Very Hard to Win Here

We’re deeply oversold, amidst a Citigroup Inc. [[C]] meltdown. Who could write such a horror story?

This is “the no trade zone,” especially on a Friday afternoon.

Frankly, nothing else matters, but the fate of Citigroup Inc. [[C]] . Most likely, they will become the proud recipients of a “government deal,” a la AIG. Aside from that, everything is peachy. The world is round and my television is a rectangle.

Commodity stocks are bouncing, but I don’t trust them.

One thing to note is weakness in treasuries, thank God. Once this whole flight to quality love fest is over, [[TBT]] will be a dunk shot win.

Until then, go eat a sandwich, raise cash and go wax the car.

As the cold autumn NYC winds are whistling outside, the hobos roast marshmallows over flaming barrels of garbage. While everyone sleeps in NYC, the sound of sanitation workers spitting on the cold cement run rampant. Janitors are busy mopping the floors of the NYSE, while listening to meringue music—ignorant to what had transpired there the day prior.

In the NYC subways, young criminals are riding the train looking for a few iPods to steal. God willing, they may find someone stupid enough to flash an iphone, if only life were that good.

All around NYC, people scrounge around with hunched backs, worrying about margin clerks and how they will be able to retire off of such little capital. The drug dealers in Washington Heights are upset over the sudden lack of rich white kids, who once flooded their neighborhood in BMW’s, looking for blow.

The mood is somber and the times are desperate.

Once well to do Wall Street bankers find themselves without pay for the 6th consecutive month. And fledgling stock brokers, with an arrogant book of business, are suddenly saddled with large losses and several meetings with the frolicking faggots from FINRA.

In some dark corners of the city, old Asian men sell gremlins to old white guys, in order to put food on the table. And at the local sperm bank, the lines are long and the literature appears worn.

There is a certain seriousness to the city, as men with ski masks flash 357’s on liquor store cashiers and pundits, with oversized heads and undersized brains, crowd the studios of Fox news to say NO to more government bailouts.

At the 24 hour Pathmark, men with bad habits and a lot of debt stock the shelves with peanut butter jars and make sure the produce section is stocked with fresh bok choy, for the old Asian men who enjoy eating it with dinner.

Inebriated single, middle aged, women hurry themselves home, following another night of nothingness. And, at the zoo, the retarded nice goat, named Leonardo, pecks away at Lester the monkey, as if he were made from grass.

And in a far away land, many miles away from where indigenous marshmallow lovers knife each other in the scrotum, over the “nice flaming barrel of garbage,” men eating bok choy are putting a bottom in the world equity markets.

Now you can talk.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSZnAN2YzQI 450 300]

As I sit here amazed at what I just witnessed, I began to reminisce about this business and my experiences in the market. I remember, working as an intern, back in 1997 when the market broke 7,000. Everyone in the office was elated, high fiving each other, then going to the stairwell to do an 8-ball of blow.

Being young and rough around the edges, the significance of that moment went over my head. The only thing I could think about was how rich I was going to be and how much better I was than all of the old dudes around me.

All of those guys survived the crash of ’87 and knew a thing or two about bear markets. They embraced the window of market upside, as if it was their first blow job. Unfortunately, for them, they are probably readying to let off howitzer shells to their fucking faces right now.

I look at this tape and almost feel sorry for all of the people in the money management field. Almost.

Since 1997, the market has been one big fuck job after another. We’ve been through scandal after scandal, forcing investor attitude to deteriorate to the point of madness.

Almost 12 years later, shockingly enough, the Dow Jones is about to break 7,000 again— this time on the downside. For the regular Joe, relying on his mutual fund manager to build his nest egg, 2008 has been horrifically tragic.

People ask me “what now, what will happen next”? My answer is always the same: “who the fuck knows.”

Back in 1997, the internet was first being introduced to America and stocks were as hot as a pistol. Even after the Asian contagion and the LTCM crisis, deep down, everyone knew the market would rebound, because—fuck— we’re America, that’s what we do.

This time around, people are overlooking their staggered portfolios and wondering if they will have a job in three months. Confidence is nil.

One thing is certain: whatever these fucking imbeciles have been doing, over the past 12 years, is 100% wrong. Hopefully, despite what your political leanings are, Obama can offer better leadership and put a bottom in this market.

As for the market:

I sold out all of my National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and 50% of [[UYM]] for a massive loss. I don’t even want to think about it. I am still holding everything else, despite rumors of coked out brokers shooting their faces off with howitzers.

All of a sudden, I find myself a bailout lover.

Congress is not into helping out during times of duress. Those players have a vacation to partake in. After all, the democrats already won; why should they stick around and work?

