We’re gonna have a fucking party! Get your crack pipes and 40 ounces of Colt 45 ready, for we are celebrating THE REVIVAL OF EQUITIES or DEATH TO ALL EQUITIES. Either way, we’re having a party.
I was just discussing the economy and how it pertains to equity prices with a “worldly,” scholarly friend of mine, by way of digital telephone device. He is of the belief that “all is lost,” and the economy shall go down the sewer pipe, eventually conquered by angry Mongol’s who want their money back.
In a very honorable manner, I pointed him towards some “green shoots,” in the semiconductor sector and how the Government cheese makers were intent on inflating everything, including the stupid prices of bank stocks. As you could imagine, he rejected such evidence as mere “scams.”
I furthered my agenda: “We are in a process of liquefying the balance sheets of loser banks and loser CRE companies, as evidenced by recent secondary offerings.”
After that, the conversation devolved into some sort of caveman shouting match, whereby both parties threatened to exact physical harm to one another.
My point: I am open minded to some sort of magical recovery, although it seems like a stretch. Granted, unemployment is out of control and municipal budgets are laughable to anyone with a brain and a calculator. On top of that, I find it hard to believe the market will close higher for 2009, following an epic disaster in credit.
Nonetheless, my game plan, from late 2008, was to get long the second half of 2009. I thought the first half of ’09 would be horrific, which in turn would lead to an epic rally in the second. Perhaps I got my halves mixed up?
Only time will tell.
Bottom line: If you believe the economy is on the mend, it is your duty, as an asshole dip buyer, to allocate funds today. Across the board, stocks are down 10-15%. Either this is the beginning of the bear party, or the music equipment overheated for the bulls.
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bring out “f*ck yuo bulls, you are dead” banner. No, wait, let me check the market one more time… yup, bulls are dead.
market is up 35% since the lows and the little cubs are having a training orgasm with 2%. Geez Louise. Look at them tugging away there it’s disgusting.
POOF! Your bullshit goverment intervention/short squeeze induced rally is over!
My dick was swining so low last week-Now all of a sudden it looks like I jumped into the Hudson in the middle of January.
Nothing is over until we decide it is!
At the risk of interrupting my unending flow of failures, I say the party has only just begun. Reflate!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKbkSXnJmVw
Mark it, the LIDDY top!
Bears are going to get late day rolled on or the party will be over for the bulls.
from prior thread.
13 week rate of change of MZM and M2 are falling of a cliff.
trannies and q’s continue to lead down.
new lows are starting to expand.
homo hammers out in full force, smashing the dome-pieces of the bulls
Chivas:
This doesn’t show what you’re suggesting.
M2
2008-12-01 8140.6
2009-01-01 8190.1
2009-02-01 8222.9
2009-03-01 8363.6
Fly:
“eventually conquered my angry Mongol’s who want their money back.”
Perhaps “conquered by angry Mongol’s” would make more sense.
As would “Perhaps I got my halves mixed up?”
Just sayin’
Great posts lately Senor.
Any opinion on LUFK?
The best indicator to me is Fly. As long as he remains easily stampeded into the bullish camp(Fly must really be a COW…MOO!) I know the BEARS will continue to win the WAR. I believe the Fly is unduly influenced by his time on wall street. He still believes these scumballs can fool America into allowing them to remain at the top of the food chain. Sorry Fly, not this time. This time they will truly get what they deserve. Pain, suffering and hopefully death. BTW, ALL of your oil plays are down BIG. Odd no?
Watching Gibbs on Fox News press conference.
Looks like he snuck some pink candy at Willie Wonka’s Candy Factory.
J,
i am sorry, i don’t understand what you’re trying to say.
I turned short-term bearish when the QQQQ’s (our previous leader) broke down.
Although, I think a pullback of 10-15% should be bought on dip. No chance we are “testing the lows”.
