BEAR MARKET

Hey, guess what, asshole? We’re in a bear market. You didn’t think the market would be up in 2008, did you?

Unlike some of you, I have traded through a bear market, of epic proportions, and it’s not fun. Bear markets are chockfull of misdirection, where asshole dip buyers constantly give hope, but bearshitters crush them.

I have no interest in trying to figure out the daily machinations of the market. Instead, I’m geared, better yet, built, to endure over the intermediate term.

During today’s tape, banks got “deballed” in early, mid, and late day trading—spearheaded by the fortune cookie morons at [[LEH]].

I have a short list of banks/brokers worth keeping on deathwatch.

They include, “The Fly’s Reverse Four Horsemen”: [[FED]], [[DSL]], [[CORS]] and [[FHN]].

On the brokerage side, I despise: [[LEH]], [[MER]], [[TWPG]] and [[COWN]].

For good measure, I spit on: [[FITB]], [[HBAN]], [[WM]] and [[SUSQ]].

On the long side, I am losing patience with my ethanol plays. However, it’s worth noting, [[BIOF]] is being walked up like a motherfucker.

While it’s true, oil is at the bargain basement level of $125ish. It’s also true, natty NEVER trades down. That fucks America, in a preposterous way, too.

My favorite natty plays are [[ARD]], [[TXCO]], [[SWN]] and [[NGAS]]. I no longer sanction long trades in the refiners, after this recent run.

You’ve been warned.

All in all, we’re in a bear market. Don’t look now, we are quietly edging near the March lows. A few hundred points to the downside, then all of the assholes will come out of the woods to declare: “We’re gonna fucking retest the lows.”

Now, the market can get inside a little hand basket and venture off to hell.

“The Fly” is about to enter a few meetings. I’ll be back, later on this evening. While, I’m gone, make sure my positions cooperate.

Top pick: [[FXP]]

NOTE: In no way is this post an endorsement of Senator Obama. I’ll have you know, “The Fly” will be voting for Calvin Coolidge, yet again (think time machine).

Here are the components, for you chart lovers:

ICBC

CM Bank

China Life

China Mobile

Ping An

China Shenhua

CCB

China Telecom

CNOOC

Petro China

China Mobile represents 11%, iCBC 8.5%, China Life 7.7%, PetroChina 6.5%, etc.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gg7qenzhnZ0 450 300]

Bernanke must be smoking crack pipe, worrying about “inflationary pressures” and shit. Things are more expensive “thanks” to global growth, not the “i” word. We, as Americans, martyr ourselves, so that people in India can have 1 1/2 meals per day.

The Chinese have tossed their bicycles to the junkyard, where they will be melted and sold on the open market, and replaced them with BMW’s. Everyone in the world is rich, despite a liquidity “crisis” of epic proportions.

Look at the shares of [[POT]], [[MON]], [[MOS]], [[CF]], [[CMP]] and [[LNN]]. Do the shareholders of those stocks worry about [[LEH]]?

Also, don’t forget about good ol’ [[X]]. That fucker is booking: I said booking, mind you, to $300.

Everything that can be eaten or smelted is to be bought, with impunity, for eternity.

At the end of the day, if a “bag o’ rice” costs you $200, that’s damn fucking good for the rice producer, no?

Or, if gasoline costs $400 per gallon, that’s chockful of good for the oil producer, no?

That’s “global growth” kids. That’s all it is. It’s a few guy making coin, off of a bunch of lazy retards. We’re talking billions of retards (lower-middle class), people. That’s a lot of money to take.

Scavenger economics 101.

Class dismissed.

I bought 5,000 [[QTWW]] @ $2.80. And, I bought 1,000 [[DAR]] @ $16.90.

Disclaimer: If you buy QTWW or DAR because of this post, the next time you go on a road trip, you will get 4 flat tires. And, you may lose money.

You can smell the panic, can’t you? The wagons are circling around [[LEH]] and they are going to be forced to raise capital, in the most egregious dilutive way. I know the banks have been shaking the banana tree for capital. I believe the number is upwards of 125 billion dollars (I do not keep track). To think that they still need capital, after all the money that was raised, is shocking and gay.

Case in point what a little leverage can do to your business: BSC, LTCM. The fact of the matter is, the credit crisis has not gone away. The toxic paper on the banks’ sheets are still toxic, due to a depressed housing market.

Just the other day, I decided to call an old client (old in number of years, not age). He had about 3 million dollars with me and was a pretty sophisticated guy. He was young, rich and lived in a 4 million dollar house.

He was in the real estate development business. He’d build great big houses and sell them for absurd profits. On the side, he was a big time real estate speculator, always looking to flip for a quick profit.

A few years ago, he took all of his money out of the market, due to his struggling real estate business. He thought it was a good idea to sell his stocks and put the money to work “in his business.”

Sadly enough, after speaking with him, I found out he lost everything. He is now in bankruptcy and his 4 million dollar house is in foreclosure.

The moral of the story: don’t ever think it can’t happen to you, because it will.

When managing money, I always plan for the worst case scenario—but hope for the best. This is why, to a large degree, I haven’t been out there, with guns blazing, trying to catch the trade of the day or week. As you know, I have been hedged with short positions, since November of 2007. In my estimation, and I could be wrong, the market will trade much lower, over the next 6 months.

If I’m correct, I will be rewarded with gold rings and large cannisters of ambrosia. Being wrong is not an option, since it never happens for an extended period of time.

See, “The Fly” is like the New York Yankees. He may lose a few games, but at the end of the day, he’s winning the World Series and punching some old guy in the face, with a jelly donut.

Top pick: [[FXP]]

Yoga is for asshats.

What, you want to live forever?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMeWAtNIPxc 450 300]

The market closed strong, as the asshole dip buyer put some money to work—late in the day. For a bounce, I bought some [[WB]]. Let’s see if it sticks.

All in all, “The Fly” is becoming increasingly bearish. However, he does have a multitude of long positions that may need to be clipped, in the event of a full fledged market retreat.

I’ve done well with “The Bank of Cocaine” aka [[BAP]]. However, it may be time to take some profits.

It appears the U.K. is starting to “enjoy” a housing crisis of their own. I wonder what the ramifications will be? Perhaps higher equities?

I think not.

For the time being, the energy trade is still intact. Some of my positions include: [[ARD]], [[FTK]], [[NOV]], [[RIG]], [[PCZ]] and [[PZE]]. They all look good.

Expect tough times ahead. If you have bountiful gains, consider taking them, prior to smoking a large cuban cigar, with a large serving of aged Portuguese Port.

In short, “The Fly” is in control of an egregious time machine. Let’s see if the bulls will fight back tomorrow.