We’re fucked every which way but loose. In light of a market meltdown, auto industry failure, banking crisis and a plain ol’ vanilla gay employment market, those cocksuckers are going on vacation. Don’t worry, they’ll be back December 8th to ask more stupid questions.

I don’t know what to say. You can’t go from down 200+ to up 200 to back down triple digits. The market is not able to take that much stress. Eventually, we’re going to have a fucking epic washout, unless we get some real leadership.

It makes no sense to buy stocks here, which is why I am buying. While it’s true, the oil sector is being machine gunned to death, I have hopes of some sort of miracle.

Nonetheless, the early rally has been defeated and pessimism is back in control.

As you know, my top buys are General Electric Company [[GE]] and Citigroup Inc. [[C]] , mainly as a bet that the whole house of cards does not fall.

Can the house of cards collapse?

Absolutely.

But, it has been my experience that the world does not end, even when it appears to be inevitable. While the pain is immense, trying to pick at names that have received the death card; the reward can be great.

Just know, the risks are extremely high now and is not for everyone. If you have a low risk tolerance, please, sit this one out.

Unlike past knife rides, I will not let these positions get away from me. Should they begin to mushroom cloud me, I will cut them loose.

Boy is this fun. What a stupid, asinine, industry I chose to gain employment in.

UPDATE: I bought 2,000 GameStop Corp. [[GME]] @ $19.09 and 2,000 UnitedHealth Group Inc. [[UNH]] @ $18.20

I bought 50,000 General Electric Company [[GE]] @ $13.15, 50,000 Citigroup Inc. [[C]] @ $5.10 and 10,000 [[UYM]] @ $9.95.

UPDATE: I am buying blocks of GE, C and UYM on a continuous basis.

UPDATE II: Now long over 100,000 [[GE]] and 200,000 [[C]].

UPDATE III: One last average down in National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , buying 10,000 @ $19.95.

UPDATE IV: I bought 30,000 Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] @ $12.55

UPDATE V: I sold out of my [[DUG]] position, north of $43.5.

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stocks because of this post, the world will end. And, you may lose money.

I’m covering my Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] short here, down below $14—despite knowing it will go sub-$10. I just have the craving to raise cash. It makes me feel as if I am stockpiling ammunition. I don’t want to be long or short right now. I just want to take trips to amusement parks, ride the rollercoasters, eat cotton candy and slap strangers with open handed slices of pizza.

My longs have been obliterated, including National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , [[ROM]] and [[UYM]] .

Frankly, I don’t know why I bought National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , considering I hate oil. I guess it was the volatility, coupled with past success in trading the name that made me do it. Nonetheless, it was a dumbass move.

I still own a decent amount of [[DUG]] . Believe me, I am tempted to sell that too. However, as long as I am dying in this NOV, I cannot sell DUG. It’s my oil hedge.

Speaking of oil: My guess, oil is going back below $20. This economy is not better than 2002. So, why should oil be 2.5x as expensive? It doesn’t make any sense.

At the end of the day, we know why oil was at $140 a few months ago: manipulation. Whoever goose stepped oil higher has been eliminated from the game of investing.

So sorry.

God willing we bounce today. Regardless of what happens, I will not buy more stock. The systemic risk is too high to get long, in an egregious way. You cannot risk too much, while Citigroup Inc. [[C]] , Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] , Morgan Stanley [[MS]] and General Electric Company [[GE]] are on the precipice of the bottomless pit.

UPDATE: I sold out of my [[ROM]] and [[MOS]] positions.

The Fresh Prince of Saudi Arabia is upping his stake in Citigroup Inc. [[C]] to 5% and said they (Citi) have secured 50 billion in private funding.

Excuse me? 50 fucking billion.

That has to be dilutive.

Bottom line: Citigroup Inc. [[C]] is too big to fail and to save. It’s one of those conundrums that must keep the Treasury and Fed Chiefs up at night. Under normal circumstances, Citi should rally on this news and drag this whore of a market, by the hair, with it. However, we’re just in death spiral mode now, saddled by crashing commodity and employment markets.

Just watch C.

I am flush with cash. I am up around 70% year to date and in a 50% cash position; life could not be better. While you sit there, in despair, all worried about bills and employment and shit, “The Fly” is trying on new white robes and dressing up in authentic Chinese garb, mainly for fun. You know, in order to roam around the office and just karate kick the trader/servant in the neck.

I think it’s fair to say, we are in a code red, melt the fuck down scenario right now. In my trading history, times like this, right now, are when it is hardest to buy, but can be most rewarding. On a rally, Citigroup Inc. [[C]] can double. On a rally, Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and MetLife, Inc. [[MET]] will clown rape short sellers.

We’re at a crossroads. Either we break or boom.

Place your bets.