These are happy times for bulls. Nothing seems to stop the march higher, not war, egregious bank losses or unchecked gains. Naturally, when bad news is ignored the markets are in good shape. For the time being, I will accentuate my bullish picks, as my shorts get juggled around by drunken clowns. However, keep in mind, I still loathe the market and wish it lower, on a second by second basis.
Okay, putting on my bull hat (it has two knives and a gun on it), I can tell you retail will benefit from the bullish sentiment. And, any company that has been hurt by higher oil should go higher too, now that commodities are “old hat.”
One obvious beneficiary is FedEx Corporation [[FDX]] . Coupled with that is Amazon.com, Inc. [[AMZN]] .
The thought process is to be long “early cycle recovery names.” If the U.S. picks up growth, both of the above names will benefit, almost immediately. Plus, I believe AMZN offers free shipping to its customers. So, any reduction in crude will definitely help their margins. Needless to say, it’s an erroneous argument, specious at best; but it is working.
On the retail end, stocks like Coach, Inc. [[COH]] , [[M]] and J. Crew Group, Inc. [[JCG]] have been blown up. They can run. And, for a dice roll, take a look at Zumiez Inc. [[ZUMZ]] .
In the food and beverage space, I like Hansen Natural Corporation [[HANS]] , under $25. I am somewhat gravitated to the name; don’t ask me why. This morning I bought a small piece. Basically, the stock is trading at a ridiculously low valuation. Plus, they’ve been hampered by raw material/transport costs too. With the recent commodity swoon, perhaps some of their input pressures will abate.
Once again, the banks are running higher. I cannot and will not buy them up here. No fargin way.
Buying the banks here is just asking for a beat down. No thank you, Mother Market, I’ve had enough.
Speaking of lunacy, take a look at the casinos: Wynn Resorts, Limited [[WYNN]] , MGM MIRAGE [[MGM]] and Las Vegas Sands Corp. [[LVS]] .
That’s another sector way ahead of itself.
Let me guess the rational: jet fuel costs will lead to cheaper airline tickets. As a result, degenerates will flock to Vegas like bad clothes to old dudes.
I don’t think so. It’s just a short squeeze.
Speaking of short squeezes, fat folks are bidding up NutriSystem Inc. [[NTRI]] . There is such a large short position there. I am sure the breakdown of commodities helps them too.
Finally, it’s worth noting, gold and oil are at critical junctures right here. If the uptrend is really to be broken, it will happen soon—especially in gold. If not, well then, stocks like Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) [[AUY]] , Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[GG]] and FCX are incredible buys. With my money, I rather wait for confirmation, prior to taking that bet.
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same old same old markets drifting higher on light volume…patience and time will present the next low risk downside move.
Five stars, great analysis, very helpful to me Fly.
” no fargin way “, did you mispell something there?
You forgot to mention homebuilders (which is probably the best sector off the July bottom) and small caps, both of which are on fire.
Two large tropical systems moving towards the gulf. If OIL wont spike on this news. Then OIL is looking weak.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
I just bought KBH.
I am officially insane.
Developing…
Take a look at Qwest (Q)- that’s a 20% bounce in the last week. Their earning numbers came out last week, and were only slightly off, which in this business climate is kind of impressive.
It’s a stock I really like, long-term, but I can’t understand the jump at this point unless it’s a sell-off rally after the dividend.
“Though process?”
Fly, are you still big on AGU?
i’d much rather than be in vegas right now than fucking with this cursed market. odds are better there.
man you guys are always so fucking bearish it’s scary coming in here.
Look, ladies and gents, banks stocks are heading higher and higher
how’s that song:
your love keeps lifting me higher and higher… higher than lifted me before. Once I was downhearted… disappointment was my only friend.
play this when you’re not sure about bank stocks:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNfg2O_Wds8
Buy bank stocks on any reasonable down tick as that is the trade for the moment and ignore Fly’s anger. He’s just an angry young man.
Fly, how the fuck do you ignore 50% moves in some bank stocks like Morgan Stan and still tell us you hate the market. Dude!
Morgan St is heading for 60 buck(ets)
And you know how I knew this crap was going higher. You guys told me. You were mostly all so angry when i suggested it a few weeks ago.
I agree, I’m not even holding any KBH up here. Hard to think such low volume can push this market up so much.
Btw, your testim pick was in Barrons.
I bought MS at $36, before the big move. Then I sold it.
