Banking Lunacy

With oil down and another gigunta MER writedown, asshole dip buyers find it reasonable to buy the banks, apparently. As a matter of fact, yesterday’s entire leg down has been erased in the banks. Go-fucking-figure.

If there is one thing to learn from all this, just know that the market is never right. I know a lot of people out there love to say “the market is always right.” I don’t think so.

The market eventually gets it right. But, for the most part, it is chockfull of brainless chickens, clucking away, buying stocks with impunity.

At these levels, I like [[SKF]] and [[SRS]]. Hell, I even like [[FXP]]. But that doesn’t mean I will be right tomorrow. For all I know, I can be wrong for the next month or two. However, as you well know by now, my God given right is to bank coin in the market. So, one way or another, I’ll figure it out.

At the moment, I am redoubling my shorting efforts in [[TCB]]. This stock, like many other regionals today, is sprinting higher, for no good reason. In my estimation, this fucker should be resting its laurels around $10.

Furthermore, I am taking this spike to sell off some more longs.

I told you all along, the CDO’s on the balance sheets of our glorious banking institutions are worthless. All of the “writedowns” taken was just PR to placate the helpless employees and long term shareholders. These banks will be “writing off” their toxic paper, like [[MER]], over the next few months. Again, the underlying asset behind the paper has depreciated beyond repair. The CDO’s are worth nothing.

MER is reporting a sale of their CDO’s, but they are financing that sale! After it’s all said and done, they got 5 cents on the dollar or a punch in the nose (with brass knuckles). Rewind a few weeks to the Bloomberg sale, you will find MER financed that deal too. WTF!

What’s the point of selling shit, if you are the one giving the other guy the money to buy it? Does that make sense?

All of the banks, from [[LEH]] to [[MS]] to [[GS]] need to write off assets.

Most importantly, they (banks) are killing shareholders, via dilution.

Listen to me, don’t you understand that in order to get back to where they were, market cap wise, the stock needs to climb to ridiculous valuations, due to all the new shares in the float? Shares of WM or LEH will never get back to their all-time highs, in my estimation.

Finally, I hear all of this talk about the housing market bottoming. For those people, I ask you this:

Who is going to buy the homes?

After all, if you are interested in buying a home right now, you need to put a down payment of 30-35%, depending on your situation. If you’re lucky, you will find a local bank that will accept 20%. However, for the most part, banks are not lending.

So, if banks are not lending, due to lack of capital, how will all that inventory move?

In closing, I would not touch the banks here. Instead, I’d take advantage of any spike to sell them. In addition, if you’re short steel stocks, get out. Numbers out of [[X]] will likely buoy the sector for a few days. And, I concede, oil is broken here. [[DUG]] looks decent, up to $40.

Fuck banks.

Good Night.

UPDATE: Merrill Lynch is a criminal organization.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caG5OVN0ZRc 450 300]

Let me tell you, I just got back from the fucking Doctor’s office and I almost didn’t make it. I don’t take well to blood tests. First of all, I’ve never been to this Doctor and was quite appalled at most of the things that was going in his office.

First of all, he didn’t honour [sic] my appointment, like I have all fucking day to just sit in some fucktards office, with assholes all around me. Next, I found out, after he called me in, he WASN’T even a Doctor. Instead, he was some R.P.A. schmuck, with the internet as his guide to medicine.

No joke.

Following some basic questions, he starting swearing, saying words like “bullshit” and “fuck that shit,” for no apparent reason. After completing our terrific R.P.A-patient conversation, he wrote a script for high blood pressure, despite my pressure being a relatively low 132-82. He said: “you can rip it up after you leave. There are plenty of people who deliver flowers to the funeral home.”

No joke.

As an aside, he spoke with a heavy spanish accent.

Finally, my visit ended with a catastrophic blood test. The technician was great. However, I, on the other hand, punked out and nearly fainted after she withdrew two measly tubes from my Godly arm. After seeing my face turn a light green, my wife and the the two vampires in the office panicked and wanted to take my blood pressure and monitor my blood sugar. Fuck that.

I egregiously declined and opted for a “sweating out” of this ordeal, while the two ladies there commented, in spanish, that “every man acts the same.”

We concluded our chat with them calling me a “pendejo,” much to my chagrin. My wife had to inform them that I “knew that word.” They all had a nice laugh, at Senor Tropicana’s expense—who, yet again, was greatly chagrined.

Separately, the market “shit the bedroom” today. I was not able to efficiently monitor it; so I am unable to give you cogent advice. Hower, I will tell you, with the certainty of 100 hungry lions inside a meat packing facility: there will be blood.

