Obama agenda will sink, as will his popularity. He won’t be able to blame America’s problems on the prior idiot any more. It’s all on Obama now.
One more point. I hate Goldman Sachs. Those fuckers have caused more trouble for the world economy, than anyone else.
There, I feel better now.
p.s. I hate Angelo Mozilo too!
Donny: While not going off on a tangent I would agree if we start legging down again all those which were filled with hope and started putting money back into this market will raise their pitchforks if they get wiped out again in financials. Look out for that!
Oh by the way absolutely huge volume day on FAZ, we are talking 400,000,000 shares vs. 130,000,000 normally.
Deer in the headlights..LMAO..that was me in the fall.I sat transfixed, semi comatose,no, ossified..couldn t eat for 2 days except for junky shit like rice pudding and raisin bread..christ funny in retrospect…Then during the swine scare I went to Waffle House and found love and pork in all imaginable varieties
hay fly
sorry about the loss,But you said it will come fast and you were right!
The SEC will give Tangelo a free hummer and release him with a stern admonition not to fleece the sheep anymore.
This is scandalous…..
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1037-FLASH-Liddy-Lays-An-Egg-On-BERNANKE!.html
You mean Tangelo will be giving free toothless hummers at Rikers.
Also, I just saw a dog going down on a cat.
Port and Stilton? Nope, it’s been an Irn Bru and vodka kind of day for me, too.
On to Thursday.
gappingandyapping Says:
“….I don’t think this recent move up is completely done but it is very damaged and will be murdered in the end.”
How do you quantify “very damaged” vs. “pullback”? Seems to me that a close below the lows of 4/20 would be a market that is “very damaged”. The weak ass effort the shorts gave the last 1.5 hrs of the market tells me that the bulls haven’t yet given up. I just heard that fuckin cueball Mackey say that a “bunch of technical support was broken” today – I wish his fucking head would explode. That aside, WTF is everyone looking at to say that a -185 day resulted in a market that is “very damaged” when that same fucking market has rocketed 2,000 points (for those of you relics that follow the Dow). Sounds to me that there is a lot of hope that the market is “very damaged” – the market likes to rip those a new one. I’m 50% cash and would benefit from a nice pullback, but the reasons being given ain’t worth a 20 second segment on CNBC. Look for a possible 100 point reversal tomorrow.
Fly, great post as always! I am happy with my performance today. I had kept my XLY, PNRA and FAF shorts open from last week. It was painful at first but patience is a virtue. PNRA reached my target of 50 so I will put a stop on it on the upside. Because XLY has just broken the 200 EMA and FAF is on a downward spiral, both may still have room to go further down. I will put stops on them tomorrow if the trend reverses.
call it what you want–the black hole is getting smaller every day that goes by–The economy is getting better.
.. Run bears run.
McGangBangs for all!
Fly, you rock…what I can’t understand is that you predicted the selloff around this time last week…your time machine DOES work!
Fly, nothing wong with being wong! BTW Cramer is bearish on oil, if it stays above $60, so watch out. You might get wong-fu’d and a karate chop! With a side of Fly lice, of course.
As I sat in the dentist’s chair last night with two very attractive women on each side, I kept thinking of whether I could somehow create a mental model of it being a session focused on pleasure. On my right, was the woman with the drill, on my left was her assistant. They seemed so happy to be at my side working on me. As she pressed the drill deep into my tooth I could feel the younger dental assistant’s warm thighs press against my arm. As my eyes turned to her she smiled warmly knowing that I was a good patient and wouldn’t flinch. Not happy with the situation I turned my thoughts to my portfolios.
I’m still 60% utilities, 25% various mutual funds, 10% cash, 5% mad money longs on regional banks and will slowly be boosting my mutual fund holdings over the next several months no matter which way the market moves (unless it rockets to all time highs).
Alvari, the qqqq closed below its trendline under 33.40 SnP also is sitting on the bottom of the channel. I will also point you to the downturn of m2 as chivas mentioned. A lot of signs signaling caution but I think we retest 900 before deciding if we want to continue lower or higher.
Well, I’ll just say I’m happy I got short-term bearish. Added to FXP, SRS today. I would highlight China as being very precarious near-term; that market really started looking too far out at the recovery.
Recall a great deal of Chinese stimulus money went straight to the market. If it comes out, that’s bad. If it vaporizes into losses, that’s worse…
IF WALMART REPORTS GOOD NUMBERS WERE BACK IN THE GAME, IF NOT…LOWER WE WILL GO UNTIL WE GET SOME GOOD NEWS, I GUESS..:(
I’m getting hammered on my small-craps…FTK, GMO, and CUZ included. =/
A bloody day on the Jacksonian field, but also a good one to pick up some names that have run a bit in the last weeks…
Read all about it in Jacksonian Deflation.
