Look, look, look, look.
Oil can tank all it wants; it will not put people back into [[M]] , in order to buy another Polo shirt.
Take a look at the retailers. They are getting taken to the woodshed today, despite government stimulus.
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. [[WMT]] , Target Corporation [[TGT]] , Citi Trends, Inc. [[CTRN]] , Zumiez Inc. [[ZUMZ]] , Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]] , Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. [[ANF]] , [[BONT]] , The Dress Barn, Inc. [[DBRN]] , [[CHS]] , American Eagle Outfitters [[AEO]] , The Gymboree Corporation [[GYMB]] and J. Crew Group, Inc. [[JCG]] are all down.
In order for the market to run, what exactly will you hang your hat on?
The banks? Are you serious?
With oil weakening, remember that oil stocks have been the best performers in the S&P. And, on top of that, money managers, worldwide, are heavily overweight the names.
So, ironically, a steep dip in energy related equities may in fact hurt the financials, instead of buoying them.
I refuse to sell [[FXP]] , until it breaks $100. It is a fact that both China Mobile Ltd. (ADR) [[CHL]] and China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (ADR) [[LFC]] (biggest holdings in FXP) have serious headwinds in front of them. For one, LFC is a big investor in China’s stock market, which is down more than 50%, year to date. And, CHL has been forced into China’s hardline business, a slow growth endeavor.
However, for the time being, the market is obsessed with the daily ticks of crude. The market is always obsessing on things, like monolines, Bear Stearns, Lehman, Fannie, Countrywide and now crude. Like I said before, soon this will pass and the market will begin to focus on earnings.
Remember, we are in the middle of the summer. Most of the heavy hitters are out drinking whiskey, while gobbling monstrous pieces of shrimp cocktail.
In short, this market is behaving like an amateur, run by rookies. Don’t follow them off the plank, into the shark infested waters below.
NOTE: The news out of Citigroup Inc. [[C]] today is far from over, regarding Auction Rate Securities. All of the big banks were players in this space. Expect this to be the first of many settlements. Even little Calamos Asset Management, Inc [[CLMS]] has funds tied to that market.
UPDATE: Mr. Mortgage breaks down today’s housing numbers. They’re not as good as you think.
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Solid Gold.
edit: is anyone keeping a list of *good* looking debt or financial co’s to cherry pick during the chaos of the next leg down? For example, a smart (looking) guy in my building told me that TMCV has a very clean debt portfolio. Again, this guy only *looks* smart.
Any bonds, mortgage baskets, companies, etc. that people are keeping an eye on? How about pfd stocks? We had a nice 20% swing in pfd’s during the last “shitting of the shower.”
On another note, I still like the Canadian trust trade. HTE is now yielding 19.29%, and PGH is at 15.85%. If oil is going up, you can lock in the monthly div. profits and then counter it with DUG.
“Don’t follow them off the plank, into the shark infested waters below.”
I’m licking my chops already – come to papa…
I like the kindlier, gentler Mr. Fly.
These recent observations don’t even sound gay.
They may not be buying Polo shirts, but KO, PEP, are holding up fairly well with just a slight lag in purchases of new offerings. I will believe we are in a hard recession when I see people drinking pond scum instead of paying $1.19 for a fountain drink, or $1.99 for a sports/energy drink.
People will always buy PEP. That’s defensive.
What is this your first day investing?
OK bitches I just got back from a 6 (six) martini lunch that coinsisted of a 38 ounce rib eyed steak lightly peppered and heavily salted. No salad, beans or couscous you pussies. Oh, and by the way the steak was fully raw, BURP.
I will now take your money and spend it on ridiculously frivolous things like 3lb frozen snickers bars and cuban cigars.
Defensive
Defensive? Against what?
Seriously Fly, what are PEP and KO defensive against? Oil shortages? Recession? Inflation? How do they rate “safe haven” status exactly? If people quit spending they will go down with all the rest. You’ve got the lingo down, and the designer “trade of the day” but common sense is sadly lacking at times.