Top Pick: Short WYNN or anything casino related, until SP500 reaches 875
Neither does this really
MZM
2008-12-29 9202.1
2009-01-05 9282.1
2009-01-12 9281.7
2009-01-19 9348.0
2009-01-26 9333.5
2009-02-02 9357.6
2009-02-09 9367.0
2009-02-16 9389.0
2009-02-23 9355.0
2009-03-02 9413.7
2009-03-09 9470.9
2009-03-16 9493.5
2009-03-23 9468.3
2009-03-30 9448.3
2009-04-06 9413.7
2009-04-13 9409.6
2009-04-20 9431.1
2009-04-27 9478.3
…maybe it’s time to buy more penny stocks. “It’s a bull market, dammit!”
Chivas
You said MS and MZM was falling off a cliff, however I can’t really see that in the numbers I just posted.
Thanks
J,
i am talking rate of change. the rate of change is falling of a cliff and that is the important stat one should look at.
Dog:
Leave the truther stuff for the monday blog.
Kudos for kicking ass this year fly, again. Went from long to neutral/slightly short on Friday after 2 months or so long. Considering going all out short except for healthcare and commodities. Still looking for S&P 400-500 eventually.
Enjoy the rally while it lasts:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5301123/bEnjoy-the-rally-while-it-lasts—but-expect-to-take-a-sucker-punchb.html
Chivas;
I tend to think the only figures you can look at that aren’t affected by noise are the monthly ags which do look okish.
I know a loser when I see one, and bubba, this administration has a big red “L” on their forehead. Bonds crash, stocks crash, currency crash, oceans of boiling blood, dogs and cats sleeping together, the whole nine yards coming to a theater near U.
chivas: Are you looking at a longer term pullback for your q’s and diamond positions or a short term correction?
J,
that’s my point. the 13 week rate of change is not afeected by noise. notice, i am saying 13 wk rate of change. in addition the 52 week rate of change has started to roll over.
Oh Devildog, Devildog, where art thou DevilDog? Surely he will emerge from his hole on a day such as today.
j, listen to chivas. Damn the dude made some bold and nice moves on shorting the q’s and dia. Nicely played!
Well..this has been a sobering 5 hours to the point of me taking a half valium and putting Muddy Waters on to cheer me up..but if you check, as I have, many of the heavily traded and over extended stocks are getting close to strong resistance levels if they fail; the pooch, as they say, is fucked
Why does C keep sending me $$ @ 0.00% for 9 months?
Are people taking this $$ and going out to buy phones and what not? Is this why we have seen a bump up in purchases?
Funny I have taken 25K from C and 15K from BAC at 0.00% and 1.99% respectively. I am almost break even and think this whole thing is a shame.
Stock Disney World is over.
regards
chuck
Gap,
i think the q’s will eventually close the gap at around 30.80. having said that, spx 875 i think it’s important. if it holds, i re-evaluate, if it breaks, imo the retest will be deep.
one day at a time.
Muddy Waters.
Born and raised in Rolling Fork, Mississippi.
Been through there.
Love the catfish.
Siedman died?
That sucks.
Appeared to be a good guy.
Along the lines of Ed Hart from the old FNN.
chivas: could not agree more on 875 as being extremely crucial and one step at a time, both hands on the wheel with mirrors adjusted.
Ditto above.
Chivas;
I’m not suggesting just month to month. You need to get a decent period in there. Since the start of the year both ags look like they’re growing steadily.
the 13 week ma is effected by the drop in the latter part of last year. However if the last 4.5 months are growing which is around the time the Fed really did start QE it looks fine to me.
This market will be range bound for years. Most likely it will mimic an abbreviated Depression and post-Depression-era market.
Traders will be able to take advantage of this. Investors will be pissed.
Got to have a driving force to bring us out. No, the iPhone is not a driving force.
Fly, cashmere bro! I went through your old blogs, and so far your small caps are racking up big losses. Howsabout I’s gives you a free month pass to the players club?
Noticeable ones being RFMD, FTK, BEE, and CUZ.
I’ll share my bed with you!
Regards,
Nails
Fear not inwestors. Broker A just called me and asked me to call up 20M of my closest friends.
Done.
Chivas nailed this recent top. Well done.
I’ve got shit to do.
on a side.