I finally listed the “Core” all in one spot, too. Some folks had been asking about that.
____
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooooooooooooooooo !!
Daylight – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vX8K3ASV2Rg
Lung Sac! Good to see you stop by once in while!
OMG (JD) — I have the same sitch with my new dentist. She is hot and her assistant is hotter. I’m thinking to myself (after all these years) “Why didn’t I think of this before??”
Everyone should have a (hot) female dentist.
______________
CAP — don’t take it to heart, man. There’s nothing in that ruling that says you can’t still suck your own cock.
____________
Beware the in coming bear
A Warning
I’m a monster so don’t walk my way.
Don’t trust my smile my teeth are like knives.
I’ll drag you down & suck you dry.
Don’t laugh at my jokes- the punchline is murder.
Don’t enjoy my touch, every caress hides a chokehold.
I’m only happy when I’ve ruined everything I see.
Believe everything you’ve ever heard about me- suck it up.
If you see me coming don’t stop, just turn & walk the other way.
I will not lie about what I have done, I will not lie about what I will do to you, the sweat of my exertion is pure poison, I’m hell…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbsHXuw-9jk&feature=PlayList&p=E2C82AB79357994F&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=47
Have taken 3k short USO @32.73. Will add to this if it continues to rise…
Jake, 3.5 hours together last night. Oddly enough, the relationship was deeper than a shallow fling.
T MOE, that Lamb of God music should be set to 11 with everyone having a beer bong contest.
what a great day, I hope this continues. One thing that burns my ass more than anything else is our government in bed with the media, in one cohesive effort to give false hope to 350 million americans (yes babies included) that the past 8 years of greed and real estate criminal actions can be hidden and covered up and pushed off by telling us everything is peachy.
I know the scheme the FED is trying to pull here. as I’ve said here 5 or 6 times, they have a scheme to try to get all who have the power (CNBC, etc. constant rants by Geithner and his chronies and all involved) to tell us all is well, hoping to push the DOW back to 10k so people will fell like all bad shit has passed and they will feel inclined to buy that 400,000.00 dollar house that the bank loaned 400,000.00 on back in 2006, that was foreclosed on that went down to 250,000.00 and with the scheme in place people would feel good about buying it again for 400,000.00 to get it off the banks books without them loosing a dime.
This was their plan…..I hope the fuck it backfires in their lying ass faces, and puts them in their place.
time will tell.
we only need 20 more days like today, in a row. but they have alot of power so there is no telling what fuckery and manipulation lay ahead by these fuckers.
that is all, my rant has ended, carry on as you were.
Jake –
Yeah – I lurk often. Thanks for remembering.
Gapping –
Can we all agree that the market is still being led around by technical analysis because we still don’t know WTF is going on? If so, it has been obvious for the past 3 weeks that, from a technical standpoint, we have been overbought. We have had all these floor dipsticks on CNBC telling us to get ready for a major pullback, but it hasn’t happened because everyone – except Fly – has been chasing returns. That shit ain’t stopped. We broke above the 20 ema on the qqq weekly to great fanfare and caution only to go higher and higher until we slammed into the 50 ema. Hell, I was in the camp of pullback, but the fags (not that there is anything wrong with that) just wouldn’t stop pushing it higher. Think that has all stopped and “Go Away in May” reins supreme – not yet. The pushes are getting harder but they can’t yet close, which tells me there is still a bid out there. The overbought condition needs a double top on the daily – hasn’t happened yet. Fake/shake out coming. We will now draw in a bunch of shorts who trade via Markets 101 (with the Cramer intro of course). This will be short lived – we will bounce off the $32 level on the Qs, thereby shaking out all the new shorts, bounce to the $35 level drawing in a bunch of lemmings that thought they missed the boat the first time and will not this time. From there we chop to $37 and then fry all longs into the summer. We will then bleed to the $31 level through summer and then catch a mother of a bid into Q4 because the money managers that missed everything up to that point have everything on the line into the end of year. Yet again, I just may be blowing smoke up my ass. That would be a good trick if I could do it. Wonder if I can.
Are shitting me!?!
A small downturn in a sea sick market and the Bear-Tards are throwing a victory dance.
A mere ‘blip’ as the bottom is far from here.(is it JUNE yet?)
Late tomorrow you will be red-faced caught with your shorts down, screamin “We wuz robbed!”
Pace yourselves or come back end of June and buy ‘everything’….everything that still has a listing
New low in July.