Top picks: [[SKF]], [[SRS]], [[FXP]], short [[TCB]], short [[Mi]], short [[LEH]] and short [[CHL]].

The market is always trying to steal your money. Case in point, had you bought into the “this is the final bottom” fiasco last week, you find yourself today pondering the very meaning of life and why the stock market is even worth your time.

The stark truth is: most people should not be invested in stocks. If you have debt or exorbitant amount of expenditures, you are a fucking idiot for investing.

In my opinion, if you have a liquid net worth of 1 million, only 10-20% of it should be in stocks. Far too often I’ve seen people lose it all, at the hands of Mother Market. It’s easy to get detached from reality, when dealing with the shenanigans of day to day investing—during an era of rampant fraud and corruption. However, try not to lose focus on the whole purpose of having money, which is to have fun.

If you’re not having fun, you’re doing something wrong. Fuck the market and it’s trickery. Go on vacation. Spend 10k on egregious shit. Your family will appreciate it and so will you.

In other newz, the market is quite busy taking vacation money from “bull fuckers.”

As a result, I grabbed my balls and sold short inordinate amounts of [[TCB]], [[CHL]], [[LEH]], [[CMA]] and [[MI]]. In addition, I am buying more [[SRS]].

By the way, “The Fly” has several big wins in store for the Godly folks at iBC. I am sure you see that ridiculous ad on the upper right and think: “that man has done lost his mind.” Truth be told, I lost my mind years ago. However, the next phase of my “internet life” will be one of genius.

More on this later.

To sum up today’s tape:

We’re going lower. Grab your balls and get short or take your money and go to Disney World.

NOTE: I will be out all day, due to a mandated physical. Yes, the physical is being mandated by Mrs. Fly. Fuck you.

UPDATE: I bought [[FXP]], SRS and even [[SKF]]. I sold some [[CLNE]] and [[FMCN]]. In general, I like green eggs and ham much more than bank stocks.

It is unbelievable to see how many International banking institutions were raped by U.S. mortgage scams. This, more than anything else, must piss off the euro-losers and asian dog eaters to no end. If I were an asian dog eater, I’d never buy U.S. paper again. Hell, I’m American and I’ll never buy a [[GM]] note or mortgage backed security— for as long as my bullshit dna allows me to breathe the filthy NYC air.

ANZ shares raped in early trading

ANZ said the fallout from the U.S. housing market collapse has spread into Australia and New Zealand by pushing borrowing costs higher, causing more companies and individuals to default. National Australia Bank, the country’s largest, on July 25 said provisions for credit market investments jumped fivefold, triggering the biggest share decline since 1987.

“Until trust is rebuilt and investors work out who owes what, and who’s going to lose what, there’s going to be uncertainty,” said Hans Kunnen, head of investment market research in Sydney at Colonial First State Global Management, which holds about $128 billion of assets. “It’s one of those stakes in the ground you’ve got to look for before things get better.”

Read full story.

UPDATE: 5 days dated, but relevant. Paul on housing bailout.

Developing…

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtWDlDlzfOY 450 300]

Aside from [[CLNE]] and [[FMCN]] longs, “The Fly” is back to mid-season form, with his timely [[SKF]], [[SRS]], [[FXP]] and [[TCB]], [[LEH]], [[MI]], [[BBT]], [[CMA]] shorts.

Even though I was greatly tempted, via soft whispers in my head, to sell short more banks into the close, I resisted. I am sure the “government cheese makers” will have some more “newz” for the market, come Monday morning. So, I’ve decided to hold my fire for next week.

Just know, most of you longs are in grave danger. Chrysler is no longer offering leases, banks are demanding 30-35% down on a new home and 30 year mortgage rates are north of 6.7%.

Good luck on that 2nd half recovery, fuck-face.

Look you, I do not wish ill upon my fellow man. I just want to bank a little coin off his despair, while listening to gangster rap music.

In all earnest, I hope the economy can get back on track. I remember and miss the days when I’d push old men, who were shorts stocks, into and down empty elevator shafts. However, my “calculator brain” has forced me into having a most dire outlook for U.S. equities.

Naturally, this can change with new data, specifically the collapse of commodity prices and loosening of credit standards.

In closing, if you’re the patriotic type, kill the chicoms, via [[FXP]]. Hell, they’re your future enemies, with their fucked up toys and disgusting shrimp farms.

Top pick: short TCB

UPDATE: Weekend viewing

UPDATE II: Even better economic commentary.