Matter of fact, unless I’m banned again I’ll make a peanut gallery post that blows your “defensive” illusion to smithereens.
People buy soda pop, no matter what.
As for Mr. Pharm:
Yes, get ready to buy oils, for a trade of course.
One can make his entire year by timing the next leg up in oils. Like the financials, when they spike it will be furious.
All you have to do is look back into past swoons and see the share prices of PEP and KO hold their butter.
Class dismissed.
INTC is going through the roof today.
So I’m thinking for the market to run, there needs to be more news like what CSCO said.
My Good Sir, Mr. “The Fly,”
It is heartening to see that even with the softening of your language, your wit and market observations remain sharp.
Please do carry on.
Defensive stocks are invincible, the Fly has spoken.
Dear Mr. Woodshedder,
Do not misconstrue strength in one stock as the foundation for the entire market, my good man.
Instead, look at the entirety of the market, in all of its glory.
There, you will find equities like MER and AIG that look rather frightening.
So bonds are saying we go lower yet we are moving higher again. I want to reload some shorts but do I dare go one way or the other here? I am trying to trade lightly but Fly your convincingly bearish. What do I do?
Uhmm, let me know when Mr. Market cares what Mr. Mortgage thinks.
Scum:
Defensive stocks are not invincible, but offer little upside to short sellers.
I would not buy them, unless I needed yield.
In other words, if I am to short something, I want to make 50% doing it.
KO and PEP rarely give you that type of downside.
Trade light until late August.
We will rally until then, the whoosh.
Elevator down.
However, if you would like to join me in my protest against the current quoted price of VMC, you are welcome to do so.
I do believe, however, my “protest” will result in a wakening up of upper management and their schlockhouse ways.The jacking up of prices into a housing depression can and will be corrected, only if worldly men, such as myself, stand up and say “no” to their abrasive and non-gentlemanly ways.
Down with the blackguards, I say.
Fly my faggot broker doesn’t have any VMC to short, I have tried for 3 days now.
Wood sez:
INTC is going through the roof today.
Draw your fibs (on the two year chart) starting with the March ’07 lows (base), and finishing at the December ’07 highs.
Note where the 38% fib resides.
Odd, no?
(No, not really.)
__________
By the way instead of shorting VMC I am going after the fucking welders. Fuck LECO.
Fly, the same 25% down side happened to PEP and KO that did to M during the post 2k slide. Is it tradable, maybe not, but I was looking for confirmation of your thesis. IMO, the “defensive” plays are almost all heavily reliant on transport, which makes them vulnerable. Even WMT has been sliding sideways for ten years. You NYC types wouldn’t know a recession if it bit you in the butt because you live in a bubble your whole life. Defensive? It’s just a word, they’re all coming down. Now, continue mocking me at will.
Tommy has been requesting a lot of happy endings lately. He says his wife won’t touch him anymore, and that he’s been getting a lot of angry calls from “Uninformed” and “Confused Idiot” clients. The poor guy is so tight right now.
PEP and KO are defensive because they are cheap, calorically dense and taste good. Class dismissed.
Gapp:
I have stock.
Anyway, you can always go with the October 65 puts.
No need to short VMC til it breaks $65.
Any thoughts on HANS today? I grabbed some calls yesterday.
Anyone else buy more UNG today? Of course not, but I did like a f#@kin m0r0n.
A client of mine works at LECO.
He has made a fortune in that stock.
HANS is very cheap.
This is the kicker:
With Bud selling out to Imbev, it is likely that Imbev will cancel their distribution agreement with HANS, which would be a major setback.
However, this has not been confirmed and may prove to be a great buying opp at these levels.
Here’s the good news on Vulcan, Captain.
Sensors indicate an immediate triangle pattern scheduled to come to resolution by 4pm today. Keep an eye on $66.
And now for the really good news, Captain.
There are hot Vulcans!
No defecant, sir. Observe:
_
y issit when i click on any links to watch cnbc videos it doesnt work . The link directs me to the cnbc video but no video just blank grey square
Scum Bucket Bitchez Says:
have you looked at the charts of pep and ko. they are defensive.