Alvari: That is good and all and I would love to see us moonshot from 875 but the bottom line is the banks are still spindle fucked. The most concerning thing is the rise on the 10 year. This has stopped all re-financings in their tracks. Credit is once again tightening, GM is failing causing 150,000 new jobless claims to be launched just this coming week and you have Obama looking to raise investor’s taxes. I don’t see how we overcome all of this but hey I would be happy if we did. Bottom line I really doubt with money flow declining we will see a rise in the market. But I guess we can all close our eyes and hope.
Lost some but still ahead. Freaking ATHR. It shook support without much effort.
Off to sushi and nigiri. Thanks for breaking up my day at home working on Microsoft projects.
Namaste.
The 10 year has fallen from 3.3 to 3.1 and could attempt to drop below 3.0 by Fri. The market just moved at a rate not seen in 70 years – it needs a break here. Oil and other commods have bounced up with the market – not really good for the economy. It is all guessing about what exactly moved money managers to start selling here or was it short covering that produced the up move? Money is reported to be moving into ETFs. Buy a short etf to day trade for a few bucks if you want to hold longs…..a little longer here.
gapping –
Add on Commercial loans in the next 4-6 mo. and your argument becomes more compelling; however, we have various wildcards such as Timmy Boy, BerCrackaddict, and money managers that need return. Too many wildcards for me – so, I’ll stick to technicals for now.
QQQQ
Move 1: Down to $32
Move 2: Up to 37ish
Move 3: Down to 31ish
We reverse when the VIX ticks 35-37 area. Then the market will rip the lungs out of the overzeaolus bears.
From most of the stuff I read and people that I talk to, they’re usually either on the inflation (Gov’t successful) or deflation (Gov’t unsuccessful) side.
But how about stagflation?
Our economy is obviously still contracting. As long as housing prices continue to drop, people’s wealth will continue to fall. This will make them spend less, which hurts companies’ profits and make them lay more people off. And that will cause even more people to foreclose and further decrease spending.
I can’t see how we’ll see any sort of a bottom until real estate bottoms. And that isn’t coming anytime soon. Even with all the stimulus going on (super low interest rates, rebates), home buyer’s are still having a hard time getting a loan. Houses are still “expensive”.
All that is nothing new.
But now, it seems people don’t want our dollars as evidenced by the recent treasury auction. So one has to take a look at the commodities. If we were really headed for deflation, GLD shouldn’t be trading near all time highs. And check out UUP and TLT.
As for oil, one could make the argument that we have a huge over supply of it and supply/demand dictates that prices go down along with other commodities in similar situations. However, there is a “baseline” worldwide demand for it. And as more and more producers are squeezed out of the picture (because they can’t survive forever with prices this low) the supply will decrease. All that, plus the article about China amassing all sorts of commodities right now, because they’re cheap and they will need it to grow.
Here’s the kicker, companies struggling to get rid of their inventories have been slashing prices to the point where it’s unsustainable. After awhile, companies that are unable to compete in this manner will disappear. And the ones that are left will need to make a profit to survive and will have to mark prices up to profitable levels or perish themselves. With a weakening economy, companies raising prices along with rising commodity prices, we have stagflation.
Anybody think that we’ll just deflate? I’m interested to hear what you have to say, because I would very much prefer that.
kidstock Says:
We reverse when the VIX ticks 35-37 area. Then the market will rip the lungs out of the overzeaolus bears.
May 13th, 2009 at 9:08 pm Vote: Add rating 0 Subtract rating 0
TOO FUNNY. Besides being wrong.
More “green shoots” for the recession is over bulls.
May 13, 2009, 9:21 p.m. EST
California formally asks Geithner for TARP assistance
Story Comments (4)
Alert Email Print Share
By John Letzing, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — California Treasurer Bill Lockyer asked U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Wednesday to authorize assistance for his state from the federal Troubled Asset Relief Program, warning that depressed tax revenues may cut into basic services and halt the building of infrastructure.
In a letter, Lockyer asked Geithner for TARP assistance for California and “other financially strapped states and local governments which face a severe cash flow crunch.”
“If we cannot obtain our usual short-term cash-flow borrowings, there could be devastating impacts on the ability of the State or other governments to provide essential services to their citizens,” Lockyer wrote.
In particular, Lockyer cited fire and police protection, education and social services.
No credit
In addition, Lockyer warned in the letter that California’s cash flow problems may lead to trouble accessing the long-term bond market, which could “eventually even halt our infrastructure construction programs.”
Lockyer estimated that California’s cash flow shortfall in fiscal 2009-2010 will be more than $13 billion.
But weakness in the credit markets will cause difficulties in short-term borrowing to make up that difference, Lockyer wrote, necessitating the use of TARP money to help make funds more easily available through banks.
