Never Bet Against Cajun

Full disclosure:

I was going to stupidly bet against [[GOOG]] today, until Ragin’ emailed me and told me not to.  Luckily, I heeded his advice. I’m a big believer in momentum and  having a hot hand. Let me tell you, RC is on fucking fire. All of you should bow down to his glory and show him some respect.

For now, the trend remains up, as bad news is good and horrendous news is great.

On the long side, I still like oil plays, like [[RIG]] and [[NOV]].

Looking at [[SKF]], I’m sure there will be a great entry point soon, under $105.

Hell, we all know [[GOOG]], [[C]] and [[BAC]] will post disappointing numbers. Looking at the reaction to the share prices of [[JPM]], [[WFC]] and [[MER]], we might as well just pile the fuck into these burning houses.

Earnings? Who cares?

Just buy these stocks and take a few shots of heroin. Everything will be fine.

Ag stocks up too much?

Fuck you.

Those bastards are going up, since people like to eat and shit.

What else makes no sense?

How about shorting some oil and gold up here? While you’re at it, sell you euros and buy dollars.

Finally, tech is a safe haven. Never let anyone tell you differently. Ever.

Just go long some semiconductors, due to Chinese demand—which will never abate.

I’m in combat mode here, after being poleaxed in a variety of subprime short sales. However, I did book significant profits in some of my individual bear bets.

Here is a quick recap:

Covered all of my [[FED]], [[DSL]] and [[WM]] shorts.

Sold all of my [[VMI]].

Bought more [[SMN]].

Sold short [[POT]], [[MON]] and [[DECK]].

Long story short, I now have ample cash to be more flexible with my trades. As of yesterday, I was levered up to my eyeballs in downside plays. Don’t misconstrue. I still believe there is significant downside left in the market. I just need to be more cautious with my risk.

Going into the close, I would like to see [[SKF]] trade under $105 (my buy point). Also, I may bet against [[GOOG]]. Those fuckers are due to miss, and miss big.

Finally, with commodities running like mad, and the dollar in the shitbox, [[SLV]] and [[DGP]] look great here.

Anyone?

After all, the Chinese stock market is down 45% from the highs, yet not a peep. When the exchange was ripping higher, like Nasdaq 1999-2000, it was the talk of the town. That bow tie fucker, Jim Rogers, was saying it could go to 10,000. All of the pundits were predicting it would surpass the Dow; yet here we are at 3,000 and change.

Odd, no?

Like the Nasdaq of 2000-2002, I believe the Shanghai bubble has popped. But, for some reason, no one wants to talk about the ramifications. How about the negative wealth effect that is coupled with steep market declines? I’m sure many speculators have been wiped out, just like all of the dot com buyers in 2000.

I believe, people are in denial when it comes to China’s problems, because they (China) have been ordained as the “new great power” of the 21st century.

As you know by now, without the great demand for resources and goods from China, the “global growth story” would be derailed and its train sent off a cliff into a ravine.

All I’m asking is this:

Is the mind numbing decline in the Shanghai telling us something? Or, should we just ignore it and buy Chinese stocks because the Olympics is coming?

No doubt, most of you paper pushers will opt for the latter.

It is hard being a bear. Frankly, “The Fly” is not accustomed to betting on world destruction or “wishing” for doom to strike those who bet against him. However, his superior “calculator brain” tells him “fuck the world, it’s going lower.”

Take a look at [[NOK]], shall we?

How do you want to spin that bad news?

Let me guess:

NOK blows. [[RIMM]] rocks.

Fair enough. That makes sense.

How about the [[MER]] disappointment? Spin that.

Hang on, I’ll do it for you:

It’s a kitchen sink quarter. Soon, they will be writing up those toxic securities, leading to 10’s of billions in balance sheet gains.

Thus, the market should rip higher, again.

Also, a splendid argument.

How about the fact that MER posted a larger writedown on their Alt-a paper (good credit mortgages) than subprime? Does that concern you?

Answer: Fuck no. Just buy a Chinese solar burrito stock and do a few lines of coke.

Anyway, I’m a bit busy here today, dealing with all sorts of tedious issues of business. In the meantime, be sure to bottom dip some bank stocks down here, since the worst is now behind us.

In all seriousness, I will be raising cash today, covering my shorts in [[FED]], [[DSL]] and [[WM]]. With the proceeds, I will redouble my efforts in loser positions.

More on this later.

UPDATE: Mr. Mortgage explains the Alt-A issue:

I’m a bearshitter.

Good Lord.

 BEHOLD:

Sell stocks quickly. They are all bad, gay and evil.

Nigel Adonis,Voodoo Practology, PHD

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MO2tCBteW7U 450 300]

Today was the most egregious trading day of the year for “Dumb Fly.” As expected, I get all sorts of pile on type giving me financial advice in the comments section.

Oh Lord, I wish doom upon those who bet against me. Nonetheless, the banks weren’t up too much. However, should [[MER]] “delight,” expect to get your balls eaten by a jackal.

On the long side, I have [[RIG]], [[AAPL]] and [[VMI]] going on. Without a doubt, the spastic retards from VMI will disappoint with tonights earnings, considering Mother Market is into punishing “The Fly” with vicious losses.

Long story short: I’m not worried until 13,000.

NOTE: Because I just wrote that, the market will be at 13,000 tomorrow.

Good Day.

It’s rather amusing to see long time bears, all of sudden, bullish on banks. Keep in mind, these same people thought the *true* break up value of [[CENX]] was $2.

The Dow is at 12,550. This is not a breakaway market, but a rally within a bear market.

I will say this over and over again, until I’m blue in the face: it is impossible for the market to sustain a rally, with oil at $115, Natty above $10 and food commodity prices at record levels.

None of the above is a result of pure demand, but inflation. Do what you like. I will stick to my guns, protect my positions, via long hedges and bank on gold as a stable source of funds.

We now have a situation where earnings expectations are elevated. Any misses, like [[GE]], will knee-cap the rally.

With regards to Ag:

Forget it. These stocks have gone parabolic. Eventually the sector will come crashing down, but not yet—most unfortunately.

Bottom line: It’s only a matter of time when investors realize the monumental headwinds in the way of growth.

As for the banks:

Buy them? Please. Their businesses will never be the same. Sell them into this rally.

NOTE: Every two weeks the market rallies 200-400 points in a day.