Devildog must be salivating right about now.
Like I said on Monday. We will make a new low in early July. The desperation tell was yesterday when the government called in the lying and corrupt, elitist greenspan to call a bottom in housing. Bullshit.
Take a look at the IYR here…
It has now tested and broken below it’s 20-day MA. Trendline cracked. Also a negative divergence in the MACD. Couple that with the highest down volume since February today. And the next real support is below $29…
So it seems to be a great short set up & certain death to the penny stock bonanza. That said, the market’s mood was that it was in dire need of retracement, and with PPI out tomorrow I am not ready to get short yet. Business inventories were up a fragment today.
Worth noting that Kass is now net short, per his permabear ways.
My space shuttle (the star trek kind) says we bounce tomorrow.
Fly,
thank you.
FLy – What about the “mother of all shorting opportunities” or something like that you foresaw happening in the Fall of 2009?
Just a normal 5% pullback folks, that’s all. Nothing to see here so move along.
fyi, per the Grantham report link I posted from ZeroHedge:
Grantham suggested the first dip will be bought (although he did not call them “asshole dip-buyers”) and then the big rollover.
So did Woodshedder, but it doesn’t matter cause I also started buying dips. Net net, my longs moved farther against me than my SPY shorts have moved for me.
Do not mess with the waitresses at Waffle House.
They may not have teeth but they know how to shoot.
http://www.wltx.com/news/story.aspx?storyid=73684&catid=2
My horse and buddy (the Amish kind) says we bounce tomorrow.
J,
this is what i am talking about.
http://www.haysadvisory.com/html/Monetary_12559_image006.gif
Just a much need correction here, to stick a few bricks in the new bull market, wall of worry 😉
Well, really, truly, I am not in the new bull market camp … but I think we see new recent highs, SPX 1050ish this summer, much to DevilDogs chagrin .
Then new lows, sub 666, or a test at the very least.
Just a much need correction here, to stick a few bricks in the new bull market, wall of worry 😉
Well, really, truly, I am not in the new bull market camp … but I think we see new recent highs, SPX 1050ish this summer, much to DevilDogs chagrin .
Then new lows, sub 666, or a test at the very least.
LOL — Just follow whatever CA says — he’s so much better a trader than Fly and he’s probably net short now that the indexes have dropped bombs on big volume.
Should just hand over the reigns.
Oh: And only a real douchebag would point out the typo.
Some buying programs are about to start. Watch for them.
Juice, your timing is wrong. Much to your chagrin.
When does Joan interview The Fly?
http://www.tvland.com/prime/shows/howd_you_get_so_rich/
Lets see if the bears can hold on to this one in the last half hour. The clipping of the knees of the herd has begun.
We are in a process of liquefying the balance sheets
Well, yeah, one way or another I guess!
______
This is the equivalent of a DEVILDOG Dead Cat Bounce. He’s been getting his ass completely handed to him for the better part of two months, now he comes out of the woodwork to hoot and holler about a few percent.
Bought 15,000 more XOMA @ .64
I am now officially 99% invested
puny, I called the rally back in March you idiot. Stop stalking me and seek psychological help. Buy the dip dipstick and I’ll rip your head off.
Looks like qqqq’s closing under the 200. 33.40 was a significant level.
I vouch for devildog. I don’t know if he sold his FAZ however. There is serious slippage holding that shit in a melt up.
Condolences to the family of Bill Seidman. He was a gentleman’s gentleman.
Getting long 5000 BGU here.
Volume is light, this smells like a trap for shorts.
Henry, I hope you know what you’re doing with XOMA. Especially, that they got downgraded to sell.
Don’t let emotions get the best of you, and stay solvent! Not to resolve to prove a point.
Whats Going On? Did The Gretzky House sell?
This one goes out to Karen Tso:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMwzr7KzICE
I told you two weeks ago the party was over.
All I have left on the long side is a large AEM position and I will let it lose tom. if it doesn’t behave well.
I am looking into building very large positions in DTO, FAZ/SRS(how original huh?) in the next few days/weeks.