Under a plan outlined by Lockyer in his letter, if a government is unable to repay loans made using TARP funds, the Treasury would use TARP money to “purchase the non-performing assets.”
Under that scenario, the state or local government would then directly repay the Treasury under the terms it had with the bank, according to Lockyer’s plan.
Lockyer has stated previously that he believes the Obama administration has the authority to use TARP to guarantee state-government borrowing.
John Letzing is a MarketWatch reporter based in San Francisco.
YO !!…… FLY !?!
http://www.patchgenie.com/
Patch crop circles, money back guarantee
_______________________________________________
DEVILDOG,
July low……first to second week?
Dow…..7100*?
or am I just…”Optimistic?”
just askin
need answer b4 over Lord bans me
Jeopardy answer supplied by Devil Dawg (for $500, Alex):
TOO FUNNY. Besides being wrong.
(Jake rings in)
Trebeck: Mr.Gint?
Jake: What is buying and holding FAZ from $15, Alex?
(scene)
____
More “green shoots” for all the “recession is over”, “all is well”, “new supercycle bull market” bulls. MOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
May 13, 2009, 9:21 p.m. EST
California formally asks Geithner for TARP assistance
Story Comments (10)
Alert Email Print Share
By John Letzing, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — California Treasurer Bill Lockyer asked U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Wednesday to authorize assistance for his state from the federal Troubled Asset Relief Program, warning that depressed tax revenues may cut into basic services and halt the building of infrastructure.
In a letter, Lockyer asked Geithner for TARP assistance for California and “other financially strapped states and local governments which face a severe cash flow crunch.”
“If we cannot obtain our usual short-term cash-flow borrowings, there could be devastating impacts on the ability of the State or other governments to provide essential services to their citizens,” Lockyer wrote.
In particular, Lockyer cited fire and police protection, education and social services.
No credit
In addition, Lockyer warned in the letter that California’s cash flow problems may lead to trouble accessing the long-term bond market, which could “eventually even halt our infrastructure construction programs.”
Lockyer estimated that California’s cash flow shortfall in fiscal 2009-2010 will be more than $13 billion.
But weakness in the credit markets will cause difficulties in short-term borrowing to make up that difference, Lockyer wrote, necessitating the use of TARP money to help make funds more easily available through banks.
Under a plan outlined by Lockyer in his letter, if a government is unable to repay loans made using TARP funds, the Treasury would use TARP money to “purchase the non-performing assets.”
Under that scenario, the state or local government would then directly repay the Treasury under the terms it had with the bank, according to Lockyer’s plan.
Lockyer has stated previously that he believes the Obama administration has the authority to use TARP to guarantee state-government borrowing.
John Letzing is a MarketWatch reporter based in San Francisco.
More green shoots.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/california-treasurer-requests-tarp-help
jake, I bought all the way down into the 4s. They will all be well into the green in July. You lose. I always win the war.
Knows, I said a NEW LOW in July.
JakeGint Says:
Jeopardy answer supplied by Devil Dawg (for $500, Alex):
TOO FUNNY. Besides being wrong.
(Jake rings in)
Trebeck: Mr.Gint?
Jake: What is buying and holding FAZ from $15, Alex?
(scene)
==================================================
Hahahahahahaha.
Ok….
Not long b4 we find out.
Had another guy quote 5’s
Hard to believe but then again when AUD/USD was @.64ish he advised to go long to .75ish
Found that hard to believe too
What should I write about? Any requests?
shishkabobs, lanterns, snake venom effects at extremely high altitude, sweet-tarts vs. sprees, and buying ipo’s of satellite mapping companies @ the open.
fly
IF i dare to request info on the marijuana legalization possibilities any companies geared for this
Howabout a Grandpa Fly story?
____
Anything you want “FLY”
just leave out “Hope/Vision and Change”
Don’t need anymore horror stories b4 bed time
Inflation, deflation, stagflation? Maybe your thesis from here on? Maybe what you look for in charts, something like what CA did?
maybe somebody watched Trish Regan and her story on the pot trade ..anybody know what fertilizer they use to grow that ?? @ a cost of $400 per lb. im sure its not cow shit
or who makes the special lights or lamps???
Cheer up Master Fly. The way you got long into this unforeseeable rally taught me many things. I sat here in awe the entire time.
Fly – An imaginary tale about what you would do with Paulson if you were Hitler of 2009 and the USA is under your control.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLYnwYU72yI0&refer=home
FLY – Tell us about the time you went to Romania after the market crashed and you lost everything being long a bunch of penny stocks. Oh wait, that happens next month. My bad, I must have taken that trip on the time machine too.