Shut up or I’ll get mad again.
I am somewhat gravitated to the name; don’t ask me why.
Can I ask you why you used gravitated in such an odd fashion?
___
Today’s stock maxim:
A watched POT never boils… it just heads to $100.
_
I sold out of all my AGU on Friday.
I posted it.
Short FED here, by the way.
Thank me later.
The all clear is in.
How do I know? Jim Rogers said so. He is buying shiploads of swiss cheese and he sold his property in Singapore and is in escrow on a 18,000 square foot home in Fresno.
Asking price?
$19,000.
Good times!
here’s my housing solution/conspiracy theory:
us govt encourages foreign money to buy up our inventory, raising house prices, then takes them away via eminent domain, pays off the foreigners quietly, smashes the houses, turns the land into refineries, roads, and parks, gives loans to the homebuilders to start building again.
also, i suspect all these newly-minted chinese yuppies will be fast-tracked into US green cards, so they can buy shit here. some will probably be building the giant, concrete wall (with cement from VMC), that’s going to block the sunlight from mexico in the winter.
dow to 15k by 5/09 easy.
yahoo ain’t got nothin on me.
I started buying CTX in late June when it was going down like 5% every day. It was gut wrenching, but I averaged down after my first purchase. After 9 consecutive quarters of writedowns, impairments, restructurings they still wanted to value it at less than 70% of tangible book even though bankruptcy risk was remote? It made no sense.
I think it will be a triple in three years. It’s still a good value trading below book, even though it’s up like 50% from the bottom in July.
Foreign vultures circle American homes
Monday, August 11, 2008
Sovereign wealth funds are looking to snap up cheap American houses, according to a published report.
The New York Post said an as-yet unnamed fund has been sniffing around single family homes that have been taken over by their mortgages and are selling for as low as 60 cents on the dollar. The paper said the fund had set aside $29-billion (U.S.) to get in on the market.
[amp]#8220;A sovereign fund would have two distinct advantages over other investors [amp]#8211; the depressed value of the US dollar makes the homes a bargain, and sovereign funds have deeper pockets,[amp]#8221; stated the report.
UBS analyst William O’Donnell said in a note that it’s the strongest sign to date that vultures are circling America’s housing market.
Away from stocks at the moment.
How’s this for cynicism.
Can anyone believe the Clinton team? They’re upset the Edwards affair was exposed earlier as Hillary would have won Iowa.
How ironic can you get. The Clinton team wanted the Edwards affair out earlier!!!!!
Are these people out of their minds or what? Them of all people
Wolfson: Edwards’ Cover-up Cost Clinton the Nomination
Aides Say She Would Have Won Iowa if Edwards Affair was Exposed
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5553013&page=1
Fly,
I wish you would get mad again. I can’t handle both you and the markets acting all coy and the like.
Unfortunately, I believe that the cokeheads on trading desks will keep us from the liberation of Dow 11,000 for some time.
ahhh…politics. such a grand game.
Gold just pierced its 60 week ma (833). A line that has contained all selloffs for the last 7 years.
Bruce,
Going to $780 now, I think. Just un-ba-fucking-leave- able.
I heard the Spanish CB is selling 30 tons. Odd, no?
JG – I’d say you’re prob right aside fm the obligatory bounce … bot some SLV today 14.44 .. prob headed lower as well
the new CNBC pump is going to be the dollar trade. every night will end with, ‘buy the UUP, sell gold, sell oil’.
Bruce — you know $14.44 was the 61.8% fib line, yes?
That’s a good spot to catch a knife if you’re going to do it.
__
Jake,
do you still like SLW?
I still like it, it however is cranking me right now.
Still the best silver stock, but the whole sector is getting cannonballed right now.
I bought some more SLV today at $14.45. That’s just the metal.
@j:
I beg to differ with you about MS.
It’s over extended – ready for a correction and Fly did the right thing getting out before that point.
The 50MA is STILL below the 200MA and they just announced THIS:
“The bank said it would buy back retail auction-rate notes beginning no later than September 30. It also will make whole any clients who sustained losses from selling the securities between February 12 and now.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1140742620080811
You think that isn’t going to hurt?
How about this little paragraph right beneath the other one:
The New York attorney general has been conducting a broader probe of the securities, which were sold to investors as safe equivalents to cash but which have turned out in many cases to be difficult for clients to sell.
Hmmm.
I’ll pass on getting long MS.
As Fly said before “You go ahead..”